Dr. Ed's Blog

April 18 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Inflation, Semis, Banks & Grocery Shopping
We’ve been on the lookout for signs of peak inflation, and we are deflated to report none to be seen in the latest PPI and small business survey releases. Instead, they telegraphed higher-for-longer inflation in a weakening stagflationary environment. … Semiconductor-related stocks have been beaten down ytd, but analysts expect double-digit earnings growth this year and next, aided by some fast-growing end markets. … Also: Expect smaller domestically focused banks to report stronger Q1 results than their big multinational counterparts. … And: Grocery shopping with no waiting in checkout lines or schlepping bags to the car? Yep: The supermarket industry is going high tech.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 11.

Markets
Bond Rout Promises More Pain for Investors | W
Bearish Yen JPY USD Bets Mount as Slumps Against Dollar for 12th Straight Day | B
Oil Is Going to Stay Above $100. There’s No Quick Fix. | BR
Sustainable Investing Failed Its First Big Test. A Reckoning Is Coming. | BR
 
Central banks
Biden to nominate former Treasury official Barr for Fed top regulatory job | R

Global
Recession Risks Duel Resilience Hopes in Global Economy Outlook | B
 
US
Goldman Sachs Sees U.S. Recession Odds at 35% in Next Two Years | B
Decade-High Mortgage Rates Pose Threat to Spring Housing Market | W
Several Million U.S. Workers Seen Staying Out of Labor Force Indefinitely | W
When Quitting Normalizes, Benefit to Low-Wage Workers May Subside | W
Odds of Getting Laid Off Are at Historic Lows in Tightest Labor Market in 50 Years | W
Some Care Workers Are Seeing a Bump in Pay. They’re Working to Make It Last. | N
New York City Companies Prepare to Put Pay Ranges on Job Listings | W
 
China
What China gets wrong | E
The way Chinese think about covid-19 is changing | E
Shanghai by the numbers: China’s Covid lockdowns | C
Inside a Shanghai Mass Quarantine Center: No Showers, Lights On 24/7 | W

Geopolitics & trade I
Ukrainian Forces in Mariupol Rebuff Russian Ultimatum to Surrender | W
What will it cost to rebuild Ukraine? | E
What is at stake in Ukraine | E

Geopolitics & trade II
The Russian Defense Industry: A Distressed Brand
Atrocities in Ukraine War Have Deep Roots in Russian Military | N
Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
WTO | 2022 News items – WTO Secretariat note examines impact of conflict in Ukraine on global trade and development
What Will Happen if Russia Defaults on Its Debt? | N

Geopolitics & trade III
China goes on the offensive over human rights | E
North Korean leader Kim observes missile test to boost nuclear capabilities | C
Taiwan says China’s threats will only increase support for island | C
 
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines’ new CEO Robert Isom vows reliability as peak travel season kicks off | C
Autos: Car Prices Expected to Remain Elevated in 2022, Prolonging Buyer Pain | W
Energy: Biden administration to resume leasing for oil and gas drilling on federal lands | C
Financials: Big Banks’ Earnings Show a Clampdown on IPOs, M&A | BR

Climate
Weather Makers: How Industrial Wind Turbines Are Changing The World’s Climate

Virus
What Comes Next in the Covid Pandemic? Modelers Are Unsure but Say Antivirals Will Make a Big Difference. | BR
 
Beyond markets
Zuckerberg ‘surrenders’ after debut of ‘Rigged’ election film

April 15 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Inflation, Semis, Banks & Grocery Shopping
We’ve been on the lookout for signs of peak inflation, and we are deflated to report none to be seen in the latest PPI and small business survey releases. Instead, they telegraphed higher-for-longer inflation in a weakening stagflationary environment. … Semiconductor-related stocks have been beaten down ytd, but analysts expect double-digit earnings growth this year and next, aided by some fast-growing end markets. … Also: Expect smaller domestically focused banks to report stronger Q1 results than their big multinational counterparts. … And: Grocery shopping with no waiting in checkout lines or schlepping bags to the car? Yep: The supermarket industry is going high tech.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 11.

