Dr. Ed's Blog

March 23 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: War & Peace
Horrific as it is, Russia’s war in Ukraine hasn’t stopped the US stock market from advancing; investors know that geopolitical crises can present buying opportunities. The war has had significant impacts on commodity prices, inflation expectations, and certain stock market sectors. … The Energy and Materials sectors are benefiting from analysts’ higher revenues and earnings sights, and so are companies generally. Faster inflation is boosting revenues expectations to record highs, and the fact that earnings are following suit suggests most companies are able to pass their higher costs on to customers. … Also: For auto makers and their suppliers, the war is escalating already extreme supply-chain challenges and upending the global playing field in multiple ways.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 21.

Markets
Stocks bounce as investors raise rate hike expectations after Powell’s comments | C
There’s Only One Stock-Market Sector in the Green This Year | W
Gas Prices Shoot Up at Fastest Rate on Record | W

Central banks
The Fed is targeting a soft landing. Getting it wrong means recession | NN
Traders bet on an aggressive Fed and predict half-point rate hikes in May, June | C

US
Flattening Yield Curve Stirs Recession Debate | W
While the war in Ukraine rages, America’s domestic challenges continue to pile up | The Hill
Mortgage rates are surging faster than expected, prompting economists to lower their home sales forecasts | C
Student-Loan Freeze Saves Borrowers Nearly $200 Billion as Biden Considers Extension | W

Russia-Ukraine
Ukraine’s Air Defense Becomes Its Surprising Trump Card Against Russia | W
U.S. Sending Soviet Air Defense Systems It Secretly Acquired to Ukraine | W
U.S. Rethinks Uranium Supply for Nuclear Plants After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | W
U.S., Europe to announce new sanctions on Russia when Biden visits Brussels | R
Flood of Refugees From Ukraine War Tests Europe’s Capacity to Welcome Them | W
Ukraine’s Engineers Battle To Keep The Internet Running While Russian Bombs Fall Around Them | FO
Lip Gloss, Potato Chips, Air Fresheners Are Among the ‘Essentials’ Still Sold in Russia | W

Geopolitics & trade
As inflation goes up, tariffs should go down | Washington Examiner

Industries & companies
Autos: Elon Musk breaks out the dance moves as he opens new Tesla factory in Germany | C
Restaurants: Seattle Starbucks location unanimously votes in favor of unionizing, a first in the company’s hometown | C

Corporate finance
Alibaba to Buy Back Up to $25 Billion of Stock | W

Crypto
How Biden’s executive order on cryptocurrency may impact the fate of digital currency and assets | Brookings
The NFL will now let teams seek limited blockchain sponsorships, but cryptocurrency promotion remains banned | C

Climate & virus
New Rules Put Net Zero Pledges Under Scrutiny | W
Midtown Manhattan With Fewer Office Workers: Imagining the Unthinkable | W
Biden Administration to Stop Reimbursing Hospitals for Covid-19 Care for Uninsured | W

March 22 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: More Inflationary Developments
No matter how Putin’s War is resolved, the global world order will continue to face new challenges by the autocrats governing China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. These Axis of Evil countries won’t stop trying to upend the post-WWII order established and implemented by the US. We look at the ramifications of that reality for globalization, inflation, and the investment outlook. … Also: New kinks in the supply chain mean that supply disruptions won’t be abating anytime soon, which will only increase inflationary pressures. … And: Powell’s speech yesterday confirmed his new, more hawkish stance. But an important yield-curve spread may be on the verge of inverting.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 21.

