Dr. Ed's Blog

March 11 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Stagflation, Russian Oil & Gas, And Carbon Credits
Stagflation—higher inflation with slower economic growth—may be upon us, suggests the NFIB’s February survey of small business owners. Most are struggling to fill open positions, which is perpetuating a wage-price spiral. Earlier this week, we raised our inflation outlook and dropped our GDP forecast—resulting in lower expectations for the stock market this year. … And: How will the US and Europe meet their energy needs with less reliance on Russian oil and gas imports? Jackie looks at this question from multiple angles. … Also: How is the EU carbon credit market weathering its first war? Spoiler alert: Not well.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 7.

Markets
Stock Markets Close Lower as Inflation Rises, War in Ukraine Continues | W
Wall Street closes lower as inflation hits 40-year high, inviting aggressive Fed tightening | R
Nickel Market Freeze Extended to Sort Out Big Trading Loss Amid Ukraine War | W

Central banks
There’s more inflation coming, as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rate | C
ECB Prepares to Raise Rates in 2022 as Stagflation Threat Looms | W

US
Inflation Reached 7.9% in February; Consumer Prices Are the Highest in 40 Years | W
February Inflation Was Broader Than Gas Prices | W
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says inflation could be high for a year | C
JPMorgan says labor shortage requires unconventional hiring | C

Ukraine war I
Besieged Ukrainians endure bombardments, with no breakthrough in talks | R
U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine | W
Unfounded Russian Claims of Biological Weapons Research in Ukraine Stir Fears of Wider Risk | W
Is Putin unstable? – WP
Russia’s war has already failed | Prospect Magazine
The Weapon the West Used Against Putin | The Atlantic
World Economic Forum Freezes ‘All Relations’ With Russia, Putin | epochtimes.com
U.S. VP Harris supports call for a war crimes investigation against Russia | Reuters

Ukraine war II
Economic Blacklist of Russia Marks New Blow for Globalization | W
Ukraine War Pushes Biden Toward Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia in Oil Hunt | W
U.S. Banned Russian Oil. Will Suspension of Gasoline Tax Be Next? | W
JPMorgan is winding down its Russia operations amid business exodus | C
Opinion: What keeps China from stopping Russia’s war | NN

Geopolitics & trade
North Korea developing new long-range missile system, U.S. official says | C

Industries & companies
Autos: Rivian changing battery cells to LFP, following Tesla, and high-nickel | C
Energy: Saudi Aramco joint venture to develop refinery and petrochemical complex in China | nationalnews.com

Corporate finance
Amazon stock has second-best day of 2022 on planned 20-for-1 split | C

Virus
U.S. extends airplane mask mandate through April 18 | C

Beyond markets
John Kerry warns of coming climate refugee crisis | P

March 10 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Stagflation, Russian Oil & Gas, And Carbon Credits
Stagflation—higher inflation with slower economic growth—may be upon us, suggests the NFIB’s February survey of small business owners. Most are struggling to fill open positions, which is perpetuating a wage-price spiral. Earlier this week, we raised our inflation outlook and dropped our GDP forecast—resulting in lower expectations for the stock market this year. … And: How will the US and Europe meet their energy needs with less reliance on Russian oil and gas imports? Jackie looks at this question from multiple angles. … Also: How is the EU carbon credit market weathering its first war? Spoiler alert: Not well.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 7.