Markets
S&P 500, Nasdaq fall Thursday, notch weekly losses as investors assess earnings, inflation | C
U.S. Stocks Drop Amid Wave of Bank Earnings Reports | W

Central banks
Fed’s John Williams Says Half-Point Rate Rise Is Reasonable Option for May | W

US
High Gasoline Prices Take Up Big Share of March Retail Spending Increase | W
Spending More, Getting Less as Inflation Outpaces Retail Sales | W
Mortgage Rates Hit 5% for First Time Since 2011 | W
The ‘Hell or High Water Clause’ Is Tormenting Small-Business Owners | W
Biden Administration Rolls Out Policies Aimed at Helping Underserved Groups | W

China
China’s ‘Zero Covid’ Mess Proves Autocracy Hurts Everyone | N
China Covid-19 Lockdowns Spread Beyond Shanghai to Other Cities | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russian warship sinks; Ukraine says its missile is responsible | R
Opinion: Revoking trade with Russia will deliver a powerful blow to its economy | NN
Ukraine’s past and present intertwine as a war historian seeks refuge | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: Delta Air Lines Reports $940 Million Quarterly Loss But Says March Was Profitable | N
Airlines: American Airlines pilots’ union sues carrier over training request | C
Consumer discretionary: Andy Jassy on inflation surcharge: Amazon can’t keep absorbing costs | C
Energy: Oil Industry Objects to Fees, Permits to Mitigate Accidental Bird Killings | W
Energy: Cheniere Energy exec says surging U.S. natgas prices will spur production | R

Corporate finance
Elon Musk ‘not sure’ he’ll be able to buy Twitter | C
Musk makes $43 billion offer for Twitter to build ‘arena for free speech’ | R

Virus
BA.2 Cases Rise, but Few Signs of a Covid-19 Surge So Far | W
Pfizer Says Covid-19 Booster in Children Ages 5 to 11 Sparked Immune Response Against Omicron | W

April 13 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  On the Lookout For Peak Inflation
War, supply-chain disruptions, soaring labor and commodity costs, monetary tightening causing possible recession—pshaw! All the disturbing global and US economic developments of late haven’t shaken industry analysts’ confidence that their companies are headed for record revenues, earnings, and profit margins over coming months, as passing inflated costs through to customers has been a cake walk. Our analysis of forward revenues and earnings reveals that and more. … Also: We slice and dice March CPI data, inflation expectations, and wage inflation—ever on the lookout for “peak inflation,” which may show up in June or July. … And: Is the housing market cooling off?
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 11.

Markets
Stocks End Lower as Inflation Accelerates | W
Global stocks pare gains, bond yields slip on inflation data | R

Energy
Biden to Allow More Ethanol in Gas This Summer in Bid to Lower Prices | W

Central banks
Fed’s Best Path Is to Hike Rates to Neutral Rapidly, Barkin Says | B

US
U.S. Inflation Accelerated to 8.5% in March, Hitting Four-Decade High | W
Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since 1981 | C
Federal Budget Deficit Narrowed 71% in March From Year Earlier | W

China
Chinese Stockpile Food as Covid-19 Concerns Ripple Out From Shanghai | W

Geopolitics & trade
Biden suggests Putin is a ‘dictator’ who has committed ‘genocide half a world away’ | C
Putin and Lukashenko falsely claim British operatives committed the atrocities in Bucha | C
In Ukraine, a ‘Full-Scale Cyberwar’ Emerges | W

Industries & companies
Consumer: Baby-Formula Shortage Prompts Rationing at Target, Kroger, Walgreens and CVS | W
Financials: U.S. Banks’ Pandemic Hot Streak Is Coming to an End | W
Media: CNN+ struggles to lure viewers, drawing under 10,000 daily users | C

Beyond markets
How Tech Companies Are Trying to Woo Employees Returning to Work | N
California considers a 32-hour workweek for larger companies | C
Children as Young as 8 Should Be Screened for Anxiety, Experts Recommend | W

April 12 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  TINAC: There Is No Alternative Country
Why is the stock market defying the gravity of extremely grave situations? “TINA” may hold the answer: “There is no alternative” to stocks. … But now she’s been joined by “TINAC”—“there is no alternative country.” Global investors may be taking refuge in the US stock market as a safe haven in an unsafe world. … Today, we comparison-shop equity markets around the world and conclude that foreign stocks are cheaper but for several good reasons. … And: We look at why the US dollar is strong at a time of soaring commodity prices when usually the reverse is true.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 11.