Markets
Stocks End Lower After Powell Interest-Rate Comments | W
Wall Street worries again over Ukraine, inflation | R
S&P Global to withdraw all outstanding ratings on Russian entities | R
China Evergrande Halts Trading in Its Stocks | W

Commodities
Cash Crunch Drives Wild Moves in Commodities | W
Shale Companies Drilling More, but Oil Output Growing Little | W
Oil, food industry executives invited to White House -sources | R
Oil is likely to remain volatile and expensive as world deals with supply shortages | C
Bonds Suffer One of Worst Days in a Decade as Fed Spurs Rethink | B

Global
Governments Cause Inflation, Not Banks Making Loans | FO

Central banks
Central Banks Grapple With Dual Threat of Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation | W
Fed will raise rates more aggressively if needed, Powell says | R
Powell Says Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Interest-Rate Increases to Reduce Inflation | W
Fed’s Jerome Powell Says Look at Short-Term Yield Curve for Recession Risk | B

US
How to Fight Inflation in Wartime | N
Older Americans, Flush With Housing and Stock Portfolio Wealth, Poised to Revive Spending This Year | W

Europe
EU Support Grows for Russia Oil Ban Over Ukraine War | W

China
China Stockpiles Record Cash In a Sign of Slow Fiscal Stimulus | B
China’s Big Tech Firms Are Axing Thousands of Workers | W
 
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford F-150 Lightning’s 320-mile range beats available Rivian electric pickups, but lags GMC | C
Energy: 41 Inconvenient Truths on the “New Energy Economy” | ampproject.org
Tech: What is web3? It’s Silicon Valley’s latest identity crisis | NBC

Geopolitics & trade
Russia says Biden’s ‘war criminal’ claim has put relations ‘on the verge of rupture’ | C
Ukraine Is Winning | The Atlantic
Ukraine rejects ultimatums as conflict intensifies | R
Vladimir Putin latest: Russian troops cut off as Belarusians sabotage railway supply lines
Russia Relies Increasingly on Missiles, Artillery to Pressure Ukraine | W
Ukraine War Complicates Biden Administration’s Military Strategy on China and Russia | W

Cybersecurity
Russia is exploring options for cyberattacks, and companies must be ready, says Biden | C
 
Corporate finance
Berkshire Hathaway to Buy Insurer Alleghany for $11.6 Billion | W

Virus
As Offices Ease Covid Safety Measures, Workers Worry | N

March 21 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: A Very Brief History of The Rise & Fall of Modern Monetary Theory
Now that the Fed is tightening, US monetary policy is no longer bullish for stocks; the “Fed Put” is dead. Replacing it: the “CFO Put,” i.e., the market-buoying activities of corporate CFOs. But the tug-of-war between bearish and bullish forces may not be won decisively by either side in coming months; we see a volatile sideways-trading S&P 500. … Yield-curve inversion fears are misplaced. Inversion doesn’t cause a financial crisis/credit crunch/recession scenario but predicts one. And more convincing predictors are flashing no-recession signals—including the Fed’s lack of inflation-fighting gusto. … Also: Policymakers implemented Modern Monetary Theory during the pandemic, revealing the folly of the theory.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 14.

Markets
Global equities rise, gold falls after Russia avoids default | R
A nickel-trading fiasco raises three big questions | E
Uranium Prices Spike as War Shifts Thinking on Nuclear Power | BR
Gas Prices Upend Small Business—‘It’s Keeping Me Awake’ | W
China’s Pledge to Support Its Market Is a First Step. Here’s What’s Needed for a Durable Recovery. | BR
Yen kicks off another week under pressure, with central bank policy in focus | R

Supply chains
Manufacturers With Ties to Russia Struggle to Unwind | W
War in Ukraine Is Already Taking Its Toll on Global Food Supplies | W

Central banks
Fed’s Benign GDP, Inflation Predictions Ignore Risk of a Recession | BR

US
Food Prices Keep Going Up. The Impact May Be Felt Far Beyond the Supermarket. | BR
Deere, Hershey and More Stocks to Buy to Combat Food Inflation | BR
Rent.com Rent Report: March 2022 | Rent.com

China
China Says Housing Prices Are Stable, but Developers See Significant Declines | W

Europe
Europe’s Real Estate Could Offer a Buying Opportunity. These Two Stocks Have an Edge. | BR