Markets
World shares rise, oil falls 13% on diplomacy, OPEC nation’s pledge | R
Markets Are in Denial About Nuclear Risk by Willem H. Buiter | Project Syndicate

Energy
Biden and the Oil Industry Are at Odds, Clouding Effort to Tame Gasoline Prices | W
Oil jumps after UAE says it is committed to OPEC+ supply pact | R
Oil drops 12% for worst day since November as wild ride triggered by Russia disruption continues | C
Energy Secretary Granholm calls on oil, gas companies to raise output | C
Why EU didn’t include nuclear energy in plan to get off Russian gas | C
Gas prices are spiking — don’t expect sales of electric vehicles to follow | C

Ukraine war
Russian-Ukraine war will ‘get worse before it gets better,’ Army Secretary Christine Wormuth says | C
U.S. condemns ‘barbaric’ attack on innocents at Ukraine children’s hospital | R
Russian Airstrike Hits Maternity Hospital in Ukrainian City of Mariupol | W
Ukraine nuclear company warns of Chernobyl radiation risk | P
U.S. Doesn’t Support Giving Ukraine Polish Aircraft, Pentagon Says | W
Waves of Ukrainian Refugees Overwhelm Poland | W
‘We told you so!’ How the West didn’t listen to the countries that know Russia best | PO
Fortress Russia Crumbles by Anders Åslund | Project Syndicate
Russians Rush to Leave as Sanctions Bite and Putin Clamps Down on Dissent Over Ukraine War | W

US
Democrats Remove Coronavirus Funding From Omnibus Spending Package | W
Job Openings Near Record as Labor Market Emerges From Omicron Disruptions | W
U.S. labor market very tight, job openings near record high in January | R
Better Pay and Career Paths Drive U.S. Workers’ Decisions to Quit | W
Consumer inflation was likely high in February, before fuel hit | C
Will Inflation Stay High for Decades? One Influential Economist Says Yes | W

China
China’s resilient economic fundamentals provide solid foundation for markets- state media | R

Corporate finance
Amazon split could set it up for being included in the Dow Industrials | C

Cybersecurity & cryptocurrency
SEC Proposes Requiring Firms to Report Cyberattacks Within Four Days | W
Here’s what’s in Biden’s executive order on crypto | C

March 09 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Commodities Go Limit Up
Is China’s President Xi able to stop Putin’s War? With high stakes for both China’s economy and its reputation on the world stage, he has every reason to try. The Dragon must restrain the Bear. … The CRB raw industrials spot price index typically peaks and troughs in lockstep with business cycles. This time is different: The CRB’s vertical ascent reflects not booming global demand as usual but looming supply crunches. … And: Blocking Russian exports from global markets will mean painful supply constraints for the rest of the world, not only of oil and gas but also of metals and agricultural products.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 7.

Markets
Stocks Finish Lower as Oil Rises on Russian Oil Ban | W
Global shares fall, oil rises in volatile trading after Russia oil ban | R
Crude oil jumps as much as 7% on U.S. ban of Russian imports, but trades off session highs | C
Why Is Gas So Expensive? Ukraine-Russia War Sparks Price Increases Across U.S. | W
Nickel price surge could threaten automakers’ EV plans | C

Global
Hundreds of Ships Trapped by Ukraine War, Endangering Sailors and Global Trade | W

US
Higher Vehicle, Energy Imports Push January U.S. Trade Deficit to New Record | W
Will Your Rent Keep Skyrocketing? Not If This Billionaire Is Right | FO

Ukraine War I
Fighting in Ukraine Forces Two Million to Flee as Russia Presses Offensive | W
Biden Bans Imports of Russian Oil, Natural Gas | W
How the EU plans to cut dependence on Russian gas by 67% this year | C
Russian Oil Embargo Pushes OPEC to Take Sides | W

Ukraine War II
China’s Xi calls for ‘maximum restraint’ in Ukraine | R
U.S. Sanctions Can’t Keep China From Buying Russian Oil | OilPrice.com
Shell, BP to Withdraw From Russian Oil, Gas | W
Big brands and oil ban punish Russia as Moscow makes new pledge on Ukraine refugees | R
Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Pepsi and Starbucks suspend business in Russia | C
Sovereign wealth funds likely to shun Russia, researcher says | R

Geopolitics & trade
North Korea Restarts Work at Nuclear Testing Site, Report Says | W