Markets
U.S. Stocks Drop as Bond Yields Climb | W
Investors Turn Cautious on Consumer Debt | W
China nudges listed firms, investors to buy stocks to stabilize market | R

Central banks
Fed’s Evans Says Good Possibility of 50 Basis Point Rate Rise in May | W

Global
Opinion | Globalization Is Over. The Global Culture Wars Have Begun. | N

US
March consumer inflation expected to be the hottest since 1981 | C
Everything Costs More, and That’s Disrupting Retirement for Many | W
New York Fed: Public Expectations for March 2023 Inflation Hit 6.6% Record | W
Home Builders Bypassing Individual Home Buyers for Deep-Pocketed Investors | W
With student-loan freeze, Biden subsidizes rich lefties | P

Japan
Japan’s wholesale inflation stays near record on Ukraine war, weak yen | R

China
How China brutalizes its people to try to achieve ‘COVID Zero’ | P
U.S. State Department orders all non-emergency government staff in Shanghai to leave as Covid surges | C
 
Geopolitics & trade
Pentagon monitoring reports of possible Russian chemical weapons attack in Mariupol | C
Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive as Moscow dismisses rape allegations | R
Ukraine’s Zelensky Calls for More Military Aid Ahead of Battles in Eastern Regions | W
China Is Accelerating Its Nuclear Buildup Over Rising Fears of U.S. Conflict | W

Corporate finance
Honda to spend $64 billion on R&D as it revs up electric ambitions | R

Climate
New Study: Arctic Was Much Warmer 6000 Years Ago… 90% Of Glaciers, Ice Caps Smaller Than Present Or Absent! – Watts Up With That?

Beyond markets
Google’s first week back: Marching bands, mayor visits, traffic jams | C

April 11 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  Don’t Fight the Fed When the Fed Is Fighting Inflation
The war in Ukraine has heightened the odds of higher-for-longer inflation, tighter-for-longer monetary policy, and recession in the US and Europe, which we peg at 30% and 50%, respectively. … The global economy is stagflating, indicators suggest. … Will reining in inflation take just a nudge from the Fed or an all-out recession-triggering shove? We hunt for the answer in FOMC officials’ recent views and the latest inflation data. … Also: The Bond Vigilantes are back in the saddle again. … And: Stock investors are trying not to fight the Fed as it fights inflation—which should make for a volatile but upward climb to our 2022 and 2023 targets. … Movie review: “Against the Ice” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 4.

Markets
Why Stocks Are Rallying in the Midst of a War and Soaring Inflation | W
The Worst Quarter in Years for Bond Fund Investors Had Few Bright Corners | BR

Central banks
The credibility-challenged Fed is about to be overtaken by reality again | P

Energy
Gas Price Surge Fuels Fights at FedEx, Uber Over Who Will Pay | W
Shell, Thales, and 3 More Stocks to Play a Changing Europe | BR
European Countries Debate How to Cut Purchases of Russian Oil | W

Global
A New Global Food Crisis Is Building, World Bank Warns | BR
When China worries about food, the world pays | E
War’s Disruption to Ukraine’s Farms Seeds Global Food Crisis | N

US
Inflation Is Here to Stay. How to Adjust Your Portfolio. | BR
Few Cars, Lots of Customers: Why Autos Are an Inflation Risk | N
America’s labor shortage is actually an immigrant shortage | CBS
School Reopening Mess Drives Frustrated Parents Toward GOP | W

Europe
France’s Macron and Le Pen head for cliffhanger April 24 election runoff | R
Why Macron matters | E

China
Shanghai Has Recorded More Than 130,000 Covid Cases—and No Deaths | W
Shanghai residents question human cost of China’s COVID quarantines | R

Geopolitics & trade
War to slash Ukraine’s GDP output by over 45%, World Bank forecasts | R
Ukraine, Russia Gear Up for War’s Biggest Battles | W
As battle looms in Ukraine’s east, Austrian leader to meet Putin | R
Desperate Ukraine tells U.S. ‘bureaucracy’ is no excuse for failing to provide critical weapons and ammunition | C
A Stricken Ukrainian City Empties, and Those Left Fear What’s Next | N
War crime charges won’t be enough to deter Putin amid atrocities | C
Russia-Ukraine war has limited impact on Europe vacation bookings | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: JetBlue is cutting its summer schedule to avoid further flight disruptions | C
Autos: Big Rigs Are Going Electric. Barron’s Drove One. | BR
Consumer discretionary: How Amazon plans to fix its massive returns problem | C
Financials: Bank Deposits Could Drop for First Time Since World War II | W
Retail: Retail Crime Is Hurting Companies and Making Inflation Worse. What Investors Should Know. | BR

Corporate finance
Stock Splits Are Popular Again. 5 Companies That Could Split Their Stocks Next | BR