Geopolitics & trade I
Ukraine refuses to surrender Mariupol as Russia warns of humanitarian ‘catastrophe’ | R
Russia’s Assault on Ukraine Uproots 10 Million People | W
Russia, Failing to Achieve Early Victory in Ukraine, Is Seen Shifting to ‘Plan B’ | W
Pentagon’s Work With Ukraine’s Biological Facilities Becomes Flashpoint in Russia’s Information War | W
Ukraine’s World-Class Drug-Molecule Industry Imperiled by Russia Invasion | W

Geopolitics & trade II
The friendship between China and Russia has boundaries | E
The war in Ukraine will determine how China sees the world | E
Confronting Russia shows the tension between free trade and freedom | E
Explainer: How Russia could use bankruptcy law to punish foreign companies | R
Elon Musk’s internet system is allowing Ukrainian drones to pound Putin’s helpless tanks | ampproject.org

Technology
Big food automation is making its way to Main Street’s menu | C

Virus
Health experts predict uptick in U.S. Covid cases due to new BA.2 variant | C

Beyond markets
Elon Musk’s Business Ties to China Create Unease in Washington | W

March 19 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Peace, Defense & the Metaverse
Hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine have buoyed the stock market; but what comes after a ceasefire? Geopolitically, we expect a new world order to emerge. For the S&P 500, we see valuations pressured by higher-for-longer inflation and the Fed’s lame response. But for now, Panic Attack #74 is probably over… The Fed’s baby-step tightening move yesterday shows it’s in no hurry to corral inflation. … Also: Jackie examines the rising defense-spending plans domestically and abroad, the companies that would benefit, and the implications for the S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense index. … And: South Korea invades the metaverse.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 14.

Markets
Dow rallies more than 270 points Friday as stocks post their best week since 2020 | C
Russia seems to have averted its historic bond default — for now | C
How Chinese Shares Went Haywire: ‘The Market Is Completely Unstable’ | W
How the Ukraine Crisis Led to … Nickel Hoarding | The Atlantic

Central banks
Fed Governor Waller says half-point rate hikes could be needed as ‘inflation is raging’ | C
Larry Summers: The Fed Must Do Much More to Fight Inflation | Time

US
The main driver of inflation isn’t what you think it is | PO
Home Sales Fell in February Amid Tight Supply, Rising Mortgage Rates | W
When Your Second Home Is the First One You Buy | N
Most Medical Debts to Be Removed From Consumers’ Credit Reports | W

Industries & companies
Autos: EV mechanic Carl Medlock found a niche fixing Teslas | C

Geopolitics & trade I
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy calls for meaningful talks with Russia | R
Russia backs down on demands in Iran nuclear deal talks, making revival of 2015 pact imminent | C
Ernest Moniz on Vladimir Putin’s reckless nuclear threats | E
The Month Companies United Against Russia’s War | W
How the U.S. and EU Cut Russia Off From the Global Economy | W
Chip Sanctions Challenge Russia’s Tech Ambitions | W

Geopolitics & trade II
How the West Can Win a Global Power Struggle | W
Russia, China and the New Cold War | W
Biden warns Xi of global backlash if China helps Russia’s attack on Ukraine | C
Xi says improper handling of Taiwan issues will hit China-U.S. ties | R

Corporate finance
GM to buy SoftBank’s stake in Cruise self-driving unit for $2.1 billion | C

Technology
The Metaverse and NFT Boom Is About to Go Bust | OneZero
Metaverse heats up as ProShares launches the latest ETF | Seeking Alpha

Climate
Four climate investors explain the new boom at CERAWeek panel | C

March 18 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Peace, Defense & the Metaverse
Hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine have buoyed the stock market; but what comes after a ceasefire? Geopolitically, we expect a new world order to emerge. For the S&P 500, we see valuations pressured by higher-for-longer inflation and the Fed’s lame response. But for now, Panic Attack #74 is probably over… The Fed’s baby-step tightening move yesterday shows it’s in no hurry to corral inflation. … Also: Jackie examines the rising defense-spending plans domestically and abroad, the companies that would benefit, and the implications for the S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense index. … And: South Korea invades the metaverse.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 14.

