Dr. Ed's Blog

July 13 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings, Inflation & Europe
Industry analysts are starting to lower their earnings estimates for some of the companies they follow. They aren’t doing so because they suddenly see an imminent recession but rather profit margins getting squeezed. …We don’t expect this morning’s June CPI release to show a peaking of inflation just yet. July’s CPI should do so. We see inflation moderating during the second half of this year and further in 2023. … Also: A peek into the world of Europe’s credit markets. These markets have been buffeted lately, first by the ECB’s hawkishness, then by its reassurances of help for the most indebted of the Eurozone’s nations.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 11.

Markets
Stocks, Oil Fall on Growth Concerns | W
China Stocks Hit Fresh Turbulence, Casting Doubt Over Recent Rebound | W
Dividend Payouts Hit Record Despite Rocky Stretch in Markets | W
Ackman to Close $4 Billion SPAC | W

Currency & commodities
Markets Plan Doomsday Scenarios If Russia Stops Gas Supply to Europe | B
Euro reaches parity against dollar, hits lowest level since 2002 | C
OPEC’s First 2023 Outlook Shows No Relief for Oil Market Squeeze | B

US
IMF Cuts Month-Old Forecast for US GDP, Citing Inflation Risks | B
Inflation is expected to be hotter in June, but a peak may be showing | C
New York Fed Survey Finds Long-Term Inflation Expectations Falling | W
Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation | W
Maybe the answer to $5 gas is higher pay | The Hill

Europe
Eight candidates make cut in race to succeed UK PM Johnson | R

Geopolitics & trade
Switzerland, Playground of Russian Oligarchs, Emerges as Sanctions Weak Link | W
Biden’s Woes at Home Loom Over Mideast Trip That’s All About Oil | B

Beyond markets
Covid: Hospitalizations have doubled since May as omicron BA.5 sweeps U.S. | C

July 12 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Thumbs Up or Down For Q2 Earnings?
Ready for the earnings season? Investors have been fearing a recession since this year began, as depressed stock valuations attest, while industry analysts have catapulted their earnings and revenues estimates to record highs. There’s certainly no recession evident in forward revenues or forward earnings. … We think Q2 earnings calls will be full of examples of inflation boosting companies’ results and the Fed’s response to inflation not yet depressing them. However, the strong dollar and weaker global economic growth will weigh on earnings. Today, we provide a sector-specific rundown of issues that we expect to hear a lot about on Q2 earnings calls.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets
U.S. Stocks End Lower Ahead of Inflation Data, Earnings Season | W
Global shares decline, bond yields slide and dollar rallies amid inflation fears | R
Global Investors Dump Bonds of Chinese Banks That Lent Heavily to Russia | W

Central banks
Those Predicting a ‘Fed-Induced Recession’ Misunderstand the Meaning of Recession | FO

US
Most Democrats want Biden not to run for president in 2024 | C
Biden’s bombed with business, and there’s panic in the C-suite | P
Donald Trump and the Midterms | W
Democratic-Led States Let Their Federal Unemployment Debts Linger | W
Homebuyers are canceling deals at highest rate since start of Covid | C

Europe
Europe fears extended shutdown as Russia halts gas flows to Germany | C
Chip Giants to Build Factory in France as Global Supply Race Rolls On | W
UK inflation still likely to fall sharply next year, BoE’s Bailey says | R

Emerging
Chile currency plunge, inflation rattle Latin America’s copper king | R

Geopolitics & trade
Chinese Communist Cells in Western Firms? | W
Global Tax Talks Hit Another Delay | W

Industries & companies
Media: Moviegoers are leaving their couches for theaters, bringing summer box office sales close to pre-pandemic levels | C
Retail: Amazon’s smart grocery carts are coming to some Whole Foods stores | C
Retail: Nobody likes self-checkout. Here’s why it’s everywhere | NN

Climate
Farmers are making thousands of dollars from carbon credits | C
Texans Are Asked to Conserve Power as Extreme Heat Threatens Electric Grid | W

Technology
Miners Are Relying More on Robots. Now They Need Workers to Operate Them. | W

Corporate finance
Hiltzik: Musk wants out of his Twitter deal, no surprise there | LA Times

Beyond markets
First Full-Color Image From NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope Unveiled by Biden | W
Omicron Strains Drive New Covid Wave in Europe as Measures Fall Away | W

