Dr. Ed's Blog

April 29 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Tech & Electricity
With nearly a quarter of China’s people locked in their homes by strict Covid policies, China’s economy is suffering, its policymakers are reacting, and ripple effects are spreading throughout the globe. Today, we examine some of these effects on US companies with business ties to China and on financial markets. … Also: Investors have sent tech stocks to the doghouse, their collective performance down nearly 20% ytd, and the MegaCap-8 hasn’t been spared. Indeed, Netflix and Meta are down 67% and 46% ytd. … And a look at virtual power plants, making electricity demand as adjustable as solar/wind supply is intermittent.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 25.

Markets
Tech Stocks Lead Rally; Nasdaq Rises 3.1% | W
U.S. Dollar Surges Amid Investor Jitters, Rising Yields | W
Yen Hits New 20-Year Low After Bank of Japan Reinforces Low-Rate Policy | W

Energy
Germany Drops Opposition to Embargo on Russian Oil | W
Iran Ramps Up Oil Exports as China Pulls Back on Russian Crude | W
Oil Middlemen Fueled Putin’s War Machine. Now They’re Getting Out. | W

Global supply chains
The Permian Basin Oil Field Is Running Out of Workers, Materials—and Cash | W
Intel CEO Sees Chip Shortage Lasting Into 2024 | W

US
U.S. GDP Falls 1.4% as Economy Shrinks for First Time Since Early in Pandemic | W
Economy Contracted in the First Quarter, but Underlying Measures Were Solid | N
Is It Better to Buy or Rent? Rising Mortgage Payments Make It Harder to Decide | B
Biden says he’s not considering $50,000 in student loan forgiveness | C
Joe Manchin Says ‘Ludicrous’ Electric Vehicle Tax Credit Not Needed | B

China
Op-ed: The four big threats to China’s economy | C
China’s Impossible Dream of Order | City Journal

Geopolitics & trade
Putin Really May Break the Nuclear Taboo in Ukraine | W
How the Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder Became Putin’s Man in Germany
Blasts rock Kyiv during U.N. chief’s visit, U.S. pledges new aid | R
After Russian Retreat, Ukraine’s Farmers Discover Fields Full of Mines | W
N.Korea’s Kim calls for stronger military as nuclear test work ‘well underway’ | R

Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Amazon shares fall on bleak forecast and slowest growth since dot-com bust | C
Consumer discretionary: Amazon results and outlook fall short as warehouse, fuel costs soar | R
Tech: Apple shares dip after Tim Cook warns of a possible $8 billion hit from supply constraints | C

Climate & sustainability
An Inconvenient Truth About ESG Investing | HBR
Wind Power’s ‘Colossal Market Failure’ Threatens Climate Change Fight | B
California subpoenas Exxon for details on role in plastic pollution | C
Malnourished kids crowd hospital as Ethiopia hit by worst drought in 40 years | R

Virus
Moderna Asks FDA to Clear Its Covid Vaccine for Kids Under 6 | W

Beyond markets
What Ford, a 9-to-5 workweek pioneer, is learning about hybrid work | C

April 28 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Tech & Electricity
With nearly a quarter of China’s people locked in their homes by strict Covid policies, China’s economy is suffering, its policymakers are reacting, and ripple effects are spreading throughout the globe. Today, we examine some of these effects on US companies with business ties to China and on financial markets. … Also: Investors have sent tech stocks to the doghouse, their collective performance down nearly 20% ytd, and the MegaCap-8 hasn’t been spared. Indeed, Netflix and Meta are down 67% and 46% ytd. … And a look at virtual power plants, making electricity demand as adjustable as solar/wind supply is intermittent.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 25.

Markets
Stocks Close Higher After Tech-Led Selloff | W
Nasdaq futures rise as market attempts comeback from April sell-off, Meta shares soar | C
U.S., European shares advance as euro dives to lowest since 2017 | R

Energy
Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria | R
Russian Supply Concerns Drive Natural-Gas Prices Higher | W
Russian Gas Stoppages Spur Europe’s Race for New Energy Supplies | W
Can Japan Keep the Lights On? The Ukraine War Upends a Big Energy Bet. | N
Oil edges lower as mass COVID testing begins in China | R

US
Hot Job Market, an Economic Relief, Is a Wall Street Worry | N
Administration signals student loan forgiveness decision may come soon | C

Geopolitics & trade
Russia’s New Economic Data Is Inconsistent on Impact of War and Sanctions | W