Technology
Video shows what happens when a driverless car gets pulled over | C

Crypto
Crypto Industry Helps Write, and Pass, Its Own Agenda in State Capitols | N

Virus
The BA.2 Variant Is Spreading. Do You Need to Worry? | W

April 09 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  Fed’s Hawks, China’s New Priority & Europe’s Gas Seekers
The newly released minutes of the FOMC’s March meeting suggest that even the Committee’s long-time doves now are hawks. So expect upcoming rate hikes of 50bps, not 25bps. The Fed aims to tamp down inflation without igniting a recession; investors are skeptical, but we expect inflation will moderate later this year, bringing the doves back. … Also: Can China achieve its heady economic growth goals amid a Covid resurgence, strict lockdown policies, and all the economic disruptions caused by both? We doubt it. … And: A look at the odds arrayed against EU countries trying to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 4.

Markets
S&P 500, Nasdaq Fall While Bonds Extend Selloff | W
Dow climbs 100 points Friday, stocks post weekly losses after Fed comments | C
Benchmark Treasury yield hits 3-yr high; dollar index reaches 100 | R
Oil prices settle up 2%, post weekly loss on stockpile releases | R
A Market Mystery: The ‘Wheat Whale’ That Came Out of Nowhere | N

Global
Ukraine War Drives Food Prices to Record High | W

Central banks
Here’s a look at inflation-fighting pros, cons of Fed raising rates | C

US
Interest-Rate Surge Ripples Through Economy, From Homes to Car Loans | W
As inflation bites, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too | C
Congress Punts on Funding Vaccines, Treatments as Covid-19 Hits Some Lawmakers | W
Biden Plan to Combat Inflation with U.S. Manufacturing Faces Skepticism | W
Americans Are Pushing Back on the Warehouse Construction Boom | W
Blue-Collar Workers Make the Leap to Tech Jobs, No College Degree Necessary | W

China
Shanghai’s Omicron Outbreak Corners Chinese Leader | W

Europe
France’s Macron makes last-minute appeal to voters as Le Pen reaches all-time high in poll | R
 
Geopolitics & trade
Russian Missile Attack Kills Dozens at Railway Station in Eastern Ukraine | W
U.S. curbs Russian access to foreign fertilizers and valves | R
The dawn of financial warfare | FT
Ukraine War: Switzerland, Norway Join U.S. Group Limiting Tech for Russia | B
Ukraine Belongs in ‘European Family,’ EU Chief Von der Leyen Says on Kyiv Trip | B

Industries & companies
Autos: Elon Musk: Telsa may have to get into mining, refining lithium directly | C
Autos: Inside Tesla’s ‘Cyber Rodeo’ Opening Party at Austin, Texas Factory (TSLA) | B
Energy: Chevron, union negotiators to meet over California oil refinery strike | R
Financials: Big banks’ earnings and a hot inflation report could sway markets in short holiday week | C
Financials: Morgan Stanley unveils family office unit, looking to serve richest of the rich | C
Restaurants: Starbucks Hires New Strategy Chief as More Baristas Unionize | W
 
Corporate finance
WarnerMedia, Discovery complete merger, become Warner Bros. Discovery | R

Beyond markets
Pinterest Will Remove Content Deemed Climate-Change Misinformation | W

April 08 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  Fed’s Hawks, China’s New Priority & Europe’s Gas Seekers
The newly released minutes of the FOMC’s March meeting suggest that even the Committee’s long-time doves now are hawks. So expect upcoming rate hikes of 50bps, not 25bps. The Fed aims to tamp down inflation without igniting a recession; investors are skeptical, but we expect inflation will moderate later this year, bringing the doves back. … Also: Can China achieve its heady economic growth goals amid a Covid resurgence, strict lockdown policies, and all the economic disruptions caused by both? We doubt it. … And: A look at the odds arrayed against EU countries trying to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 4.