Industries & companies
Financials: Visa, Mastercard Prepare to Raise Credit-Card Fees | W
Retail: Amazon turns grocery-picking gig workers into Whole Foods employees | C
Shipping: XPO Logistics will focus only on trucking, will spin off, sell other units | C

Corporate finance
Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat explains $5.4 billion Mandiant deal | C

Virus
Why American Mask Makers Are Going Out of Business | N

March 08 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Past & Future Earnings
Today, we examine the fundamental data that drive the stock market, as just reported for Q4 and as projected by industry analysts and by us for this year and next. S&P 500 companies’ Q4 results show record highs for revenues and earnings, but the profit margin continued to edge down from the Q2 peak. … Our stagflation economic forecast prompts us to raise our S&P 500 revenue, but not earnings, estimates. We expect relatively flat S&P 500 profit margins around 13% this year and next. … Also, we look at what declining forward P/Es have meant for the four major investment styles.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 7.

Markets
Dow Falls More Than 700 Points, Enters Correction Territory | W
U.S. Treasurys Regain Favor | W

Commodities
U.S. crude oil spikes to 13-year high of $130 overnight, then gives up most of that gain | C
EU to phase out Russian gas, oil, coal imports – leaders’ draft | R
What would a U.S. ban on Russian oil mean for the world? | R
Oil Industry Contemplates World Without Russian Crude | W
How Oil Giants’ Bets on Russia, Years in the Making, Crumbled in Days | W
Uniqlo owner stays put in Russia as Boeing suspends buying Russian titanium | R

Global
Global Economy Braces for Impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine | W

Central banks
The Fed’s ‘Average’ Is More ‘Flexible’ Than ‘Target’ | Fisher Investments

US
Will Inflation Fall? Any Pullback Depends on These Sectors | W
Federal debt is unpopular until you get elected | TheHill

Geopolitics & trade I
Russia Pummels Civilian Targets While Talks Make Scant Progress | W
Nearly all of Russia’s initial invasion forces in Ukraine: Pentagon | C
Russia-Ukraine war: U.S. collecting evidence of war crimes | C
More than 1.7 million Ukrainians have fled to Central Europe, UN says | R
Occupied Ukrainian Towns Want Russian Troops to ‘Go Home’ | W
Moscow says it will let Ukrainian civilians flee — to Russia | R
Russia will stop ‘in a moment’ if Ukraine meets terms – Kremlin | R

Geopolitics & trade II
Some New Steps the West Might Try in Ukraine | W
Blinken Says NATO Is Considering More Permanent Troops in Baltics | W
U.S. lawmakers pressure Biden to help with transfer of European aircraft to Ukraine | R
Chinese Tech Firms Weigh Opportunities in Russia After Western Pullout | W
Israel Says Iran Tried to Fly Arms to Hamas Using Drones | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline stocks slump as jet fuel surge overshadows travel rebound | C
Autos: Used-car prices are still sky-high — but they may be easing | C
Restaurants: Ukraine news: McDonald’s declines to comment on war, has exposure in Russia | C
Retail: Bed Bath & Beyond shares jump after GameStop chairman reveals big stake | C

Virus
Even mild Covid is linked to brain damage, scans show | C
U.S. far from normal with Covid deaths 10 times higher than flu, RSV: report | C

Beyond markets
Russian invasion sheds light on hypocrisy of Gary Gensler, corporate wokesters | P
A Guide To All The Outrageous Mansions And Estates Owned By Sanctioned Russian Billionaires | FO
While Properly Resisting Putin’s Villainy, Let’s Not Allow Governments To Take Property | FO

March 07 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World
With the whole world at the mercy of Mad Vlad, the pandemic now seems like a walk in the park. A nuclear power plant catastrophe has been narrowly averted, but Putin’s war has melted down Russia’s stock market and currency. … For the US economy, we now see stagflation, with persistently higher inflation and less economic growth than expected before the war. A recession can no longer be ruled out. … For stock investors, we think 2022 will continue to be one of this bull market’s toughest years. We’ve dropped our year-end 2022 and 2023 S&P 500 targets to 4000, a 16% decline, and 5000, a 25% rebound to a new record high.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 28.