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing Looked for Flaws in Its Dreamliner and Couldn’t Stop Finding Them | W
Aerospace: Boeing shares plunge on array of charges, 737 MAX target in doubt | R

Corporate finance
Investors fret over potential Musk U-turn in $44 billion Twitter buyout | R
Elon Musk wins shareholder lawsuit over Tesla-SolarCity deal | C

April 27 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Inflated Economy
Inflation is inflating corporate revenues: All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 boast rising forward revenues ytd, eight of them to record highs. It’s also inflating nominal economic growth even as real economic growth slows. This is bullish for earnings provided that companies can keep offloading higher costs to customers via pricing and provided that no recession comes along to stop that. … Also: We review the latest economic releases, which jibe with our stagflationary outlook for 2022. … And: The global food crisis. Food shortages and food inflation are bound to worsen, with dire implications for poorer nations around the world.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 25.

Markets
Stocks Fall as Dow Drops More Than 800 Points | W
Real Yields Wade Toward Positive Territory, Denting Stocks | W

Bitcoin
Fidelity to Allow Retirement Savers to Put Bitcoin in 401(k) Accounts | W
Millennials have solved the retirement crisis | MW

Central banks
Senate Confirms Brainard as Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairwoman | W

US
March Orders for Long-Lasting Goods Rose on Auto, Computer Demand | W
Opinion: Spending on consumer goods will likely plummet in the second half of the year | NN
Home-Price Growth Accelerated in February | W
The Hottest Places to Live Now Are Often the Most Affordable | W
Biden Seriously Considering Student-Loan Forgiveness, Officials Say | W

China
Covid Lockdowns Show Xi Jinping Puts Ideology Before China’s Economy | B
China’s Xi Pushing to Beat the U.S. in GDP Growth Despite Covid Lockdowns | W

Geopolitics & trade
Poland and Bulgaria face Russian gas cut as Ukraine crisis escalates | R
Russia Tried to Sell a Huge Slug of Oil. Nobody Wanted It. | W

Industries & companies
Autos: GM will start tying executive compensation to electric vehicle targets | C
Autos: GM has 140,000 reservations for Chevrolet Silverado EV | C
Autos: Tesla stock closes down more than 12% after Musk’s Twitter deal | C

Corporate finance
Twitter in Elon’s Hands Is No Idle Distraction | W

Virus
Weekly Covid deaths have dropped to lowest since March 2020, WHO says | C
More than half of Americans have had COVID infections, U.S. study shows | R
 
Climate & sustainability
Enphase ‘tripling down’ on Europe as Russia war sends power prices up | C
Consumer Brands Push for Clean-Energy Tax Credits | W

April 26 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Waiting for a Break
Investors are fretting that the Fed will slam on the monetary brakes, sending the economy hurtling down a ravine, but how legit are their concerns? Historical behavior of stock valuations and earnings estimates prior to feared and actual recessions offers perspective. Corrections usually reflect false alarms about impending recessions, whereas sustained bear markets reflect the real thing. … We also check more conventional leading economic indicators for perspective. … Plus: Fresh supply-chain disruptions resulting from China’s widespread lockdowns could trigger a recession there and potentially weigh on growth here. … And: We examine the latest stats on another of China’s homegrown problems: its birth dearth.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 25.

Markets
U.S. Stocks Finish Volatile Session With Gains | W
Forget the FAANGs. It’s a stock picker’s market now | NN
Chinese Markets Tank as Investors Worry About Covid-19 Lockdowns | W

Currency & commodities
Column: Oil prices paralysed between Russia sanctions and China lockdowns: Kemp | R
Oil slumps 4% as Shanghai lockdowns stoke demand fears | R
Dollar ascends on China COVID fears, Fed rate hike pace | R

Central banks
Do Serious People Still Take Seriously the Fed and ‘Soft Landings’? | FO

US
Sen. Joe Manchin Pushes for Democratic Compromise on Climate Agenda | W
Biden reverses Trump move to open up more oil drilling in Arctic | C

Europe
Even in Defeat, Marine Le Pen Leads France’s Far Right Closer to Power | W

China
Beijing Orders Citywide Covid-19 Testing as Fears of Lockdown Spark Panic-Buying | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia warns ‘serious’ nuclear war risks should not be underestimated | R
Higher inflation factors into review of tariffs on Chinese goods- White House | R

