March 28 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Twists & Turns of the Yield Curve
Two different yield-curve spreads are sending contradictory signals, and one of them is giving some investors the recession heebie-jeebies. But the other, more “official” yield-curve spread suggests no recession in sight, and ditto most other leading indicators. We see a stagflationary environment this year, with real GDP growing an average of 2.0% per quarter and inflation remaining persistent. … Also: A couple of short-maturity spreads relative to the federal funds rate likewise signal no recession. And we look to the Fed for insights on its chances of executing a soft landing and on the significance of various spreads.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 21.
Markets
Stocks could take their cue from oil, inflation and interest rates in the week ahead | C
The Riskiest Bets in the Stock Market Are the Most Popular | W
Central banks
The Fed Might Raise Rates by a Half-Point. How It Could Play Out. | BR
Fed’s Best Hope Increasingly Looks Like a ‘Semi-Hard’ Landing | B
Energy
Oil Prices Stay High as Russian Crude Shortage Hits Market | W
Natural-Gas Industry Gets Boost as Biden Shifts Stance | W
Ukraine War Drives Up Cost of Wind, Solar Power | W
Why energy insecurity is here to stay | E
Cutting fuel taxes is a bad idea | E
US
Biden job approval fall to lowest point, amid Russia and inflation worry | C
President Joe Biden to propose new 20% minimum billionaire tax | C
Capital Spending Boom Helps Raise Productivity, Contain Costs | W
The Great Resignation Is Beginning to Reverse Course. | BR
What happens when Amazon comes to town | E
Europe
The EU’s unity over Ukraine has given it surprising heft | E
Geopolitics & trade I
Volodymyr Zelensky on why Ukraine must defeat Putin | E
Ukraine willing to be neutral, says Russia wants to split nation | R
How Vladimir Putin provokes—and complicates—the struggle against autocracy | E
Putin Doesn’t Realize How Much Warfare Has Changed | The Atlantic
Biden says Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ in sweeping speech on Russian invasion of Ukraine | C
Biden Team Seeks to Temper Remark on Putin as U.S. Allies Object | B
Geopolitics & trade II
U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Is Under Way Because of the Russian War | BR
Putin, Xi and the End of the Global Economy as We Know It | B
Xi’s gamble on Putin may be the most dangerous of his 9 years in power | C
Industries & companies
Media: Netflix and Other Streaming Companies Are Winning Hollywood. Why Investors Are Losing. | BR
Tech: Everyone Thinks Rising Interest Rates Are Bad for Tech Stocks. But Are They? | Institutional Investor
Technology & cryptocurrency
Welcome to the Very Meta World of Virtual Real Estate | BR
Crypto: Britain to reveal stablecoin regulation plans, sources say | C
Virus
Sweden—Once Mocked for Its COVID Strategy—Now Has One of the Lowest COVID Mortality Rates in Europe | ampproject.org
China must eventually learn to live with the coronavirus | E
Pfizer, Moderna and J&J Face Shareholder Pressure to Broaden Covid-19 Vaccine Access | W
Beyond markets
Inside Vanguard Mutual Fund Company With Bogle Gone, Tensions Are Brewing | B
From GM to Powerade, Brands Pitch Mental Health | W
