May 3 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Too Much Pessimism?
To look at analysts’ record-high and rising estimates for the companies they follow, you’d never guess that investors are sweating bullets over prospects for the US economy. But are their fears of imminent recession justified? Today, we tackle that question, assessing both the negatives that investors are accentuating as well as the positives that some economic indicators are signaling. Importantly, the US economy is shipshape. … And we remind readers: Corrections, such as the S&P 500 is in now, tend to turn into bear markets only when investors’ recession fears materialize; when they fail to, valuation multiples tend to rebound.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 2.

Markets
U.S. stocks gain in seesaw session, benchmark Treasury yield hits 3% ahead of Fed | R
Stocks Climb After Worst Month Since 2020 | W
50% of market is in a bubble, Dan Suzuki warns as Fed gets ready to meet | C
U.S. Treasury: 10-year Treasury yield tops 3% for first time since 2018 | C

Central banks
Fears of a Fed mistake grow as this week’s anticipated interest rate hike looms | C

Global
Facing a Wheat Crisis, Countries Race to Remake an Entire Market on the Fly | W

US I
U.S. manufacturing activity slowest in more than 1-1/2 years as workers quit | R
Mortgage rates surge as home affordability nears record worst | C
-1.4% GDP Just Reminds Us of the Abject Stupidity of GDP | FO

US II
Home Buyers Are Finding Ways to Take the Sting Out of Rising Mortgage Rates | W
How much in student debt could Biden forgive? What’s on the table | C
New York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel Finds a Rocky Path to Condo Conversion | W

Europe
Euro zone factory output growth stalled in April | R

Geopolitics & trade
In shift, Germany could back immediate EU ban on Russian oil | R
Ukraine evacuees flee to safety after ordeal in Mariupol steel works | R
Was Russia’s decision to cut off natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria a mistake?  | Vox
 
Corporate finance
Spirit Airlines Rejects JetBlue Bid, Sticks With Frontier Deal | W
 
Crypto
Warren Buffett wouldn’t spend $25 on ‘all of the bitcoin in the world’ | C

Beyond markets
California Four-Day Workweek Bill Is Shelved for Now | W