Corporate finance
Twitter Accepts Elon Musk’s Offer to Buy Company in $44 Billion Deal | W
Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter leaves many key questions unanswered | C
What Elon Musk Would Do With Twitter | W

Virus
U.S. FDA approves Gilead’s Covid-19 drug remdesivir for young children | C

April 25 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Forces of Inflation vs The Forces of Deflation
The stock market is correcting again, fear is rising again, and valuations are sagging under the weight of a hawkish Fed and rising bond yields. Yet consensus expected S&P 500 earnings continues breaking records. With 2022 shaping up as a volatile year for stocks, we anticipate a rally following the current selloff. … Also: Might “stayflation” frustrate the Fed’s 2.0% inflation goal? … We explain our view of inflation as a tug-of-war between four inflationary forces and four deflationary ones. … And: Treasury Secretary Yellen calls for a new world order featuring a “unified coalition of sanctioning countries,” the exclusion of pariah nations, and the “friend-sharing” of supply chains. Movie: “Inventing Anna” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 18.

Markets
Oil prices extend losses as Shanghai lockdowns hit demand outlook | R

Central banks
Why the Federal Reserve has made a historic mistake on inflation | E
After getting inflation so wrong, can the Fed now get it right? | E
The perils of expanded balance-sheets | E
The danger of excessive distraction | E
The Fed Wants to Raise Rates Quickly, but May Not Know Where to Stop | W

US
Workers Are Changing Jobs, Raking In Big Raises—and Keeping Inflation High | W

Europe
Macron beats far-right rival Le Pen in French presidential election | C

China
China’s two-front fight to quash the virus and revive its economy | E
Covid-19 Cases Jump in Beijing as New Deaths Triple in Shanghai | W

Geopolitics & trade
Brussels prepares to hit Russia with ‘smart sanctions’ on oil imports, The Times says | R
Top U.S. Officials Meet With Zelensky in Kyiv | W
Poland’s prime minister says the West’s appeasement of Vladimir Putin must stop | E
Chinese political interference has Western spooks worried | E

Industries & companies
Communications services: Facebook Is Broken. Execs Say a Fix Won’t Come Fast. | BR
Media: What doomed CNN+? How rival strategies and executive intrigue fueled the streaming service’s rapid demise | C
Retail: Apple Store Workers Seek to Unionize, Following Efforts at Amazon, Starbucks | W

Corporate finance
Twitter is reportedly taking another look at Musk takeover bid | C

Climate
Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Have Environmental Impact That Lasts Decades | W
A Different Kind of Solar Power Attracts Attention | W

Virus
Have People Been Given the Wrong Vaccine? | BI

April 23 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: LNG, Credit & Green Buildings
Natural gas prices are higher than they’ve been in over a decade owing not to demand but supply issues. The crux of the problem: Europe’s need to find non-Russian sources of gas. Jackie reports on the factors that have been turning the screws on the natural gas market and looks at where the S&P 500 Energy sector stands after its huge runup. … Also: A look at how the high-yield, asset-backed, and municipal areas of the bond market are faring with the Fed in tightening mode. … And: Some innovative green buildings blur the lines between indoors and out.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 18.

Markets
Dow Tumbles Nearly 1,000 Points as Stocks Extend Selloff | W
Why Midterm Election Years Are Tough for the Stock Market | N
U.S. bonds: Treasury yields rise following Powell rate hike remarks | C

Central banks
Fed’s Mester casts doubt on the need for ‘shock’ interest rate hikes ahead | C

Global
Global Growth Ebbs in Face of Ukraine War, China Slowdown | W

US
How America Gave Up on Overtime for Workers | Time
The Best Job Markets Aren’t in the Biggest Cities | W

China
New Details of Shanghai Nursing Home Covid Deaths Suggest City Is Overwhelmed | W

Europe
Marine Le Pen’s Far-Right French Party to Pay Nearly $13 Million to Russian Military Contractor | W

Geopolitics & trade
‘And who will come next?’ warns Zelenskiy after Russian general eyes southern Ukraine | R
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Digging Mass Graves for Civilian Victims | W

Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: How the “Amazon Way” is transforming the future of work – Vox
Communications services: Verizon Loses Subscribers and Warns of Inflation’s Toll | W
Media: Netflix and Facebook stock have plunged since tech’s November peak | C
Retail: American Eagle pitches internal supply chain platform to retail rivals | C
Tech: As Europe Approves New Tech Laws, the U.S. Falls Further Behind | N
Tech: EU agrees on internet rulebook for Google, Facebook, other tech giants | R