Markets
Stocks Finish Higher, Bonds Extend Fed-Driven Selloff | W
Stocks rally late, 10-yr U.S. Treasury yield touches 3-yr high | R
Carnage is epic in bonds due to Fed’s inflation error: Jim Bianco | C

Energy
Shell Warns of Up to $5 Billion Hit From Russia Exit | W
EU Backs Russian Coal Ban in First Punch at Energy Revenue | B

Central banks
Fed’s James Bullard says interest rate policy is ‘behind the curve’ | C
Bank of Japan Stocked Up On ETFs In $450 Billion Buying Spree, Now They’re Stuck | B

US
US weekly jobless claims | C
Rising mortgage rates cause more home sellers to lower asking prices | C
Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmed to Supreme Court, first Black woman justice | C
New York UBI Program Focuses on New Moms, Pregnant Women | B
The new entitlement of the American consumer | Vox

China
Manufacturers Grind to a Halt in China as Covid Lockdowns Expand | W
China uses AI software to improve its surveillance capabilities | R

Geopolitics & trade
The Russian Patriarch Just Gave His Most Dangerous Speech Yet — And Almost No One in the West Has Noticed
Russians discuss killing civilians in radio intercepts by German intelligence | WP
How Ukraine Used a Ragtag Arsenal to Thwart Russia’s Air Attacks | W
Ukraine Calls for More Arms as It Girds for Heavier Fighting Against Russia in the East | W
Horrors of Ukraine’s Bucha Laid Bare on Yablunska Street | W

Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Walmart says it is raising pay for truck drivers, starting training program | C
Consumer discretionary: Walmart Dangles $110,000 Starting Pay to Lure Truck Drivers | W
Pharma: Medicare Limits Payments for Biogen’s Alzheimer’s Drug | W

Crypto
Crypto-Like Digital Dollar at Least Several Years Away, Yellen Says | W

Virus & climate
U.S. court reinstates Biden federal employee COVID vaccine mandate | R
Shanghai, in Lockdown, Struggles to Feed Itself | W
Rising rivers force more Sydney flood evacuations as rain eases | R

Technology
New lithium technology can help the world go green — if it works | R

Beyond markets
How Many Billionaires Are There, Anyway? | N

April 07 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  Fed’s Hawks, China’s New Priority & Europe’s Gas Seekers
The newly released minutes of the FOMC’s March meeting suggest that even the Committee’s long-time doves now are hawks. So expect upcoming rate hikes of 50bps, not 25bps. The Fed aims to tamp down inflation without igniting a recession; investors are skeptical, but we expect inflation will moderate later this year, bringing the doves back. … Also: Can China achieve its heady economic growth goals amid a Covid resurgence, strict lockdown policies, and all the economic disruptions caused by both? We doubt it. … And: A look at the odds arrayed against EU countries trying to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 4.

Markets
Tech Stocks Sink, Bonds Sell Off as Investors Study Fed Minutes | W
Treasury Yields Extend Climb Into Fourth Session | W
Bonds: 10-year yield rises to 3-year high as Fed plans a speedier policy tightening | C
Mocked as ‘Rubble’ by Biden, Russia’s Ruble Comes Roaring Back | B

Central banks
Fed Signals Faster Pace of Rate Increases, Likely Bond Runoff | W
Fed officials to take cleaver to balance sheet; ‘many’ back big rate hikes | R
Fed Lays Out Plan to Prune Balance Sheet by $1.1 Trillion a Year | B

US
What the 2008 Financial Crisis Tells Us About Today’s Inflation Surge | W
Homebuilders turn to mixed-use districts, master-planned communities | C

China
China Infrastructure Push Dwarfs U.S. Spending | B
Shanghai Workers Sleep at the Office as China Extends Covid-19 Lockdown | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia hit with new round of U.S. sanctions as Biden decries ‘major war crimes’ | R
Ukraine seeks ruinous sanctions on Russia amid European hesitancy | R
U.S. sanctions Putin’s adult children, bans all new investment in Russia | C
Ukraine Urges Civilians to Flee Looming Russian Offensive in Eastern Regions | W
Hypersonic-Missile Delay Puts U.S. Further Behind Russia, China | B
‘We Will Kill You’: How Russia Silenced Its Antiwar Movement | W

Technology
SpaceX application to expand Starship Texas facility withdrawn by USACE | C

Virus
UK has detected a new Covid variant. Here’s what we know so far about omicron XE | C

April 06 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  Another Earnings Season Seasoned with Inflation
Investors should have lots of questions for company managements during the upcoming earnings calls season. First-quarter macroeconomic and survey data paint a picture of modestly improving supply-chain problems but still high costs for manufacturers. For services providers, supply-chain and cost issues continue to strain their ability to meet demand. Profit margins should hold steady this year provided that price increases offset cost increases as we expect. … While earnings and revenue growth rates probably peaked during Q2-2021, analysts’ estimates suggest both remain solidly positive during Q1. … Also: Why the job market in Europe withstood the pandemic better than in the US.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 4.