July 11 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Reassessing the ‘Banana’ Scenario
Is a recession imminent? Is it here already? How big an impact will it have, if it comes, when it comes? The dreaded “R” word has everyone in a tither, and so does the weakness in the LEI. But the CEI suggests everything’s just fine. We recap the latest economic releases and how they’ve led us to the subjective probabilities we assign to four alternative economic scenarios. … We also assess how well peaks in the S&P 500 presage recessions. … And: The stock market may have hit its bear bottom already according to the Da Vinci Code, if inflation is peaking and that tempers the Fed’s hawkishness. Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Staircase” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets
The Stock Market Faces Next Test as Inflation Looms Over Earnings Season | W
Premarket stocks: Inflation and markets have a complicated relationship | NN
Dividend Stocks Can Help During Recession. Here’s What to Look For. | BR

Central banks
For the Fed, Easing Too Soon Risks Repeat of Stop-and-Go 1970s | W

Global
Sri Lanka Crisis Flashes Warning for Other Indebted Economies | W
 
Europe
Manufacturers Brace for Nord Stream Repairs, Fearing Pipeline Won’t Reopen | W
France’s President Emmanuel Macron decides to go it alone | E

Japan
Shinzo Abe’s Goal of Revising Japan’s Constitution Moves Closer After LDP Election Victory | W

China
China factories are feeling some heat as U.S., Europe demand slows | C
Fed Up With China, One Boss Tries Removing It From the Supply Chain | W

Geopolitics & trade
Polish-German relations have gone sour | E
Ukraine War Pushes Millions of the World’s Poorest Toward Starvation | W

Industries & companies
Energy: Exxon Mobil’s Darren Woods: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Media: Box office: ‘Thor: Love and Thunder’ has $143 million domestic opening | C
Pharma: Pfizer’s Albert Bourla: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Retail: Amazon Prime Day 2022: Why deal experts say you might want to skip it | C
Retail: Nordstrom’s Erik Nordstrom: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR

Beyond markets
Brazil party official shot dead as pre-election political violence escalates | R
Abe killer wielded homemade gun, grudge over mother’s financial ruin | C

July 09 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & Batteries
China’s stock market has enjoyed a nice bounce this year as President Xi’s policies have grown more business friendly as the Chinese Communist Party meeting approaches. We remain concerned about the heavy debt loads forcing Chinese real estate development companies to restructure. We’re also watching Covid cases and Chinese exports to the slowing US and European economies. … We also take a look at which industries’ consensus earnings have been revised down by analysts so far this year. … Electric vehicles may emit less CO2 than internal combustion engines, but manufacturing and disposing of lithium batteries is an awfully dirty business.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets
Dow, S&P 500 Slip as Jobs Growth Remains Strong | W
What Smart Investors Do in Bear Markets | W
How to Invest for Retirement During a Bear Market | N
Nasdaq rises for fifth-straight day after strong jobs report as Wall Street notches winning week | C

Commodities & currency
Gas Prices Have Fallen for 24 Straight Days. The Relief Might Only Be Temporary. | W
The One Commodity That Won’t Stop Soaring | OilPrice.com
What’s the Impact of the Strong Dollar on My Portfolio? | Morningstar
How Low Can the Euro Go? | W
Food Prices Squeeze Poorest in Rich Countries | W

Central banks
Jobs Report Could Keep Fed on Track for 0.75-Point Rate Rise in July | W
Eurozone Banks Fail to Factor In Climate Risks, ECB Says | W

US
U.S. Added 372,000 Jobs in June | W
Here’s where the jobs are for June 2022 — in one chart | C
Involuntary part-time worker numbers dip to lowest level in 21 years | C
Big payroll gains push recession fears into the corner — for now | C
The Economy Could Have a Long Case of Long Covid | W
Housing-Affordability Index Drops to Lowest Level Since 2006 | W

Japan
Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe assassinated at campaign event | C

Geopolitics & trade
Why tensions between China and Taiwan are on the rise | C
U.S. to send 15th military package to Ukraine, bringing total aid in Russia war to $7 billion | C
U.S., Chinese foreign ministers hold first talks since October | R
Fitch downgrades Turkey’s debt rating to ‘B’ from ‘B+’ | R

Corporate finance
Elon Musk notifies Twitter he is terminating deal | C

Crypto
Fed’s Brainard says crypto needs regulation before it becomes too big | C
Bitcoin heads toward best week since October as crypto collapse stabilizes | C

