Dr. Ed's Blog

October 9 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers: Hotter For Longer
Today, we challenge another aspect of the hard landers’ narrative: the notion that consumers will retrench, leading the broad economy into a recession. True, many consumers must resume paying the student-debt piper soon, and many have depleted their excess pandemic saving. … But bigger forces are supporting consumer spending: Consumers simply don’t halt the spending they love to do when their incomes are secure and growing, as now, with wages rising and plenty of jobs to go around. And it’s retired Baby Boomers’ time to kick back and spend their ample nest eggs. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews “The Sixth Commandment” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Stocks Sink Across Mideast as Israel Goes to War With Hamas | B
Wall Street Is Worried the Bear Market Has ‘Unfinished Business’ | B
S&P 500 Faces Threat of Profit Warnings as Concerns About US Consumer Mount | B
Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds | W
Brent, WTI prices jump after Hamas attack on Israel | C

US
To understand America’s job market, look beyond unemployed workers | E
Job growth surges but Americans still think the economy stinks | C
The U.S. Economy’s Secret Weapon: Seniors With Money to Spend | W
Attack on Israel Raises Stakes for Republicans in Speaker Fight | W
The ousting of Kevin McCarthy: bad for America, worse for Ukraine | E

Europe
Rising bond yields are exposing fiscal fantasy in Europe | E
 
China
China’s greying population is refusing to save for retirement | E
How China’s Rich Are Using Underground Networks to Move Their Money Abroad | B

India
Why India hopes to make it into more big financial indices | E

Geopolitics & trade
War Returns to the Middle East | W
U.S. is sending a carrier strike group closer to Israel and will begin supplying munitions | C
Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks | W
Blinken says U.S. has ‘not yet seen’ evidence of Iran involvement in Hamas attack on Israel | C
Why investors cannot escape China exposure | E
 
Industries & companies
Pharma: Novavax Covid vaccine can still catch up to Pfizer, Moderna shots | C
Retail: Home Depot Tracked a Crime Ring and Found an Unusual Suspect | W
 
Corporate finance
Bristol-Myers Squibb to acquire Mirati in a $4.8 billion deal | C
Big-Company Bankruptcies Hang Over Economy | W
The Valuation Reckoning: When AI Startup Darlings Hit Stratospheric Levels | C

October 7 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Copper, Travel & AI
Investors worried about US inflation might want to take a look at copper prices, which have fallen ytd. Copper faces gleaming long-term fundamentals, with global demand poised to soar as the EV and other electrification markets take off. But the commodity’s recent price action has been dulled by investors’ economic pessimism. … Also: Jackie examines what’s been grounding the stock price indexes of most travel-related industries. … And: AI’s transformative reach extends way beyond OpenAI and Bard. A look at some startups’ popular AI offerings.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks reverse sharp losses | C
Bear steepening US yield curve dashes ‘soft landing’ hopes | R
Where big investors are hiding amid choppy markets | C
Copper Study Group expects big supply surplus in 2024 | R
China forex reserves fall to $3.115 trillion in September | R

US
Job growth surges but Americans still think the economy stinks | C
IT Unemployment Soars to 4.3% Amid Overall Jobs Growth | W
Could Steve Scalise Quell the House GOP Revolt to Become Speaker? | W
Kevin McCarthy denies reports he is considering resigning from Congress | C

Europe
Europe’s gas stocks at record high going into winter 2023/24 | R

Geopolitics & trade
China’s Factory Floor Is Moving—But Not to India or Mexico | W

Industries & companies
Autos: UAW, Mack Trucks workers to vote on deal | C
Cruise Lines: Cruise Lines Pursue Greener Journeys Ahead of New Climate Rules | W

Artificial Intelligence
Why AI Is Medicine’s Biggest Moment Since Antibiotics | W
Artificial Empathy Is Coming. Are We Ready for Emotions From AI? | W
A big AI and robotics idea that has attracted Walmart and Softbank | C