Markets
Wall Street stocks, oil prices rise after aggressive Fed hike outlook | R
S&P 500 Extends Rally, Up Nearly 5% for the Week | W
S&P cuts Russia’s ratings to ‘CC’ on debt default risk | R
Oil Market’s Big Winners: ‘Little Guys’ Who Are Eager to Drill | W
Hedge funds are doubling down on commodities bets with some notching big gains | C

Central banks
Senate Panel Approves Jerome Powell’s Renomination as Fed Chairman | W
Fed Rate Hikes Double Crypto Firm Circle’s Valuation | W
Deutsche Bank’s U.S. affiliate, following the Fed, raises prime lending rate | R
Mortgage Rates Rise Above 4% for the First Time Since 2019 | W

US
Jobless Claims Edge Lower in Tight U.S. Labor Market | W

Ukraine-Russia
Opinion | Russia’s War in Ukraine: This Is How World War III Begins | N
Ukraine War: Desperate Putin Could Be Terrifying for Biden and U.S. | B
Desperation Mounts for Ukrainians in Mariupol as Russia Tries to Capture Key City | W
Russia Doesn’t Train Troops for Urban Warfare. It’s About to Learn the Consequences in Ukraine. | military.com
Ukraine Switchblade Drones: US Sends Weapons for Use Against Russia | B
Why Russian people need tech companies to stay | C
Broke Russian Oligarch Fridman Says Sanctioned Billionaires Can’t Sway Putin | B

Geopolitics & trade
Is China Russia’s Ally? Beijing Promises to ‘Never Attack’ Ukraine Friend | B
How the Russia-Ukraine war could hit China’s trade | C
Xi and Biden Prepare to Talk as U.S.-China Distrust Mounts | W

Industries & companies
Transportation: Amazon Flex drivers hit by surging gas prices are demanding relief | C

Cybersecurity
Japan’s Bridgestone reports ransomware attack at U.S. subsidiary | R

Corporate finance
Warren Introduces Bill to Bar Mergers Worth $5 Billion Or More | B

Virus
Chinese President Vows to Control Covid Outbreak With Smallest Cost | W
How South Korea Is Beating Covid Despite 600,000 New Cases a Day | B

March 17 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Peace, Defense & the Metaverse
Hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine have buoyed the stock market; but what comes after a ceasefire? Geopolitically, we expect a new world order to emerge. For the S&P 500, we see valuations pressured by higher-for-longer inflation and the Fed’s lame response. But for now, Panic Attack #74 is probably over… The Fed’s baby-step tightening move yesterday shows it’s in no hurry to corral inflation. … Also: Jackie examines the rising defense-spending plans domestically and abroad, the companies that would benefit, and the implications for the S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense index. … And: South Korea invades the metaverse.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 14.

Markets
Stocks Close Sharply Higher as Fed Raises Interest Rates | W
U.S. bonds: 10-year Treasury yield pares gains after hitting highest level since 2019 following Fed rate hike | C

Central banks
Federal Reserve approves first interest rate hike in more than three years, sees six more ahead | C
Fed hikes interest rates, signals aggressive fight to curb inflation | R
Here’s what the Fed’s rate hike means for borrowers, savers | C

US
U.S. Retail Sales Grew 0.3% in February | W
Yes, Mr. President: The government can cause inflation | P

Japan
Nearly 70% of Japan’s companies see hit to earnings from Ukraine crisis | R

Ukraine-Russia
Ukraine Mounts Counteroffensive to Drive Russians Back From Kyiv, Key Cities | W
Ukraine says Russia strikes Mariupol theatre sheltering residents, Moscow denies attack | R
Nearly 1 Million Child Refugees Have Fled Ukraine for Poland Since War Began | W
Biden calls Putin a war criminal as Russia says mission ‘going to plan’ | R
Putin Acknowledges Impact of Sanctions on Russian Economy | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Russian-Ukraine war to lower car production by millions of units | C
Media: Netflix adds Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s show ‘Servant of the People’ | C
Restaurants: Starbucks C.E.O. Retires, and Howard Schultz Steps In as Interim | N