Markets
Markets Bet on Sharpest Fed Tightening in Almost Three Decades | B
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield rises above 2.6% after Brainard speech | C
Global Bonds Slump to a Discount for First Time Since 2008 | B
Europe Market News: Stoxx 600 Drops as Investors Fret Over Fed’s Tightening | B
Euro slips to month-low as West prepares new Russia sanctions | R

Central banks
Key people from the Fed just spooked the markets — here’s what they said | C
Fed’s Brainard Says Reducing Elevated Inflation ‘Is of Paramount Importance’ | W
Fed’s Brainard sees balance sheet reduction soon and ‘at a rapid pace’ | C
Fed Minutes to Reveal Long-Awaited Details on Balance-Sheet Plan | B
BOJ will be ‘alarmed’ if yen crosses 130 per dollar, says ex-vice minister | C
ECB Needs Governments to Tackle Inflation Too, Panetta Says | B

US
The US Economy Is Booming. Why Are Economists Worrying About a Recession? | N
Yellen to Warn War Threatens ‘Enormous Economic Repercussions’ | B
Add Declining Immigration to Problems Weighing on the Labor Market | W
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in February | W
New Fed study shows Biden owns our economic disaster | P

Europe
Germany Meat, Dairy Prices May Increase as Ukraine War Worsens Food Inflation | B

China
China’s Services Sector Posts Steepest Decline Since Pandemic’s Start | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russian forces pound key cities as West prepares new sanctions | R
Kyiv Residents Remain On Edge Despite Russian Retreat | W
Russia Sanctions: EU, US to Announce Penalties, Ban on New Investments | B
German coal importers say can handle Russian ban at a price | R
Ukraine’s Zelensky Calls for Removing Russia From U.N. Security Council After Alleged War Crimes | W
Survey: Nearly 70% of Americans worry about a nuclear attack. Here’s what could happen | C

Industries & companies
Pharma: U.S. Owes Pfizer $5 Billion for Covid Pills, Half of Proposed Aid Package | B

Technology
Amazon to Spend Billions on Space Launches as SpaceX Ramps Up Satellite-Internet Service | W

Corporate finance
JetBlue’s all-cash bid for Spirit Airlines complicates Frontier tie-up | C

Climate
IPCC report: Charts detail climate change | C

Virus
CDC director says high immunity in U.S. population provides some protection against omicron BA.2 | C
China’s Daily Covid Cases Top 20,000 as Isolation Expands | B
Shanghai eases child separation under COVID policy but extends lockdown | R
‘So many bodies piled up’: Hong Kong funeral services overwhelmed by COVID | R

April 05 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:  Certainly Lots of Uncertainties
There’s lots of uncertainty about what’s going to happen next in a slew of areas pertinent to investing, including whether the US economy is heading for a recession, how high inflation will go and what the Fed will do about it, how the world order is changing, and how to value stocks amid all this flux. The many unknowns have made for a volatile stock market so far this year. Today, we run through nine uncertainties that have been keeping investors guessing, sharing our analysis of each to shed what light we can. … Also: More on the “CFO Put”—the notion that corporations flush with cash are providing stock market support via buybacks, dividends, and M&A.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 4.

Markets
S&P 500 rises to start the week led by tech, Nasdaq jumps 1.8% | C
Tech Stocks Lead Market Rally | W
Russia Metals Continues to Sell Around the World Despite Invasion of Ukraine | B
Terra’s $10 billion bitcoin buying spree may be ‘catalyst’ for sidelined investors: CNBC Crypto World

Energy
Oil jumps over 3% as deaths near Kyiv prompt talk of new sanctions | R
Russia maintains gas deliveries as Europe mulls tighter sanctions | R
Ukraine War Drives Countries to Embrace Renewable Energy—but Not Yet | W

US
America’s job market is on fire. Here’s why it doesn’t feel like it | NN
With Inflation Not Letting Up, Shoppers Cut Back on Staples | W
Climate change could cost U.S. $2 trillion each year by 2100: OMB | C
 
Geopolitics & trade
Biden calls for Putin war crime trial over genocide in Ukraine | C
EU’s new Russia sanctions: Steel, luxury goods, jet fuel and more | C
Release of Ukraine Intelligence Represents New Front in U.S. Information War With Russia | W

Corporate finance
AMD Returns to Deal Making With $1.9 Billion Purchase of Chip Specialist Pensando | W

Virus
Omicron sub-variant BA.2 makes up 72% of COVID variants in U.S. – CDC | R