July 08 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & Batteries
China’s stock market has enjoyed a nice bounce this year as President Xi’s policies have grown more business friendly as the Chinese Communist Party meeting approaches. We remain concerned about the heavy debt loads forcing Chinese real estate development companies to restructure. We’re also watching Covid cases and Chinese exports to the slowing US and European economies. … We also take a look at which industries’ consensus earnings have been revised down by analysts so far this year. … Electric vehicles may emit less CO2 than internal combustion engines, but manufacturing and disposing of lithium batteries is an awfully dirty business.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets
Stocks Close Higher as Investors Parse Economic Data | W
Gasoline futures are dropping, which could mean more relief at the pump | C

Central banks
Fed officials Waller and Bullard back another big interest rate increase in July | C

US
Mortgage Rates Fall to 5.30%, Reflecting Recession Fears | W
San Francisco Home Prices Start to Fall as Headwinds Mount | B
Big Cities Can’t Get Workers Back to the Office | W
Working Parents Are Having a Rough Summer. Some Co-Workers Don’t Want to Hear About It. | W
Ron DeSantis plans Utah fundraiser with GOP megadonors, signaling possible presidential run | C
Even managers are quitting their jobs and joining the Great Resignation | Vox

Europe
Boris Johnson Resigns Amid Scandals but Says He Will Remain U.K.’s Prime Minister Until Successor Is Found | W
UK Labor Demand Grows at Slowest Pace in 16 Months, REC Says | B

Industries & companies
Retail: Walmart won’t hold rival event to Amazon Prime Day | C

Corporate finance
Spirit again delays vote on Frontier deal to continue deal talks with budget airline and JetBlue | C

Technology
3-D Printing Grows Beyond Its Novelty Roots | N

Crypto
Crypto Tumult Highlights Lack of Investor Protections | W

July 07 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & Batteries
China’s stock market has enjoyed a nice bounce this year as President Xi’s policies have grown more business friendly as the Chinese Communist Party meeting approaches. We remain concerned about the heavy debt loads forcing Chinese real estate development companies to restructure. We’re also watching Covid cases and Chinese exports to the slowing US and European economies. … We also take a look at which industries’ consensus earnings have been revised down by analysts so far this year. … Electric vehicles may emit less CO2 than internal combustion engines, but manufacturing and disposing of lithium batteries is an awfully dirty business.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets
Stock Markets Inch Higher as Investors Study Fed Minutes | W
Treasury yields jump as Fed hints at another big hike at next meeting | C

Central banks
Fed Saw ‘More Restrictive’ Rates Possible If Inflation Persists | B
Japan could be about to surprise markets with monetary policy | C
 
Global
IMF chief says ‘cannot rule out’ possible global recession | R
World hunger rising as U.N. agencies warn of “looming catastrophe” | R

US
Inflation Fears Drove Larger Fed Rate Increase in June | W
Hot job market and Great Resignation persist despite recession threat | C
Hiring Demand Remained Strong in May | W
Cheap Rent? Here’s Where Apartment Market Is Starting to Cool Off | B
That Fancy University Course? It Might Actually Come From an Education Company. | W

Europe
France’s Macron Confronts Divided Parliament With Plan to Raise Retirement Age | W

Japan
Japan’s Kishida hopes to put stamp on premiership in upper house polls | R

Geopolitics & trade
China Escalates Efforts to Influence U.S. State and Local Leaders, Officials Warn | W
N.Korea’s Kim convenes conference for strengthening ‘monolithic’ party rule | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines pilots get triple pay for trips dropped in scheduling glitch | C
Autos: GM reports worst sales in China since onset of Covid-19 lockdowns | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon and Grubhub Strike Deal to Bring Restaurant Delivery to Prime Members | W
Media: Hulu faces existential crisis as Disney decides how to move forward | C
Media: Big Hollywood movies are being made with Chinese audiences in mind – Vox
Tech: Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode is meant to stop state-sponsored hacking | C

Beyond markets
FDA Will Help Overseas Baby-Formula Makers Keep Selling in U.S. Beyond Shortages | W
Covid-19 Vaccine Doses, Once in High Demand, Now Thrown Away | W

July 06 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: A Recession: To Be or Not To Be?
The latest batch of leading economic indicators suggests weaker coincident indicators to come. As a result, we’re raising our odds of a shallow, short-lived recession in the US economy to 55% (from 45%). That makes a recession now our base-case scenario from which we derive our earnings and stock market forecasts. … Higher recession odds lower our expectations for what S&P 500 companies will earn, what investors will pay for their stocks, and where the S&P 500 price index may stand at year-ends 2022 and 2023. … Also: Melissa looks at the factors contributing to global food inflation and the regions most vulnerable to food shortages.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets I
Stocks Finish Mixed Amid Worry About Slowing Economic Growth | W
H2 market outlook: Strategists on how to weather the market storm | C
Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again | C