Markets
How the Stock Market Reacts to War and Other Crises, According to History | BR
8 Experts Explain What the Ukraine War Means for Markets | BR
Investors Start Buying Ukraine, Russia Bonds | W

Commodities
U.S. crude oil tops $130 a barrel, a 13-year high on possible Western ban of Russian oil | C
National average for a gallon of gas tops $4, the highest price at the pump since 2008 | C
How High Can Oil Prices Go? What to Know | BR
Oil spikes to 2008 highs as U.S., Europe mull Russian oil import ban, Iran delay | R
U.S. Officials Meet With Regime in Venezuela, to Discuss Oil Exports to Replace Russia’s | W
Ukraine: Angry dock workers in the UK are refusing to unload Russian oil | C
This Russian Metals Giant Might Be Too Big to Sanction | W

Global
War fallout: U.S. economy to slow, Europe risks recession and Russia to suffer double-digit decline | C

Central banks
The Fed Risks Making a Policy Mistake. Here’s How to Avoid It. | BR
The ECB’s Inflation Problem Is More About Supply Than Demand | W
China’s Robust Growth Target Points to More Stimulus Ahead | W

US
Biden Caught Between Inflation and Calls to Ban Russian Oil | W
Stagflation Is Here. Is Recession Next? Real Wages Hold the Key. | BR
How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers | W

Europe
Southern Europe grapples with changing face of tourism | R

China
China Sets Economic Growth Target of Around 5.5% for the Year | W

Geopolitics & trade I
When Vladimir Putin escalates his war, the world must meet him | E
Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers | W
Fighting traps residents in Mariupol; Putin calls on Ukraine to surrender | R
How to help Ukraine as Vladimir Putin bombards its cities | E
U.S. Hunts for Options to Get Polish Combat Planes to Ukraine | W
Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations? | Royal United Services Institute
Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say | W

Geopolitics & trade II
The Russia-Ukraine Cyberwar Could Outlast the Shooting War | W
The west’s hybrid war on Russia | FT
For Israel, Ukraine Was A Test Case And The West Failed That Test. | American Thinker
Opinion: From Hungary in 1956 to Ukraine in 2022, Russia has tried to crush the people’s will – and failed | The Globe and Mail

Geopolitics & trade III
Western sanctions on Russia are like none the world has seen | E
Netflix, American Express and two top accounting firms sever ties with Russia | R
A new age of economic conflict | E
China Opposes Sanctions and Has a Reputation for Busting Them | W
Russian Banks Turn to China to Sidestep Cutoff From Payments Systems | W

Industries & companies
Media: ‘The Batman’ tallies $128.5 million domestic box office opening | C

Virus
CDC director makes startling admissions about pandemic response | wnd.com

March 05 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Sentiment, Retailers, China & Crypto
Bargain buying now for the long term may make sense, suggests the Bull-Bear Ratio and lessons from past geopolitical shocks. A caveat: This time may be different given coming interest-rate increases and the potential for disrupted energy markets. … Retailers’ recent earnings reports have been decidedly optimistic, but stock investors aren’t convinced. Why are they spooked when the C-suite folks are sanguine? … China’s President Xi may have a change of heart about former BFF Putin; we explain why we think so. … And: Cryptocurrencies’ new wartime uses.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 28.