Corporate finance
The Oil Patch Is Primed for an Era of Megadeals | W

October 6 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Copper, Travel & AI
Investors worried about US inflation might want to take a look at copper prices, which have fallen ytd. Copper faces gleaming long-term fundamentals, with global demand poised to soar as the EV and other electrification markets take off. But the commodity’s recent price action has been dulled by investors’ economic pessimism. … Also: Jackie examines what’s been grounding the stock price indexes of most travel-related industries. … And: AI’s transformative reach extends way beyond OpenAI and Bard. A look at some startups’ popular AI offerings.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Stock Market News Today: Dow, S&P 500 Open Lower After Jobs Report Comes in Hot | W
Wall Street drops after jobs data, eyes weekly losses | R
Why Wall Street investors are freaking out | NN
‘Magnificent Seven’ returned 92% this year, but it’s risky for markets | C
The Bond Market’s Message | W

Central banks
US job growth smashes expectations raising prospects for rate hikes | R
Monetarism Is Back. It May Not Last. | W

US
Jobs report September 2023: Payrolls soared by 336,000 in September | C
Here’s where the jobs are for September 2023 — in one chart | C
Here’s a Historical Look at U.S. Employment by Sector | W
Inflation is ‘always going to be a risk,’ ADP chief economist says | C
The needless panic about government debt  | The Hill
If Trump Wants to Be Speaker, He’ll Need a House Seat | W
Why borrowing costs for nearly everything are surging | C

Geopolitics & trade
China Is Becoming a No-Go Zone for Executives | W

Industries & companies
Autos: UAW Strike Enters Fourth Week, Companies Brace for More Walkouts | W
Autos: U.S. Treasury details EV tax credit rebate rules | C
Autos: Tesla cuts Model 3, Model Y prices in the U.S. after deliveries fall | C
Health Care: US FDA still not satisfied with Philips recall; stock falls over 9% | R

Corporate finance
Fall of the zombies? Why corporate failures could surge in 2024 | R
Companies Borrow Against Their Assets in an Uncertain Economy | W
Exxon Mobil Closing In on Megadeal With Shale Driller Pioneer | W

October 5 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Copper, Travel & AI
Investors worried about US inflation might want to take a look at copper prices, which have fallen ytd. Copper faces gleaming long-term fundamentals, with global demand poised to soar as the EV and other electrification markets take off. But the commodity’s recent price action has been dulled by investors’ economic pessimism. … Also: Jackie examines what’s been grounding the stock price indexes of most travel-related industries. … And: AI’s transformative reach extends way beyond OpenAI and Bard. A look at some startups’ popular AI offerings.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Wall Street opens lower after jobs data | R
Barclays Says Only Stocks Crash Can Rescue Bonds, as Fed Likely Won’t Ease | B
US dollar’s rally supercharged by soaring real yields on Treasuries | R
High Gas Prices Reek of Low Cigarette Sales | W
Peak crude demand is fueling anger and argument in the world of oil | C

Central banks
Bond Selloff Might Force Fed to Rethink Shedding Assets | W
Recession Risk Grows With Surging Bond Yields, Fed Rate Hike in Play | B
We’re on track to whip inflation, so the Fed should leave interest rates alone | The Hill

US I
Is Your Next Mortgage 7% or 8%? Depends If You Shop Around. | W
US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; trade deficit narrows sharply | R
Inflation Is Only Half the Battle for Main Street When Borrowing Costs Surge | B
American Consumers Have Everyone Fooled — Even the Federal Reserve | B
Americans are deep in credit card debt, but Bidenomics threatens to make things even worse | FO

US II
McCarthy Ouster Has Democrats Raising Money Off Republicans in Chaos | B
Nancy Mace Explains Why She Nixed Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker | W
Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter | W
EV Factory Investment Brings Changes to American Small Towns | B

Geopolitics & trade
Blacklisted Chinese Chip Maker Does a Thriving Business With U.S. | W

Industries & companies
Autos: UAW Strikes Spare Automakers From Financial Pain—for Now | W
Consumer: America’s Food Giants Confront the Ozempic Era | W

Corporate finance
Birkenstock the latest shoe to drop in a tough IPO market | R
Intel to Split Off Specialized Chip Business as CEO Pursues Turnaround | W
Rivian shares sink after EV maker announces $1.5 billion raise | C

Technology
Neuralink rival Precision Neuroscience buys factory in brain implants | C
The Robots are Coming—to Collaborate With You | W
Bill Gates-Backed Startup Launches AI Chatbot for Personalized Movie, Book Picks | W
Smiling Kids, Gorgeous Sunsets: Is It Photo Editing or Just Plain Lying? | W

Cybersecurity
Clorox Reels as Cyberattack Woes Spur Analysts to Sour on Shares | B