Markets II
Explainer: U.S. yield curve inverts again: What is it telling us? | R
Oil tumbles as much as 10%, breaks below $100 as recession fears mount | C
Euro slides to 20-year low against the dollar as recession fears build | C

Central banks
Why Consumers’ Inflation Psychology Is Stoking Anxiety at the Fed | W
Accelerating Inflation in Asia Puts Pressure on Central Banks to Raise Rates | W

US
If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One | W
Bosses Offer Midyear Raises to Retain Employees as Inflation Takes Toll | W
Americans Tap Pandemic Savings to Cope With Inflation | W
Biden still weighing China tariff options as requests to keep them pile up | R
Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy | W

Europe
U.K. Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid Resign From Boris Johnson’s Government | W

China
China’s Housing Market Pain Set to Continue After Sales Bottom | B
China’s $1.2 Trillion Wealth Fund Loses Two Directors Adding to Exodus | B

Japan
Analysis: Inflation, not deflation, is now Japan’s political hot potato as election looms | R

Industries & companies
Media: Why ‘Minions’ beat ‘Lightyear’ at the box office | C
Retail: Walmart Tells Suppliers New Fuel and Pickup Fees Are Coming | W

Corporate finance
Global Corporate Debt Burden Declines as Costs Surge Amid Recession Fears | B

July 05 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Second Half of 2022
The US economy is probably heading into a mild recession, recent indicators suggest. We now see real GDP contracting by 1.9% this year. … The good news: The recession should be over next year and should slow the rate of inflation in H2-2022 and 2023. The sooner the business cycle bottoms, the sooner the stock market will. … Analysts will be getting the recession memo shortly and cutting their estimates accordingly. We’re doing so now, lowering our earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies this year and next.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 27.

Markets
Markets Had a Terrible First Half of 2022. It Can Get Worse. | W
The Best Income Investments Now | BR
Falling Commodity Prices Raise Hopes That Inflation Has Peaked | W
Coal Makes a Comeback as the World Thirsts for Energy | W

Global
China’s Slowdown Could Tamp Down Global Inflation | W

Commodities
How Food Became Putin’s New Strategic Weapon | W
Ukraine says Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkey | R
No guarantees Swiss will always have enough gas, minister says | R
Production at Venezuela’s largest refinery hit by blackout | R

US
If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One | W
Millennials Were Optimistic About Their Financial Future—but Now, Not So Much | W
Americans Have Had It With Inflation | W
Bezos slams Biden’s call for gasoline stations to cut prices | C

Europe
Fresh faces on the far right and left fill France’s parliament | E
Chancellor Olaf Scholz takes taciturnity to new levels | E
Ukraine War Hits Germany With First Trade Deficit in Over Three Decades | W

China
Some Chinese want their country to move closer to communism | E

Geopolitics & trade
Russia says its forces now have full control of east Ukraine region | C
Ukraine war: How would a G-7 price cap on Russian oil work? | C
The Quad expands beyond naval military exercises — and China watches | C
NATO holds its most important summit for decades | E
How to win Ukraine’s long war | E

Industries & companies
Airlines: U.S. flight disruptions finally ease as the holiday weekend winds down | C
Airlines: American Airlines scheduling glitch allows pilots to drop thousands of July flights | C
Airlines: Air New Zealand: Beds in economy class on airplanes by 2024 | C
Autos: German road traffic agency says 59,000 Tesla vehicles have software glitch | C
Autos: AutoZone and 3 Other Auto Parts Stocks That Look Like Buys | BR
Media: Minions: Rise of Gru domestic box office opening tops $108 million | C
Pharma: Merck Covid-19 Pill Prescribed Frequently in Some Countries Despite Low Efficacy | W
Retail: Glut of Goods at Target, Walmart Is a Boon for Liquidators | W
Tech: Chip Boom Loses Steam on Slowing PC Sales, Crypto Rout | W

Corporate finance
As interest rates climb and the economy cools, can companies pay their debts? | E
Investment Banks Prepare for Lean Times as Deal Spree Sputters | W

Crypto
Crypto Took Wall Street on a Wild Ride. Now It’s Ending in Tears. | BR

July 02 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Health Care, Finance & Batteries
The S&P 500’s Health Care sector is pumped: It has outperformed most other sectors ytd and is tied for first place (with Utilities) measured since the S&P 500’s recent low on June 16. Jackie parses the opportunity, examining the investment pros and cons of the sector overall and of specific industries and companies within it. … Also: Which fintechs deserve master accounts with access to the Fed’s payments system? A couple of recent controversies put that question front and center as the Fed works on rules to govern the process of granting master accounts. … And: A look at where Tesla is going with its battery technology.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 27.