Technology
Ukraine Sounds Alarm on Chinese Drones, Opening Skies to U.S. Startups | W

Climate
Democrats want EPA to investigate impacts of crypto mining | C

April 22 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: LNG, Credit & Green Buildings
Natural gas prices are higher than they’ve been in over a decade owing not to demand but supply issues. The crux of the problem: Europe’s need to find non-Russian sources of gas. Jackie reports on the factors that have been turning the screws on the natural gas market and looks at where the S&P 500 Energy sector stands after its huge runup. … Also: A look at how the high-yield, asset-backed, and municipal areas of the bond market are faring with the Fed in tightening mode. … And: Some innovative green buildings blur the lines between indoors and out.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 18.

Markets
U.S. Stocks Finish Lower as Bond Yields Rise | W
Wall Street ends down, oil gains as Powell suggests aggressive Fed policy | R
The West Is Still Buying Russian Oil, but It’s Now Harder to Track | W

Global
U.S. Treasury’s Yellen, White House say World Bank needs major ‘reboot’ | R

Central banks
Powell says taming inflation ‘absolutely essential,’ and a 50 basis point hike possible for May | C
Fed’s Powell, half-point hike in view, completes hawkish pivot | R
Fed’s Powell Seals Expectations of Half-Point Rate Rise in May | W
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to retire in early 2023 | C

US
Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise | W
How the Supply Chain Crunch is Hurting California Farmers. | N

China
Shanghai says its lockdown will only be lifted in batches | R
China Covid lockdown: Workers in Shanghai struggle to get back to work | C
China’s overseas coal ban sees 15 projects cancelled – research | R

Geopolitics & trade
Biden Says U.S. to Send Ukraine $800 Million in Military Aid | W
‘I’m a Former Marine Training Ukrainians—The Russians Are Worse Than ISIS’ | ampproject.org

Industries & companies
Autos: Honda developing three new electric vehicle platforms by 2030 -executive | R
Media: Netflix, Facing Reality Check, Vows to Curb Its Profligate Ways | W
Media: CNN+ Streaming Service Is Shutting Down a Month After Launching | W

April 21 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: LNG, Credit & Green Buildings
Natural gas prices are higher than they’ve been in over a decade owing not to demand but supply issues. The crux of the problem: Europe’s need to find non-Russian sources of gas. Jackie reports on the factors that have been turning the screws on the natural gas market and looks at where the S&P 500 Energy sector stands after its huge runup. … Also: A look at how the high-yield, asset-backed, and municipal areas of the bond market are faring with the Fed in tightening mode. … And: Some innovative green buildings blur the lines between indoors and out.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 18.

Markets
Dow jumps 249 points on Wednesday, but the Nasdaq is dragged down by a big plunge in Netflix | C
Dollar’s Upward March Reaches a Nearly Two-Year High | W

Central banks
Fed’s Daly says the economy can handle rate hikes, but a mild recession is possible | C

US
U.S. Economy Grows Moderately Amid High Inflation, Ukraine Invasion | W
March existing home sales fall, median price sets new record | C
This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent by Jason Furman | Project Syndicate
“The Great Resignation” Is a Great Exaggeration | The Nation
Bernie Sanders’ team says he has ‘not ruled out’ 2024 bid | C

Europe
Macron, Le Pen clash in heated French election debate | R

Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine Needs $5 Billion Monthly to Keep Its Economy Afloat, IMF Chief Says | W
Russian Offensive Bears Down on Donbas as West Races to Supply Ukraine With More Weapons | W
Russia tests nuclear-capable missile that Putin calls best in world | R
From YouTube to Rutube. Inside Russia’s Influence Campaign. | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla races ahead of rising raw material costs on price hikes | R
Airlines: Opinion: Get ready for crowded planes and higher fares this summer | NN
Media: Netflix stock plunges on shocking subscriber loss | C
Media: Legacy media disrupted Netflix with streaming offerings, now it risks similar fate | C

Climate & sustainability
Lithium costs a lot of money—so why aren’t we recycling lithium batteries? | Ars Technica

Corporate finance
Startup investors are worried the pandemic boom is about to end | Vox

Virus
Relief, confusion and disappointment as masks come off on planes | C

April 20 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Corporate Finance In Focus
Today, we roll up our sleeves, lift the hood, and take a close look at the mechanics of corporate finance. … We show how corporate America’s record levels of profits and cash flow are deployed. … We also show how a lack of understanding of corporate finance has given rise to some blatantly false notions of progressives—e.g., that share buybacks drive better stock-price performance and that money used repurchasing shares and paying dividends detracts from what’s available to spend on workers and capital investments.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 18.