October 4 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Debt Crisis Scenario
Are we headed for a debt crisis? Demand for Treasury bonds has fallen in the wake of Fitch’s federal debt downgrade at a time when supply has been escalating. Rising yields in response may clear the Treasury market but also reduce both demand for and supply of the private sector’s credit. A credit crunch and recession could ensue, possibly setting off a deflationary debt default spiral. … But that worst-case scenario isn’t inevitable. The Treasury bond yield may not soar above 5.00%, as increasingly feared, given our expectations for “immaculate disinflation” (i.e., without an economy-wide recession) and slowing real GDP growth. … Also: Joe’s analysis suggests the S&P 500’s Q3 earnings may hit a record high.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Investors Eye Profit Rebound After Yearlong Earnings Recession | B
Treasury yields retreat from 16-year highs after weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report | C
World’s biggest bond markets hit by relentless selling | R
Bond Selloff Threatens Hopes for Economy’s Soft Landing | W
Bond yields could race through 5%, market forecaster Jim Bianco warns | C
Emerging Market Bond Yields Are Sending a Worrying Signal | B
Oil falls over $1 on demand fears, Saudi confirms cuts to year-end | R
The World’s Dollar Addiction Is Hard to Kick | W

US
Mortgage demand falls to lowest level since 1996 | C
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tops 7.5% for First Time Since 2000 | B
Private payrolls rose 89,000 in September, much fewer than expected, ADP says | C
Predictable disasters: Big-spender states offer fewer benefits than their more prudent peers | Washington Times
What Happens Next in the House Speaker Race | W

Japan
Japan’s Top FX Official Declines to Say If Intervened on Yen (JPY USD) | B
Japan Is the Most Exciting Market in the World | W

Geopolitics & trade
China Is Suffering a Brain Drain. The U.S. Isn’t Exploiting It. | N

Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Temu, Called the Next Amazon Killer, Is Really Just a Dollar Store Killer | B
Health Care: Health care workers strike at Kaiser Permanente | C
Logistics: Uber will now pick up your UPS, FedEx and USPS packages | C
Pharma: Moderna combination Covid, flu vaccine shows positive data | C

Corporate finance
Amazon is being sued by the Biden administration’s FTC over antitrust violations | Vox

Climate
Homeowners Flock to Last-Resort Insurance Policies | W

Artificial Intelligence
SoftBank’s Son Says Artificial General Intelligence Will Soon Surpass Humans | W

Beyond markets
Opinion | Michael Lewis: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s last year in crypto | WP

October 3 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Bond Vigilantes Are On The March
What moves the bond market has changed recently and disconcertingly. The 10-year Treasury bond yield’s recent action—and nonreaction to economic news that typically moves it—suggest a shift in bond investors’ focus from what monetary policymakers may do to rising alarm about what fiscal policymakers are doing. The worry is that the escalating federal budget deficit will create more supply of bonds than demand can meet, requiring higher yields to clear the market; that worry has been the Bond Vigilantes’ entrance cue. Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we’re watching to see if the high-yield market is next. We are still counting on moderating inflation to stop the beatings in the bond market.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Dow Falls 500 Points; Meta, VinFast Stocks in Focus | W
Wall St dives as jobs data fans rate worries, Treasury yields spike | R
U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh economic outlook | C
Why a rout in government bonds is worrying | R

Central banks
The Fed Seeks to Up Its Influencer Status | W
Steady Economy Could Warrant November Rate Hike, Fed’s Mester Says | B
When Will the Fed Stop Raising Rates? That’s the Trillion-Dollar Question for Bond Investors | W

US
Mortgage rate heads toward 8% | C
Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are Overvalued | W
August job openings top 9.6 million, more than expected as labor market remains strong | C
Americans’ Growing Reluctance to Quit Their Jobs, in Five Charts | W
Despite Economic Risks, Companies Are Hanging On to the Workers They Have | W
Millennials on Better Track for Retirement Than Boomers and Gen X | W

Geopolitics & trade
Dalio says China-US relations are ‘on the brink of red lines’ | R

Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Amazon Used Secret ‘Project Nessie’ Algorithm to Raise Prices | W
Media: Netflix plans to raise prices after actors’ strike ends | W | R

