September 26 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Is Powell’s Path Forward Widening Or Narrowing?
The Fed has paused its rate hiking for now but not without warning that resumed tightening is possible. Either way, monetary policy will be kept restrictive for longer than investors previously expected, Fed Chair Powell has said. What does that scenario imply for the economic outlook? Peaks in the federal funds rate are coincident indicators of financial crises caused by restrictive policy, which often trigger credit crunches and recessions. That’s the big risk of the Fed’s higher-for-longer rate path. … We don’t expect that scenario—we’re in the soft-landing camp—but were it to occur, the highly leveraged commercial real estate market might be the epicenter of the financial crisis.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 18.
Markets
Wall St declines as rate worries keep Treasury yields elevated | R
Bond Traders Roiled by Fed See US Shutdown as Next Big Wild Card | B
$100 Oil Needs Western Drills to Stay Quiet | W
Central banks
The elusive Fed ‘soft landing’ nears. Why are Americans so mad about the economy? | R
Americans Finally Start to Feel the Sting From the Fed’s Rate Hikes | W
Government Shutdown Would Blindfold Fed in Piloting Course on Rates | W
US I
US consumer confidence ebbs in September | R
US Home Prices Rise to Record High as Market Bounces Back | B
US new home sales tumble in August | R
Florida Tops New York as Second-Biggest US Housing Market, Zillow Says | B
How Much Savings Do Americans Have Left, Anyway? | W
US II
US Government Shutdown Looms as House Moderates Try to Keep It Short | B
US Government Shutdown Will Hurt Efforts to Replace Aging Workforce | B
China
China’s Business Environment Is Deteriorating, U.S. Companies Say | W
China powers global aluminium output to record high: Andy Home | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford Tried to Sell the Electric Mustang to China the Tesla Way—It Didn’t Work | W
Commercial Real Estate: Commercial Real Estate’s Next Big Headache: Spiraling Insurance Costs | W
Materials: US thermal coal exports jump to 5-year highs on Asian demand: Maguire | R
Media: Taylor Swift’s ‘The Eras Tour’ concert film set for global theatrical release | C
Pharma: The Big Pharma Stock Trade: Weight Loss Is In, Covid-19 Is Out | W
Retail: Organized retail crime and theft not increasing much, NRF study finds | C
Artificial Intelligence
You Can Now Talk With ChatGPT and It Sounds Like a Human (Pretty Much) | W