Beyond markets
Opinion | How Life as a Trucker Devolved Into a Dystopian Nightmare | N

March 16 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Wage-Price-Rent Spiral
Company fundamentals have been scaling dazzling new heights since mid-2021, yet stock market valuations have toppled ignominiously from their 2021 peaks last spring. That disconnect reflects a tug of war between the opposing effects of high inflation and excess M2 liquidity on valuation multiples. … We have two big concerns about higher-for-longer inflation: Rent inflation is getting uglier, and the wage-price spiral is spiraling faster. In fact, we now see potential for a wage-price-rent spiral. … And: Melissa examines why rents have gone through the roof.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 14.

Markets
Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Slide Below $100 | W
Bond Markets Forecast Long Financial Freeze for Russia | W
China Covid-19 Lockdowns Rattle Oil Markets, Add to Uncertainty | W
Nickel Traders Are Bracing for Wild Ride as Market Reopens | B

Central banks
Fed Wrestles With the Challenge of How Quickly to Raise Interest Rates | W
Sarah Bloom Raskin Withdraws as Biden’s Pick for Top Fed Banking Regulator | W

Global
What Russia’s looming debt default means for global economy | P

US
High gas prices didn’t doom Obama in 2008 and they might not sink Biden in 2022 | Vox
Get ready: Here comes the Biden recession | TheHill
As Stagflation Fear Grows, Food and Gas Prices Are the New Rent | B
Single-family rent sets record, led by homes in Florida and Arizona | C

Ukraine-Russia
Russia Bombards Kyiv as European Leaders Arrive in Ukraine’s Capital | W
Ukraine Invasion: Russia’s Military Is Adapting After Early Failures | B
Russia sanctions threaten to backfire on the buck (asiatimes.com)
What If Russia Defaults On Its Debt? Ukraine War Sanctions Risk $150 Billion | B
How Long Can Russia Withstand the Sanctions? | CFA Institute Enterprising Investor
Russia Softens Iran Demands, Re-Opening Way for Nuclear Deal | W
Putin’s Worsening Problems | New Lines Magazine
Inside Chernobyl, 200 Exhausted Staff Toil Round the Clock at Russian Gunpoint | W

Corporate finance
Intel Plans $36 Billion in European Chip Plant Investments | W

Beyond markets
Bowery’s vertical farming strawberries go on sale in New York | C
Year-Round Daylight-Saving-Time Bill Passes the Senate | W
Pfizer Asks FDA to Authorize Second Covid-19 Booster Dose | W

March 15 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Wage-Price Spiral Spiraling
Today we examine Putin’s War from several angles: The ceasefire demands that Russia has put to Ukraine, the requests for assistance that Russia has put to China, and reasons for surging US gas prices. … We also examine runaway inflation from several angles: What the Fed could do about it, what it will likely do instead, and why the wage-price spiral won’t be stopping anytime soon.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 14.

Markets
Stocks Wobble, Oil Falls as Investors Track Ukraine Negotiations | W
Investors Dash to Haven Assets During Ukraine Crisis Market Turmoil | W
Treasury Yields Rebound to New Multiyear Highs | W
Fund Managers Stay Away From China Stocks Even With 75% Discount | B
Chinese Stocks Slide as Covid-19 Lockdowns Add to Investor Concerns | W
China’s Wealthiest Lose $52 Billion in a Day on Stocks Plunge | B

Central banks
Euro zone to tighten fiscal policy in 2023, but ready to reverse amid Ukraine war | R
NY Fed: Public’s Near-Term Inflation Expectations Again Hit Record in February | W
Joe Manchin opposes Sarah Bloom Raskin Federal Reserve nomination | C

