Dr. Ed's Blog

September 23 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 19.

Markets
Bond selloff risks liquidation of world’s most crowded trades- BofA | R
2-year Treasury tops 4.2%, a 15-year high as Fed continues to jolt short-term rates higher | C
Oil prices down 3% with recession fears in focus | R
Goldman Sachs cuts 2022 target for S&P 500 by 16% | R
HSBC warns investors to avoid European stocks | C

Central banks
ECB seeks to cut subsidy to banks as rate hikes leave it on hook, sources say | R

Global
War, Inflation Knock World Economy Off Balance | W

US
Charts suggest inflation could soon come down ‘substantially’ | C
From a booming economy to an economic bust! | Washington Examiner

Geopolitics & trade
Putin’s ‘incredibly dangerous’ nuclear threats raise the risk of an unprecedented disaster | C
Google Sees Russia Coordinating With Hackers in Cyberattacks Tied to Ukraine War | W
U.S. vs. China: The Race to Launch the Next Generation of Space Telescopes (video) | W

Industries & companies
Logistics: FedEx hikes package rates, details cost cutting as demand weakens globally | C

Pandemic
WHO warns ability to identify new Covid variants is diminishing as testing declines | C

September 22 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 19.

Markets
Fed Rate Decision Sends U.S. Treasury Yields in Different Directions | W
Japan Jumps Into Market to Buy Yen for First Time in 24 Years; Currency Rallies | W
Japan intervenes in FX market to stem yen falls after BOJ keeps low rates | C

Energy
The U.K. has lifted its fracking ban, digging up a long-running debate | C

Central banks
The Fed forecasts hiking rates as high as 4.6% before ending inflation fight | C
Fed rate hike September 2022: Rates raised by three-quarters of a percentage point | C

US
U.S. Home Sales and Prices Fell in August as Mortgage Rates Rose | W
After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce | W
Workers’ Changing Attitudes Tighten Labor Market | W
Opinion | Can Republicans Tax the Rich? | N
House Approves Electoral Count Act Overhaul as Senate Weighs Own Changes | W

Europe
Italian election: Italy turns to the right with FDI’s Georgia Meloni | C

Geopolitics & trade
Russia begins massive Ukraine war call-up, spurring some men to flee | R
Ukraine war: Russia arrests over 1,300 after Putin mobilizes troops | C
Biden Urges the World to Stand United Against Russia in Address to U.N. | W
Ecuador Reaches Deal With China to Restructure Debt | W
Semiconductor alliances between U.S. and Asia could hold back China | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline tickets could become even more expensive, aviation execs warn | C
Communications services: Meta Quietly Reduces Staff in Cost-Cutting Push | W
Retail: Target plans to hire 100,000 seasonal workers and start deals early | C

Climate
China urges Europe to take positive steps on climate change | R
Will the Patagonia founder’s gift help save the world? | The Week

September 21 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Central Banks
S&P 500 forward earnings works well as a leading indicator of actual results during expansions and a coincident indicator of them during recessions; the same goes for forward revenues and forward profit margins. … Our takeaways from the three forward data series add up to a flat forward earnings outlook through early next year—a rosy viewpoint amid widespread recession trepidation. Our forward earnings and P/E forecasts together suggest a range-bound S&P 500 for the rest of this year. … Also: Melissa ferrets out the policy intentions of the ECB and BOJ.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 19.

Markets
S&P 500 History Points to a Sharp Bounce After Fed Meeting | B
Why Index Funds Could Fade | BR
Woke Wall Street is in for a reckoning | FO
High Natural-Gas Prices Push European Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S. | W

Central banks
Fed expected to hike rates by three-quarters of a point again, but its forecast may matter most | C
‘Rip off the Band-Aid’: Wells Fargo makes case for 150 basis point hike at Fed meeting | C

US
Climbing Housing Costs Could Prop Up Inflation for a While | W
August Home-Sales Report Comes as Mortgage Rates Rise | W
Mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks, despite sharply higher interest rates | C
The puzzling disconnect between production and employment | Hill
Democrats’ push for guaranteed income is a slap in the face to working people | P
Food Supply Stays Tight as Disappointing U.S. Harvest Adds to Global Challenges | W

China
China’s Vast 14,000-Bed Covid Isolation Center Revealed in Drone Footage | B

Geopolitics & trade
Putin accuses West of ‘nuclear blackmail’, mobilises more troops for Ukraine | R
Germany nationalizes energy giant Uniper as Russia squeezes gas supplies | C
European businesses are rethinking their plans for a ‘closed’ China | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines will add new premium suites in 2024 in race for high-paying travelers | C
Autos: Ford stock suffers worst day since 2011 after cost warning, shedding $7 billion in market value | C

Technology
Watch Regent take its prototype electric seaglider out for a test flight | C
The robots are here. And they are making you fries. | WP

September 20 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: How’s Business?
Today we focus on business sales, showing how it relates to the key economic indicators that feed into our economic outlook and how it correlates with S&P 500 companies’ aggregate and forward revenues, feeding into our stock market outlook. … For the economy, we forecast a “rolling recession”—a.k.a. “growth recession”—that depresses different industries at different times but avoids shrinking the overall economy. For the S&P 500, we estimate forward EPS of $215 this year, up 3.1% y/y, and $235 next year, up 9.3%.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 19.