Markets
Dow sheds 180 points, slides for 4th straight week as Ukraine war weighs on markets | C
S&P Dow Jones is removing Russia stocks from indexes, stripping country of emerging market status | C
Russia’s Ukraine conflict, big inflation report will keep the stock market volatile in coming week | C
Average national gasoline price surges to $3.83 a gallon, the highest since 2012 | C
War in Ukraine: White House Considering Ban on Russian Oil Imports to U.S. | B

US
February jobs rose a surprisingly strong 678,000, unemployment edged lower while wages were flat | C
The evolving post-COVID U.S. job market in five charts | R
Chicken Companies Were Asked About Sharing of Employment Practices | W
Biden Climate-Change Plans Gain Momentum as Democrats Retool Agenda | W
Half of Insured Americans Owe Medical Debt, Boosted by Covid | B

Geopolitics I
Russia seizes Europe’s biggest nuclear plant and blocks media websites | R
Russia Accused of Nuclear ‘Terrorism’ After Attack on Ukraine Power Plant | B
No Radiation Leaks Reported After Russians Take Ukrainian Nuclear Plant | W
UK, France say Iran nuclear deal is close, Russia points to next week | R
Ukraine Has Accused Russia of Using Thermobaric Weapons. Here’s What Makes Them So Devastating. | W
A Ukrainian City Prepares for Battle Far From the Front Line | W
Ukraine’s Special Forces Hold Off Russian Offensive on Kyiv’s Front Lines | W
Russia blocks Facebook, passes ‘fake news’ law; LVMH, Microsoft halt sales | R

Geopolitics II
How the West Unplugged Russia From the World’s Financial Systems | W
Why China’s Banks Won’t Come to Russia’s Rescue | W
Lindsey Graham Repeats Call for Russians to Assassinate Putin | W
The West’s Green Delusions Empowered Putin | Common Sense
Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse | The Atlantic
JPMorgan Warns Russia Faces 1998-Like Collapse in Economy | B
North Korea Fires Suspected Missile Days Before South’s Vote | B

Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Gets Approval to Start EV Production in Germany | W
Autos: Tesla’s long-delayed German gigafactory gets conditional green light | R

Tech
Is It the End of the Road for Computing Power? | W

Virus
New Jersey will end omicron public health emergency, NYC to lift indoor vaccine mandate | C

Beyond markets
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on everything from deflation to Elon Musk | FT

March 04 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Sentiment, Retailers, China & Crypto
Bargain buying now for the long term may make sense, suggests the Bull-Bear Ratio and lessons from past geopolitical shocks. A caveat: This time may be different given coming interest-rate increases and the potential for disrupted energy markets. … Retailers’ recent earnings reports have been decidedly optimistic, but stock investors aren’t convinced. Why are they spooked when the C-suite folks are sanguine? … China’s President Xi may have a change of heart about former BFF Putin; we explain why we think so. … And: Cryptocurrencies’ new wartime uses.

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 28.

Markets
Nasdaq drops 1.5%, Dow off nearly 100 points in choppy session as traders monitor Russia-Ukraine war | C
History Shows Ukraine War Will Be a Stock Price Blip | B
Here’s What Happens When Investors Ignore Corruption | Institutional Investor
Saudi crown prince plays the oil card in quest for U.S. recognition | R

Central banks
Fed’s Powell Says Ukraine War Creates Risks of Higher Inflation | W

US
Biden Administration Seeks $10 Billion for Ukraine Aid | W
Biden’s building bust: Inflation, foolish priorities will zap infrastructure investments | P
Economic Outlook: Labor Market to Drive GDP Growth | Morningstar
February jobs report expected to show strong labor market continuing with solid wage gains | C

China
In China, Fewer Are Willing to Splurge as Economic Worries Mount | W

Europe
Europe Can Survive Next Winter Without Russian Gas | OilPrice.com
Column: Europe prepares for high gas prices to last into 2023 | R
French President Emmanuel Macron Declares Run for Re-Election | W