Commodities & climate
Column: Ukraine crisis rocks the London Metal Exchange | R
Inside Nickel’s Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading | B
Why Is Xiang Guangda Shorting Nickel? | B
Column: Funds dump CBOT wheat shorts on epic rally; end users snap up corn | R
U.S. oil tumbles more than 8%, dips below $100 per barrel | C
EXCLUSIVE Chevron set to trade Venezuelan oil if U.S. relaxes sanctions -sources | R
Gravity could solve renewable energy’s biggest problem | NN
BlocPower gets big infusion from Microsoft to convert old buildings to green energy | C

Ukraine-Russia
Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks as Moscow’s Bombing Campaign Grinds On | W
Russian Forces Kill Civilians, Loot for Supplies in Occupied Ukraine, Residents Say | W
The Man Who Sold Ukraine, by Mike Whitney
China’s Reluctance to Distance Itself From Russia Limits Its Role on Ukraine | W
Putin’s Ukraine invasion will spur 30-year economic setback: experts | C

Supply-chains
One big problem hindering supply chains and chip manufacturing — and how to fix it | Washington Examiner
Tesla has bought aluminum from Russian supplier Rusal since 2020 | C

Geopolitics & trade
Why Kim Jong Un Wants the World to See New ICBM Tests as Satellite Technology | W

US
The Inflation Hits Just Keep Coming, Raising Stakes for the Fed | W
Rent Prices are Up in Every State Except for These Two | apartmentguide.com
New Yorkers confirm high taxes are pushing them to flee the state in droves | P
Expect Your Spring Road Trip to Cost More This Year | W
Other retirees could take Tom Brady’s cue and return to the workforce | C

Europe
Conservative EU countries facing pressure to turn woke | P
 
Industries & companies
Pharma: Vaccine maker stocks rise as China battles worst Covid outbreak since 2020 | C
Tech: Apple Supplier Foxconn in Talks to Build $9 Billion Factory in Saudi Arabia | W

Cybersecurity
Bitcoin’s Value Drops Amid Russia-Ukraine War and Inflation | N

Virus
China’s Covid-19 Surge Shuts Down Plants in Manufacturing Hubs Shenzhen and Changchun | W
Factbox: Latest on the worldwide spread of the coronavirus | R

March 14 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Inflation, Liquidity & Valuation
The big question before stock investors now is: With inflation likely to remain troublesome, are valuations still too high or will ample M2 liquidity keep them elevated? We examine a handful of indicators that shed light on the relationship between inflation and valuation. … Will chronic labor shortages fuel a wage-price spiral over the rest of the decade, as predicted by Charles Goodhart? Our money remains on businesses deploying productivity-enhancing technology to get around their labor-supply challenges. … And: Putin’s War should mean more gradual interest-rate increases ahead, for now. …Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Vikings: Valhalla” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 7.

Markets
War and sanctions have caused commodities chaos | E
Russia-Ukraine War Threatens Wheat Supply, Jolts Prices | W
Oil prices fall, continuing downward trend from last week | R
Hedge Funds’ Commodity Bets Soar After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | W
What the U.S. Can Do to Combat Rising Energy Prices. Just Turning on the Taps Is Not an Option. | BR
It’s the Beginning of the End for Russian Gas in Europe. These Stocks Should Benefit. | BR

Central banks
Don’t Expect an Investor Bailout From the Fed if Stagflation Returns | BR

US
Rent-Control Measures Are Back as Home Rents Reach New Highs | W
California’s efforts to house more people have fallen short | E

Europe
Euro zone to back broadly neutral, but flexible 2023 fiscal stance amid Ukraine war | R

Supply-chains
Ukraine halts half of world’s neon output for chips, clouding outlook | NN
Chip Makers Stockpiled Key Materials Ahead of Russian Invasion of Ukraine | W
Supply-Chain Problems? Not for Tesla, Apple, and IKEA. | BR