Markets
Dow adds 499 points, Nasdaq climbs 2% as investors shake off slow start to week | C
Stocks Close Higher as Earnings Season Ramps Up | W
Oil prices rise 1% after sinking in previous session | R

Central banks
Fed’s Bostic expresses caution about the pace of interest rate hikes | C

Global
IMF cuts global growth forecast due to “seismic waves” from Russia’s war in Ukraine | R

US
Bank of America CEO says spending is healthy despite roaring inflation | C
U.S. forgives 40,000 student loans, provides aid to 3.6 million more | R
Why did Congress let the expanded child tax credit expire? | Vox

Geopolitics & trade
Russia begins a new phase of its war in Ukraine | E
New surrender deadline in Mariupol as West promises Ukraine more arms | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: Airports, Other Transit Split on Requiring Masks After Federal Mandate Is Dropped | W
Media: Roku, Disney, other streaming stocks slide after Netflix report | C
Media: Netflix is exploring lower-priced, ad-supported plans after years of resisting | C
Media: Netflix warns password sharing crackdown is coming | C
Pharma: How China’s Sinovac compares with BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine | E

Climate
‘The amount of energy required by direct air carbon capture proves it is an exercise in futility’ | Recharge

Virus
Covid: TSA will not enforce mask mandate on public transit after court ruling | C
Biden administration will appeal lifting of mask mandate, if CDC agrees | R

Corporate finance
Blackstone Bets on Campus Housing With $13 Billion Acquisition | W

April 19 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: How Will the Fed Stop The Wage-Price Spiral?
Can the Fed pull it off? Can it surgically subdue inflation without inflicting much collateral damage on the US economy? The now unanimously hawkish FOMC intends to try. Their current game plan seems to anticipate five increases of 50bps each, possibly at the next five FOMC meetings. … Meanwhile, we are on the lookout for signs of peaks in the latest inflation indicators; used car and truck prices are the first. … Rent and wages, on the other hand, are spinning upward along with prices in a mutually reinforcing spiral—calling into question the Fed’s optimism. … Also: A look at the causation loop between inflation and fiscal policy. … Movie review: “Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
See subscribers’ link below for today’s Morning Briefing.
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 18.

Markets
Stocks waver on Monday as a big week for earnings gets underway, rates rise | C
Price of corn hits 9-year high as surge in commodities continues | C
Natural gas surges to highest level since 2008 as Russia’s war upends energy markets | C
 
Central banks
Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This | W

Global
World Bank Cuts 2022 Global Growth Outlook on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | B
Treasury Secretary to meet with top finance ministers to address global food crisis | C
The taxman cometh… for the internet | The Hill

US
Fears of recession are everywhere — except the White House | P
Small Businesses Object to Rerouting of Covid-19 Aid | W
Homebuyers Discouraged by Rising Mortgage Rates, Prices, N.Y. Fed Survey Finds | B
Homeowner Groups Seek to Stop Investors From Buying Houses to Rent | W
Is College Worth It: Most Graduates Work in Other Fields | B

China
China’s Economy Grew 4.8% in First Quarter, Beating Expectations | W
China’s Covid-19 Restrictions Threaten Economic Recovery | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Rivian CEO on growth, Amazon vans, SPAC bubble and lower-priced EVs | C
Homebuilder: Homebuilder sentiment drops for fourth straight month | C
Retail: Apple retail union organizers want to be paid at least $30 per hour | C

Geopolitics & trade
In Ukraine’s South, Russian Occupiers Tighten the Screws | W
Russia Has Found No Place Yet to Invest Reserves After Sanctions | B
 
Corporate finance & crypto
Musk: Twitter board will be paid nothing if he acquires the company | C
Cutting-Edge Crypto Coins Tout Stability. Critics Call Them Dangerous. | W

Climate
European Green Energy Firms Often Fall Short on Financing | N

Virus
BA.2 Proves the Pandemic Isn’t Over, but People Are Over It | W
Florida judge overturns CDC mask mandate for planes and public transit | C
Leaving Covid safety to personal choice will ‘come back to bite us,’ ex-Obama health official says | C