Markets
Stocks Rise as Investors Await This Week’s Fed Meeting | W
Wall Street ends choppy session higher with focus firmly on Fed | R
Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, stocks snap two-day losing streak to start big Fed week | C
Need Your Money Now? The Markets Aren’t Helping. | N

Credit
10-year Treasury yield jumps to 3.51%, the highest level since 2011 | C
Rising Bond Yields Change the Calculus for Stocks | W

Central banks
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker | W

US
More homebuilders lower prices, sentiment falls for ninth straight month | C
Put Away the Smelling Salts, the Fed Doesn’t Threaten Washington’s ‘Solvency’ | FO
The Subprime Loans for College Hiding in Plain Sight | N
 
Geopolitics & trade
China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says | W
EU Seeks New Powers Over Supply Chains During Emergencies | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: FAA rejects proposal to halve pilots’ flight-time requirement amid shortage | C
Autos: Ford Warns Parts Shortages Will Lead to Higher-Than-Planned Number of Unfinished Vehicles | W
Materials: This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t. | W

Corporate finance
VW Sets Price Range for Porsche IPO | W

Technology
China’s Factories Accelerate Robotics Push as Workforce Shrinks | W

Beyond markets
Biden Draws Criticism for Saying Covid-19 Pandemic Is Over | W

September 19 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Blackouts & Liquidity
Fed Chair Powell seems to be channeling his 1970s predecessor Paul Volcker—who masterfully tamed high inflation amid a severe recession. Today, we assess how August’s CPI shocker may alter the FOMC’s economic projections and policy decisions. … We expect Wednesday’s FOMC meeting to bring a 100bps hike in the fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% and more hawkish projections of committee members, suggesting a terminal rate this tightening cycle of 4.25%-4.50%. … For the economy, we expect the current rolling recession to continue without turning into an official recession because there is ample liquidity to avert a credit crunch. And: Dr. Ed reviews “Five Days at Memorial” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 6.

Markets
Stocks subdued, dollar firm for central bank jamboree | R
Oil Prices Retreat After an Earlier Surge. Why That Makes Perfect Sense. | BR
Dollar off 20-year peak as Fed headlines big central bank week | R
Dollar’s Rise Spells Trouble for Global Economies | W

Central banks
Do Wages Drive Prices, or Vice Versa? The Answer Matters for Interest Rates | W

US
Consumers Show Signs of Uncertainty Amid High Inflation | W
America still has an inflation problem | E

Emerging markets
India, Indonesia, and Brazil Are About to Outshine Other Emerging Markets. Here’s How Investors Can Profit. | BR
‘At the Breaking Point’: Tibetans, Under Lockdown, Make Rare Cries for Help | N
China’s Factories Accelerate Robotics Push as Workforce Shrinks | W
China’s Ponzi-like property market is eroding faith in the government | E
Frugal is the new cool for young Chinese as economy falters | R

Geopolitics & trade
Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion | R
Vladimir Putin’s Energy War With Europe Seems to Falter | W
Vladimir Putin’s war is failing. The West should help it fail faster | E
Op-ed: Putin’s battlefield failures provide an opportunity for the world to step up efforts to help end the war in Ukraine | C

Industries & companies
Autos: Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready | W
Energy: Electric Bills Soar Across the Country as Winter Looms | W
Financials: Big Regional Banks Might Face New Rules for Dealing With a Crisis | W
Materials: Newmont Stock Cheap and Has a 5% Dividend Yield. It’s Time to Buy. | BR
Media: Netflix and Disney+ Ads Are Almost Here. What It Means for Streaming Stocks. | BR
Retail: Home-Goods Retailers Jolted by Slowdown in Housing Market | W
Retail: Bed Bath & Beyond closing 150 stores. Map of ones on the list so far | C

Climate
Devastating floods like Pakistan’s will be more common in a warming world | E
 
Corporate finance
Volkswagen targets $70.1 billion to $75.1 billion valuation in planned Porsche IPO | C

Technology
China testing floating car that uses magnets to hover at 143 mph | C
 
Beyond markets
As Britons Wait to See Queen’s Coffin, ‘The Queue’ Takes On a Life of Its Own | W
Games That Push the Brain to the Limit Get Scientists’ Attention in Fight Against Dementia | W

September 17 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, Strikes & Hydrogen
How the mighty have fallen. We’re talking about the eight large-capitalization stocks dubbed the “MegaCap-8,” which collectively—and most individually—have sorely underperformed benchmarks. When these behemoths swoon, most Growth portfolios feel the thud. … Also: Unions are up in arms over wages that aren’t surging as fast as inflation, and they’re feeling empowered by the tight labor market. Strikes may be coming. Jackie looks at some hot spots in various industries. … And: Don’t dismiss hydrogen as a green alternative to fossil fuels. It’s starting to look like the go-to fuel source for energy-intensive industrial processes.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 6.

