May 25 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Recession Question: Raising the Odds to 40%
Might the only recession we have to fear be one triggered by recession fear itself? It’s possible that we could talk ourselves into one. So while we still expect the economy to grow through the end of next year, we are raising the odds we assign to a recession scenario from 30% to 40%. That lowers our stock-market sights for this year and next. … We have new estimates for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, profit margins, P/Es, and price targets, which we still see at a new high late next year. … Also, we explain what has caused recessions in the past and why we don’t see those dynamics developing now. We’re far from alone in our optimism: Analysts keep raising their earnings estimates, and insider buying has been on fire.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 23.

Markets
S&P 500 falls, Snap warning drags tech as Nasdaq loses 2% | C
Stocks slump on growth concerns, bond yields slip | R

Central banks
Fed Searches for the Magic Number to Cool a Red-Hot U.S. Housing Market | W

Global & food
Inflation, Rising Rates Curb Global Economic Growth | W
Food crisis fuels fears of protectionism compounding shortages | R

US
Sales of newly built homes tumbled over 16% in April while prices soared | C
Is the spike in gas prices good for America? | The Hill
U.S. Births Increase for First Time Since 2014 | W
What to Know About Gen Z in the Workplace | US News
Biden administration says it has not ruled out export curbs to ease fuel prices | R
 
Industries & companies
Autos: Electric vehicles are in short supply. Here’s what you can find as gas prices soar | C
Tech: Tech Stocks Continue to Fall After Snap’s Profit Warning | W

Geopolitics & trade
Biden says his Taiwan comments don’t reflect a change in U.S. policy after drawing ire from China | C
Russian and Chinese jets deliver pointed send-off on last day of Biden Asia trip | R
Russia wages all-out assault to encircle Ukraine troops in east | R
U.S. bars Russia from paying bondholders through American banks, increasing default risk | C
China Faces Growing Pressure to Iron Out Audit Deal With the U.S. | W