Ukraine conflict
Ukraine and Russia agree on evacuation corridors as U.S. punishes oligarchs | R
Russian Forces Advance in Southern Ukraine as Cease-Fire Talks End | W
Putin Thought Ukraine Would Fall Quickly. An Airport Battle Proved Him Wrong. | W
Russia’s Assault on Ukraine’s Cities | W
China Declared Its Russia Friendship Had ‘No Limits.’ It’s Having Second Thoughts. | W
Russian billionaires lose over $80 billion in wealth | C
Russia-tied cable news station RT America closes amid Ukraine invasion | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline software giant ends distribution service for Russia’s Aeroflot | C
Autos: Ukraine War Plunges Auto Makers Into New Supply-Chain Crisis | W
Health Care: Companies Bet You’re Ready to Test at Home for More Than Covid-19 | W
Pharma: Covid: Pfizer, Moderna project $51 billion in combined vaccine sales this year | C
Retail: Ukraine news: Retailers warn of business impact from Russia’s invasion | C

Crypto
How Bitcoin and a Crypto Exchange Became Part of Ukraine’s War Effort | W

Virus
Should you keep wearing a mask on a plane? | Slate.com
NFL suspends all Covid protocols, cites ‘encouraging trends’ | C

Beyond markets
Brandon Sanderson Kickstarter tops $19 million in two days | C

March 03 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Sentiment, Retailers, China & Crypto
Bargain buying now for the long term may make sense, suggests the Bull-Bear Ratio and lessons from past geopolitical shocks. A caveat: This time may be different given coming interest-rate increases and the potential for disrupted energy markets. … Retailers’ recent earnings reports have been decidedly optimistic, but stock investors aren’t convinced. Why are they spooked when the C-suite folks are sanguine? … China’s President Xi may have a change of heart about former BFF Putin; we explain why we think so. … And: Cryptocurrencies’ new wartime uses.

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 28.

Markets
Dow Rises as Investors Watch Ukraine, Interest Rates | W
Oil Tops $110 as Russia’s War on Ukraine Shakes Global Crude Trade | W

Central banks
Powell Says Fed Is on Track to Raise Rates in Two Weeks | W
Fed Chair Powell notes ‘highly uncertain’ Ukraine impact, but says rate hikes are still coming | C
Fed’s Powell Plows Ahead Toward Rate Hikes With Eyes on War Impact | B

US
U.S. Economy Grew Modestly Amid Omicron Surge, Fed Beige Book Says | W

Europe
Eurozone Inflation Climbs to Fresh High as Russian Invasion Confronts ECB With Dilemma | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia Batters Ukraine’s No. 2 City Kharkiv, as Kyiv Offensive Stalls | W
Five Reasons Why Russian Forces Are Struggling in Ukraine | Defense One
As Russian Invasion of Ukraine Widens, the West’s Options Shrink | W
Blinken slams Putin’s provocative rhetoric on nuclear weapons | C
Putin loses key ally in the European Union as Hungary’s Orban turns | C
Biden administration launches new ‘KleptoCapture’ task force to go after Russian oligarchs | C
For Average Russians, Western Sanctions Over Ukraine War Begin to Bite | W
U.S. Moving to Confront China on Trade, Industrial Policy | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Ford Creates Separate EV, Gas-Engine Divisions in Major Overhaul | W
Consumer discretionary: Amazon closing 68 stores, ending Amazon Books, 4-star, Pop Up shops | C
Media: ‘The Batman’ reviews: What critics thought of the new Dark Knight film | C

March 02 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Case for a Ceasefire
The Cold War is back on. What’s next in the hot war between Russia and Ukraine? Major considerations include whether Russia gains the upper hand militarily, the fact that it is losing much economically, and whether negotiations will provide an exit for both sides. … Longer term, Russia’s future is bleak if demography is indeed destiny. … And: What’s with all the slicing and dicing of apples and oranges that Fed banks do to understand inflation? We’d toss out most of the concoctions.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 28.