Markets
U.S. Stocks Close Lower After FedEx Warning | W
Stocks close lower on Friday, extending sell off for worst week since June for S&P 500 and Nasdaq | C

Energy
Column: U.S. gas producers struggle to meet demand | R
Putin tells Europe: if you want gas then open Nord Stream 2 | R
Germany Takes Control of Oil Refineries Owned by Russia’s Rosneft | W

Central banks
Forecast for Fed terminal rate hits new high, shaking stocks and bonds | R

US
Strikes Becoming More Common Amid Inflation, Tight Labor Market | W
As Mortgage Rates Top 6%, More Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Loans | W
NYC Mayor Eric Adams asks tech execs to keep companies in the city | C
New York City is nearing the tipping point in return to office work | C

Geopolitics & trade
Putin Threatens to Walk Away From Ukraine Grain Deal | W
Exclusive: Zelenskiy accuses Russia of war crimes, sees no early end to war | R

Industries & companies
Retail: Home Depot’s customers have been resilient despite turmoil, CEO says | C
Shipping: FedEx Stock Tumbles After Warning on Economic Trends | W

Technology
Scientists hail autoimmune disease therapy breakthrough | Science | The Guardian

Crypto
Here’s what’s in Biden framework to regulate crypto | C

September 16 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, Strikes & Hydrogen
How the mighty have fallen. We’re talking about the eight large-capitalization stocks dubbed the “MegaCap-8,” which collectively—and most individually—have sorely underperformed benchmarks. When these behemoths swoon, most Growth portfolios feel the thud. … Also: Unions are up in arms over wages that aren’t surging as fast as inflation, and they’re feeling empowered by the tight labor market. Strikes may be coming. Jackie looks at some hot spots in various industries. … And: Don’t dismiss hydrogen as a green alternative to fossil fuels. It’s starting to look like the go-to fuel source for energy-intensive industrial processes.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 6.

Markets
U.S. Stocks Close Lower as Investors Eye Next Fed Meeting | W
Oil extends losses on recession fears | R
Dollar holds ground ahead of Fed, yuan under pressure | R

Global
World Bank sees rising risk of global recession in 2023 | R
Globalization of trade isn’t ending, despite Covid, war, inflation | C

Central banks
Opinion: 3 things the Fed needs to see before it stops hiking rates | NN

US I
U.S. Retail Sales Rose 0.3% in August, Showing Resilience in Face of Inflation | W
U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week | W

US II
This is how much Social Security benefits are likely to rise next year | MSN
Mortgage Rates Top 6% for the First Time Since the 2008 Financial Crisis | W
Biden says haters won’t have ‘last word’; wants to end social media immunity | R

Europe
Households a Wild Card as Europe Moves to End Russian Gas Dependence | W
How Did Europe Stumble Into an Energy Catastrophe? (nymag.com)

China
China economy: August industrial output, retail sales | C

Japan
Japan PM’s support tumbles as anger over state funeral grows | R

Geopolitics & trade
Russia’s Vladimir Putin Says China’s Xi Jinping Raised Concerns on Ukraine War | W
Ukraine Battles Flooding After Russian Strike on Dam | W

Industries & companies
Chemicals: From Shortage to Glut: Scotts Miracle-Gro Is Buried in Fertilizer | W
Railroads: Railroads and labor unions reach tentative deal to avert strike | C
Shipping: FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a ‘worldwide recession’ | C
Shipping: FedEx to Close Offices, Park Aircraft After Warning of Sales Shortfall | W

September 15 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, Strikes & Hydrogen
How the mighty have fallen. We’re talking about the eight large-capitalization stocks dubbed the “MegaCap-8,” which collectively—and most individually—have sorely underperformed benchmarks. When these behemoths swoon, most Growth portfolios feel the thud. … Also: Unions are up in arms over wages that aren’t surging as fast as inflation, and they’re feeling empowered by the tight labor market. Strikes may be coming. Jackie looks at some hot spots in various industries. … And: Don’t dismiss hydrogen as a green alternative to fossil fuels. It’s starting to look like the go-to fuel source for energy-intensive industrial processes.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 6.