Ukraine-Russia I
Will China offer Russia financial help? | E
China faces consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions, U.S. says | R
U.S. Won’t Negotiate Ukraine-Related Sanctions With Russia to Save Iran Nuclear Deal | W
U.S. Moves to Deny Russia ‘Most Favored’ Trade Status | W

Ukraine-Russia II
Russian strike on base brings Ukraine war close to NATO’s border | R
Putin’s pre-invasion moves against Google and Apple laid tech groundwork for crackdown | WP
Russian soldiers expecting to be welcomed to Ukraine were soon disabused | E
Millions Are Fleeing Ukraine, Some Are Going Back | W
Reexamining Putin’s Military Interventions in the Middle East | The New Yorker
The West’s Economic War Plan Against Russia | W

Ukraine-Russia III
Vladimir Putin is pushing Russia into the past | E
The Stalinisation of Russia | E
A Scholar of Stalin Discusses Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and the West | The New Yorker
The World That Putin Has Made | W
Putin’s War Will Change the World. Here’s How. | BR
Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite | FT

Geopolitics & trade
Ballistic missiles hit Iraq’s Kurdish capital, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claim responsibility | C

Industries & companies
Autos: As Gas Prices Soar, Buyers Find Fewer Fuel-Efficient Car Options | W
Communication services: Forget 5G. Let’s Talk About 6G. | W
Defense: Military Spending Surges in Europe. These Stocks Stand to Benefit. | BR

Virus
Lockdowns Spread in China as Covid Cases Surge in Shanghai and Other Areas | ampproject.org
 
Beyond markets
Facts to Know About BlackRock, the World’s Largest Asset Manager | ampproject.org

March 12 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Stagflation, Russian Oil & Gas, And Carbon Credits
Stagflation—higher inflation with slower economic growth—may be upon us, suggests the NFIB’s February survey of small business owners. Most are struggling to fill open positions, which is perpetuating a wage-price spiral. Earlier this week, we raised our inflation outlook and dropped our GDP forecast—resulting in lower expectations for the stock market this year. … And: How will the US and Europe meet their energy needs with less reliance on Russian oil and gas imports? Jackie looks at this question from multiple angles. … Also: How is the EU carbon credit market weathering its first war? Spoiler alert: Not well.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 7.

Markets
Stocks Turn Lower to Finish the Week | W
Dow falls 200 points, notches its fifth straight week of losses as Russia-Ukraine war drags on | C
Column: Markets wary of ‘butterfly effect’ if Russia defaults | R
Dollar hits five-year high vs yen, euro sags amid Ukraine uncertainty | R
Column: Global diesel shortage raises risk of oil price spike | R

Central banks
Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates in week ahead | C
Column: Pity poor ECB – bluff, error or remix? | R

Energy
This Isn’t Obama’s Iran Deal. It’s Much, Much Worse. | Tablet Magazine
Yellen says gas tax cut among options to ease higher costs at the pump | R

US
Senate Passes $1.5 Trillion Spending Bill That Includes Aid for Ukraine | W
Congress prevents government shutdown, approves Ukraine aid | C
Biden Administration Pushes for Higher Construction-Worker Pay | W

Ukraine war I
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy defiant as Russian forces, despite setbacks, regroup near Kyiv | R
In the Rubble of Kharkiv, Survivors Make Their Stand: ‘It’s a War, and It’s a Dirty War’ | W

Ukraine war II
U.S. Moves to Deny Russia ‘Most Favored’ Trade Status | W
China Has Tools to Help Russia’s Economy. None Are Big Enough to Save It. | N
Pressure Mounts for Western Companies Leaving Russia | W
Ukraine Invasion Dashes U.S. Banks’ Russia Hopes | W

Beyond markets
India says it accidentally fired missile into Pakistan | R

Virus
China Battles Nationwide Surge in Covid-19 Cases | W
Pfizer planning to submit data on 4th Covid shot soon, while working on vaccine for all variants | C