Artificial Intelligence
Hedge Funds Struggle to Beat the Market With AI Stock Bets | B
CIOs Feel Heat From CEOs on Generative AI | W
AI and job losses: How worried should we be? | FO

October 2 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Some Good News & Not So
Last week’s plentiful economic news netted out to support our optimistic economic outlook through next year, bringing more signs of improving productivity, surging investment in manufacturing, and manageable inventories. Last week also brought some mixed news and some outright bad news, but we still see a 75% chance of a soft-landing scenario with disinflation and a 25% chance of a hard landing. Longer term, we’re still convinced that improving productivity will set the stage for a “Roaring 2020s” decade. Nevertheless, for the here and now, we are worrying quite a bit about the Bond Vigilantes’ hostile response to profligate fiscal policy. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “A Good Person” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Nasdaq rises on boost from growth stocks; Fed comments in focus | R
In the Market: US bond market signals the end of an era | R
Oil Producers Push for Bigger Voice in Climate Talks Ahead of COP28 Summit | W
Hedge funds using computers to sell up to $30 billion of stocks soon – UBS | R
 
Central banks
How the Fed Made a Worrisome Economic Signal Go Away | W
Fed’s Powell: Economy still working through the impact of the pandemic | R

US
Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow | W
Underlying Prices Cooled in August, Giving the Fed More Evidence of Softer Inflation | W
Why Consumers Are Mad About Inflation Even Though It Has Fallen | W
Why High Interest Rates and Energy Prices Are Stressing the Economy | N
The Apartment Market Is Hitting a Construction Lull | W
Money line on losers: Say it ain’t Joe vs. Don! | P

China
Does China’s Property Bust Make a Financial Crisis Inevitable? | W
 
Industries & companies
Autos: Rivian’s Quest to Build the Ultimate Electric Truck Burns Through Billions | W
Autos: UAW Strike Hurts Demand for Steel | W
Banks: Rising Rates Likely Hit Bank Balance Sheets in Quarter | W
Media: Why Netflix is Selling Pizza and Wedding Gowns Based on Your Favorite Shows | W

Artificial Intelligence
Microsoft CEO Testifies About Limits of AI at Google Antitrust Trial | W
How AI May Change Entrepreneurship | W
Is Your AI Model Going Off the Rails? There May Be an Insurance Policy for That | W

Climate
Temperatures in Spain shatter records as October kicks off | R
The Secret Behind the First $1 Billion Green Hydrogen Startup | W

Crypto
FTX customers who lost fortune are doubling down on crypto | C
 
Corporate finance
Germany’s Birkenstock targets $9.2 billion valuation in New York IPO | C

Beyond markets
Nobel in medicine goes to work that enabled creation of mRNA vaccines | C

September 30 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Semis, Earnings & Musk’s Robot
A new trend among big tech companies: DIY AI. Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft are developing AI chips in house rather than paying up for Nvidia’s products. … Also: Analysts expect much improved earnings growth for S&P 500 companies on the whole next year, but some industries with the strongest projected growth also have stock price indexes in the doghouse this year to date. Jackie points out which. … And: Inside the neural networks of Elon Musk.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 26.

Markets
Dow sheds more than 100 points Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrap worst month in 2023 | C
Once Unthinkable Bond Yields Are Now the New Normal for Markets | B

US
America’s Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes | W
House Republicans cancel planned recess as government shutdown looms | C
Shutdown imminent as House, Senate hold split courses on US government funding | R

Europe
Italy plans 21-billion euro asset sell-off to keep debt in check | R

China
China’s lottery ticket sales soar amid weak economy, job prospects | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: JetBlue raises flight attendant pay, union backs Spirit merger | C
Media: Peak TV Is Over. A Different Hollywood Is Coming. | W
Pharma: Medicare drug price negotiations: Judge denies request to block | C
Retail: Walmart Changes Pay and Titles for Corporate Staff | W
Tech: Apple will issue a software update to address iPhone 15 overheating complaints | C
Tech: Meta has Apple to thank for giving its VR conference added sizzle | C
 
Artificial Intelligence
Why You Soon Won’t Be Able to Avoid AI—At Work or At Home | W

Climate
India’s monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino | R

September 29 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Semis, Earnings & Musk’s Robot
A new trend among big tech companies: DIY AI. Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft are developing AI chips in house rather than paying up for Nvidia’s products. … Also: Analysts expect much improved earnings growth for S&P 500 companies on the whole next year, but some industries with the strongest projected growth also have stock price indexes in the doghouse this year to date. Jackie points out which. … And: Inside the neural networks of Elon Musk.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 26.

