May 9 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Inflation Peak-a-Boo
We concur with Fed Chair Powell that getting inflation back to Earth needn’t crash our strong, liquid economy. The Bond Vigilantes aren’t as far behind the inflation curve as the Fed: They’ve already tightened credit conditions in the financial markets significantly. We expect inflation to peak this summer between 6%-7% and to recede to 3%-4% next year with no recession. … We may have spotted the first signs of peaking inflation already, in lower three-month than y/y rises of several price and wage measures. … But there are certainly plenty of indicators that cast doubt on the peaking-soon scenario. … Also, a movie review: “Summit of the Gods” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 2.
Markets
Market’s 2022 Slide Has Already Changed Investor Behavior | W
Rates Are Rising and Stocks Are Taking a Beating. It Won’t End Soon. | BR
The Stock Market Looks Like a Bear. How to Avoid Getting Eaten. | BR
Big Up Big Down Days – The Big Picture | ritholtz.com
Global
Port Labor Talks Pose New Complication for Supply Chain | W
US
With Higher Pay and Better Hours, Teens Jump Into the Job Market | W
Pay Raises Are Historically High. Inflation Is Still Eclipsing Those Gains. | W
Hospitals Look to Raise Treatment Costs as Nurses’ Salaries Increase | W
Why is there a union boom? | C
They Came, They Hiked, They Stayed: Retirees Lift Fortunes in Rural America | W
The cities Americans moved to the most in 2021, according to Penske | C
Energy secretary: Why feds are spending $2.5 billion on carbon capture | C
Economic growth is generally modeled exponentially. But, what if that’s wrong? | Vox
China
China Remains an Outlier in a World of Surging Inflation | W
‘Stop asking why’: Shanghai tightens COVID lockdown, Beijing keeps testing | R
Geopolitics & trade
EU edges towards oil sanctions on Russia, no deal yet | R
How the West should respond to China’s search for foreign outposts | E
Industries & companies
Autos: The Future of Transportation Is a Lot More Than Tesla. How to Invest. | BR
Autos: GM’s Stock Is a Buy—Even Though the Company Must Do More to Challenge Tesla | BR
Autos: Toyota Is Trying to Catch Up in the Crowded EV Race. It May Be Too Late. | BR
Autos: Ford is selling 8 million Rivian shares, sources say | C
Biotech: This Biotech Company Sees DNA Testing as Formula for Growth | BR
Communications services: Meta is opening a store as VR headset sales inch closer to mainstream | C
Health Care: Wearable devices are connecting health care to daily life | E
Tech: The Tech Industry’s Epic Two-Year Run Sputters | W
Travel: Travel Is Recovering, but Travel Stocks Aren’t. Here’s Where the Opportunities Are. | BR
Corporate finance
Mergers Have Slowed, but a Wave of Deals Could Be Coming | BR
Musk’s $44 billion Twitter buyout challenged in shareholder lawsuit | R