Markets
Stocks rally to end the first day of the second half, Dow jumps 300 points | C
U.S. Stocks Finish Higher After Worst Start to Year in Decades | W
Opinion: Stocks could drop 50%, Nouriel Roubini argues. Things will get much worse before they get better. | MW

Energy & climate
JPMorgan Sees Oil at $380 on Worst-Case Cut by Russia | B
Exxon signals operating profits could double over the first quarter | R
Biden Proposes New Offshore Drilling Leases | B
India bans single-use plastic to combat pollution | R

Central banks
Eurozone Inflation Hits New High, Pressuring ECB to Raise Key Rate More Forcefully | W

US
Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows the U.S. economy is likely in a recession | C
Cooling Demand for Goods Threatens to Turn Pandemic Boom Into Bust | W
Will Home Prices Fall? Sudden Housing Turn Has Sellers Paring Expectations | B
Gas Prices Force Many to Rethink Driving, and Spending | N
 
China
Wuhan Sees Virus Return Days After Xi Reinforces Covid Zero in China | B
China’s Xi Jinping Says Hong Kong’s Loyalty to Beijing Will Ensure Prosperous Future | W
 
Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: Ukraine requests Turkey detain Russian-flagged ship it says carrying Ukrainian grain | R
Chinese company’s purchase of North Dakota farmland raises U.S. security concerns | C
U.S.-China Competition Zeroes In on Growth | W
TikTok tells U.S. lawmakers it’s working to protect user data | C
There’s a massive pile-up of car, furniture exports bound for US | C

Industries & companies
Autos: GM Says Unfinished Cars to Hurt Quarterly Results | W

Beyond markets
How America’s Summer Vacation Came Back Stronger Than Ever | W

July 01 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Health Care, Finance & Batteries
The S&P 500’s Health Care sector is pumped: It has outperformed most other sectors ytd and is tied for first place (with Utilities) measured since the S&P 500’s recent low on June 16. Jackie parses the opportunity, examining the investment pros and cons of the sector overall and of specific industries and companies within it. … Also: Which fintechs deserve master accounts with access to the Fed’s payments system? A couple of recent controversies put that question front and center as the Fed works on rules to govern the process of granting master accounts. … And: A look at where Tesla is going with its battery technology.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 27.

Markets
Stocks fall, S&P 500 posts worst first half in decades | C
Markets Post Worst First Half of a Year in Decades | W
Treasury Bonds Rally at End of Second Quarter | W

Energy & climate
Natural gas drops 16%, posts worst month in more than three years | C
U.S. natgas plunge 17% as Freeport LNG outage leaves more fuel for storage | R
Supreme Court limits EPA authority to set power plant climate standards | C
Shiploads of Russian Grain and Good Weather Temper Wheat Crisis | W

Central banks
Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose 4.7% in May, around multi-decade highs | C
U.S. inflation data offer no quick relief to Fed, but hint at a peak | R
EXCLUSIVE ECB to channel cash from north to south in bid to cap spreads – sources | R

US
U.S. employers see signs of cooling job market | R
Cooling Consumer Spending Points to Further Economic Slowdown | W
New Fed Tracker Shows Rising Strains in Corporate Debt | W
Housing shortage starts easing as listings surge in June | C
Mortgage Rates Drop After Three Weeks of Increases | W
Economic Growth, Not Austerity, Is the Answer to Inflation | W

China
China’s Economy Returns to Growth Mode as Covid-19 Lockdowns Lift | W
Xi Jinping Visits Hong Kong to Mark Anniversary, Capping Crushing of Dissent | W

Geopolitics & trade
U.S. to Support Ukraine for ‘As Long as It Takes,’ Biden Says | W
Why Does China Own So Much of Ukraine? | W
Why blood makes up over 2.5% of all U.S. exports | C

Technology
FCC approves SpaceX Starlink service to vehicles, boats, planes | C

Virus
FDA backs changing Covid boosters to target recent omicron subvariants | C

Crypto
EU agrees to deal on landmark MiCA cryptocurrency regulation | C
FTX closes in on a deal to buy embattled crypto lender BlockFi for $25 million in a fire sale, source says | C