Markets
The 2023 Stock-Market Rally Sputters in New World of Yield | W
S&P 500, Nasdaq gain as softer PCE data supports rate-pause hopes | R
Bond Yields Up, Stocks Down. But Something’s Missing. | W
Investors Are Learning That Bonds Can Lose Money Too | FO
US equity funds see biggest weekly outflow in three months | R

Central banks
Underlying Prices Cooled in August, Giving the Fed More Evidence of Softer Inflation | W

US
US inflation outlook brightens as underlying price pressures subside | R
Citigroup CEO sees cracks emerging among consumers | C
U.S. Government Shutdown Could Delay Key Economic Data | N
Government shutdown fears grow as House begins vote on spending plan | C
Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis | C
Biden administration moves ahead with new plan to cancel student debt | C

China
China’s strong metal imports not as bullish as they seem: Andy Home | R

Geopolitics & trade
U.S.-China Chip War Over Taiwan Nears Moment Of Truth For S&P 500, Nvidia, Apple And The World | IBD
China Blocks Executive at U.S. Firm Kroll From Leaving the Mainland | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: United Airlines Pilots to Get Pay Raise of as Much as 40% | W
Autos: Ford CEO Farley says UAW is holding up talks over EV battery plants | C
Autos: UAW announces new strikes at GM and Ford plants, sparing Stellantis | C
Autos: A big EV purchase decision that’s not about the car model | C
Retail: Toys R Us to open new U.S. stores, and airport and cruise ship shops | C

Corporate finance
Exclusive: Carlyle in exclusive talks for $7 bln-plus Medtronic units deal-sources | R
 
Beyond markets
How Joe Biden’s Kin Profited Off the Family Name. ‘The Big Guy Is Calling Me.’ | W
Why 3.2 Million Children Probably Aren’t Headed Over a Child-Care Cliff | W
Bus Driver Shortage Forces Schools to Cut Service, Pay Parents to Transport Kids | W

September 28 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Semis, Earnings & Musk’s Robot
A new trend among big tech companies: DIY AI. Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft are developing AI chips in house rather than paying up for Nvidia’s products. … Also: Analysts expect much improved earnings growth for S&P 500 companies on the whole next year, but some industries with the strongest projected growth also have stock price indexes in the doghouse this year to date. Jackie points out which. … And: Inside the neural networks of Elon Musk.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 26.

Markets
Stock Market Selloff Pauses, Nasdaq Edges Up | W
Morning Bid: Doom loop momentum builds | R
U.S. Treasury yields: investors assess state of the economy | C
Asian stock market is trying European-style trading to reinvent itself | C
U.S. Crude Oil Hits Highs of the Year | W

US
August Home Sales Declined to Slowest Pace Since January | W
Rising Loan Costs Are Hurting Riskier Companies | W
Where Trump, 2024 GOP Candidates Stand on Key Economic Issues Ahead of Debate | B
Inside Vivek Ramaswamy’s Trump-Friendly Presidential Campaign | B
Government Shutdown: Standoff Brings Congress to the Brink | W

China
China Has Second Thoughts About Controlling Prices in Its Multi Trillion-Dollar Housing Market | W
Evergrande and Units Suspend Trading After Founder Put in Police Control | B

Industries & companies
Airlines: Delta CEO says carrier went ‘too far’ in SkyMiles changes, promises modifications after frequent flyer backlash | C
Autos: This Ford vs. GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America | W
Autos: UAW threatens to expand strikes again at GM, Ford, Stellantis | C
Autos: The UAW Wants Pension Plans Back. Is it a Good Idea? | B
Home Builders: Higher Rates Catch Up With Home-Builder Stocks | W
Pharma: AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb in Medicare drug price negotiations | C
Tech: Meta CEO Zuckerberg looks to digital assistants, AI to push metaverse | C
Tech: Meta announces new Quest 3 VR headset as Apple competition looms | C

Corporate finance
More CFOs Pull Back Spending Plans Due to Higher Interest Rates | W

Climate
Even Bill Gates is backtracking — the air’s gone out of the climate-crisis balloon | P

Beyond markets
Costco is selling gold bars and they are selling out within hours | C