Markets
Oil surges above $100 a barrel, stocks slide on Ukraine conflict | R

Global
War in Ukraine Disrupts Ships Around the Globe | W

Central banks
Traders fret about a growth slowdown as Fed Chair Powell faces a dilemma on rates | C

Energy
Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline Lays Off All Employees | W
Gas prices: What if Moscow halts energy exports to Europe? | NN
There’s No Way Vladimir Putin Could Freeze Europe, and No Way the U.S. Could Freeze Putin | FO
A Lesson in Energy Masochism | W

Ukraine conflict I
Russia Targets Ukrainian Civilian Areas in Shift to Demoralize Resistance | W
U.S. Rushes Arms to Ukraine as Russian Forces Escalate Attacks | W
The Putin Endgame | W
How Vladimir Putin Miscalculated the Economic Cost of Invading Ukraine | The New Yorker
A New Nuclear Debate in Japan | W

Ukraine conflict II
U.S. to ban Russian flights from American airspace, officials say | C
EXCLUSIVE U.S. utilities push White House not to sanction Russian uranium | R
Apple Says It Has Stopped All Product Sales in Russia | W
Food Shortages, Last Goodbyes: Ukrainians Face Their New Reality | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Car Dealerships Don’t Want Your Cash—They Want to Give You a Loan | W
Autos: Toyota Shutdown Over Cyberattack at a Supplier Reflects Cautious Culture | W
Consumer discretionary: Amazon Opens a Whole Foods With the Next Step in Automation | N
Retail: How Target plans to keep growing sales | C
Retail: Nordstrom (JWN) reports Q4 2021 earnings beat | C

Cryptocurrency & cybersecurity
Bitcoin Demand Booms in Ukraine and Russia | W
How is Anonymous attacking Russia? Disabling and hacking websites | C

Virus
New CDC face mask guidelines send important message | TheHill
 
Beyond markets
Opinion | Larry Summers Shares the Blame for Inflation | N

March 01 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Inflation in the Second Cold War
The end of the Cold War in the late 1980s was very disinflationary—perpetuating freer trade, greater global prosperity, and lower inflation. Will February 24, 2022 mark the start of Cold War 2.0 and with it the Great Inflation 2.0? To answer that, we look at the history of inflation from a geopolitical perspective before we examine four powerful constraints on inflation, the “4Ds”—some of which have been weakening. … Also: a look at what’s been keeping frackers from fracking more oil.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 28.

Markets
Stocks Fall, Oil Leaps as Ukraine Crisis Deepens | W
Bond Market Shakes Off Hefty Swings in Sentiment | W

US
In speech, Biden to shift from Build Back Better bill to 4-point economic rescue plan | R
How Lopsided New District Lines Deepen the U.S. Partisan Divide | NYT
U.S. Positioned to Withstand Economic Shock From Ukraine Crisis | W
Inflation Raises Expenses for Pension Funds | W
A Little-Noticed Reason Workers Quit: Too Little Work | W

Ukraine conflict I
Ukraine calls for no-fly zone to stop Russian bombardment | R
Ukraine, Russia Fail to Agree on Cease-Fire, as Moscow Shelling Kills Civilians | W
Ukraine ‘not ready to surrender or capitulate’: Ukraine foreign minister | C
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Why the Russians Are Struggling | National Review
A pandemic spent in isolation may have driven Putin mad | P
U.S. Looks to Make China Pay for Close Ties to Russia in Ukraine Crisis | W

Ukraine conflict II
Russia Sanctions: What Are the Latest Measures Imposed by the U.S., U.K. and EU? | B
Central Bank Sanctions Breach Fortress Russia, Halt Intervention | B
Shell to Exit Joint Ventures With Gazprom, Citing Russia Invasion of Ukraine | W
BP’s Sudden Russia Exit Exposes Risks for Western Companies in Ukraine Crisis | W
Russian oligarchs move yachts as U.S. looks to ‘hunt down’ and freeze assets | C
Russia Hits Back on Sanctions, Bars EU Carriers From Skies | B

Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla shares rally on expectations German factory will open in March | C

Virus
Pfizer vaccine was just 12% effective for kids in omicron surge: study | C
California, Oregon and Washington to end school mask mandates after March 11 | R