Markets
Stocks Edge Higher After Steep Selloff | W
Markets Keep Making the Same Mistake About Inflation | W
Oil rises on weakening dollar, potential supply disruptions | R

Central banks
Brace for recession as the Fed spikes interest rates and inflation soars | NYP
Federal Reserve Wants Citigroup to Move Faster to Fix Problems With Its Risk Systems | W

US
Inflation for U.S. Suppliers Remained Elevated in August | W
U.S. Inflation Remained High in August | W
Possible U.S. Railroad Strike Could Fuel More Inflation | W
Battery Recycling Race Heats Up After Inflation Reduction Act | W

Europe
Russia’s Economic War Hits Europe’s Factories | W

Japan
Japan posts record trade deficit in August as energy imports soar | R

Industries & companies
Autos: 2024 Ford Mustang: Gas-powered muscle car to take on electric rivals | C
Autos: Ford asks dealers to invest in EVs as it chases Tesla-like profit | C
Autos: Tesla struggles with Elon Musk’s strict return to office policy | C
Railroads: U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak to cancel all long-distance trains | C

Geopolitics & trade
China’s next Taiwan targets are lifelines of the US economy | The Hill
Russia Strikes Zelensky’s Hometown as Ukrainian President Visits Recaptured Territory | W
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy sees damage in recaptured towns; Russia strikes city water system | R
 
Technology
Taiwan president warns of ‘volatile’ challenges facing chip industry | R

Climate
Patagonia founder gives away company to help fight climate crisis | R
Newsom to CNBC: California avoided rolling blackouts in extreme heat

September 14 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Corporate Finance Review
An Austrian assessment of August’s CPI. … And: It’s time again to focus on US corporate finance. We find American businesses in great shape—with record-high profits and cash flow on income statements and solid balance sheets. The effect of the chronic labor shortage on profit margins is businesses’ biggest challenge, but workarounds are coming that should boost productivity. … Also: Progressives give share buybacks a bad name, but they play a key role in corporate finance: counteracting the dilution from stock compensation plans. … And: Both worker compensation and capital spending remain on healthy uptrends, also contrary to popular (progressive) belief. … Finally, we recap capital markets activity from Fed data.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 6.

Markets
Analysis: Why the dollar’s wrecking-ball rally is not done yet | R

Central banks
Inflation Data Scrambles Fed Rate Outlook Again | W

Energy
EU seeks $140 billion to cope with energy crisis as utilities teeter | R
EU Seeks to Raise $140 Billion Clawing Back Energy Profits | W
EU plans windfall levies on energy firms to tackle price spike | R
Europe can shrug off Putin’s Chinese gas Plan B | R
Global Oil Demand Undermined by China Lockdowns, IEA Says | W

US
Inflation isn’t just about fuel costs anymore, as price increases broaden across the economy | C
U.S. Inflation Remained High in August | W
Feel burnt out at work? The Great Resignation left many workers behind. – Vox
Mortgage demand declines 29% from last year as rates eclipse 6% | C

Europe
UK inflation rate unexpectedly dips to 9.9% as fuel prices decline | C

Geopolitics & trade
EXCLUSIVE U.S. weighs China sanctions to deter Taiwan action, Taiwan presses EU | R
Putin, Erdogan to Meet Amid Questions Over Ukraine Grain Deal | W
As Ukraine recaptures lost land, is this a turning point in the war? | C

Industries & companies
Retail: Walmart, Target Urge Lawmakers to Pass Bill Taking Aim at Visa, Mastercard Fees | W

Pandemic
Johns Hopkins Slows Frequency of Covid-19 Data Publication | W
Covid-19 booster shots may become as routine as the flu shot | MSNBC

Corporate finance
Wall Street slump leads to 50% plunge in JPMorgan advisory revenue | C

Beyond markets
Royal Family Will Unite to Accompany Queen Elizabeth II’s Coffin Through London | W

September 13 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Keeping Up With The Joneses
Q2 GDP revisions may well show that the US economy was not in a recession during H1 after all. If so, we have the consumer to thank. Consumer spending has held up well this year despite depressed sentiment and inflation-eroded purchasing power. But purchasing power soon should get a shot in the arm as wage inflation starts outpacing price inflation. … Also: A look at how much the average US household spends and on what. … News flash: “The Joneses” have been spending as though they’ve never been better off—because they haven’t! Inflation-adjusted consumption per household has been running at a record high.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 6.

Markets
US Inflation Data Will Determine If Stock Rally Continues | B
Inflation ‘collapse’ will spark big stock market gains: Credit Suisse | C
JPMorgan slashes EM corporate debt issuance forecast by a third | R

Commodities & currencies
Oil Extends Advance as Weaker US Dollar Offsets Demand Concerns | B
U.S. emergency oil reserves tumble to lowest since 1984 | R
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Down 13 Weeks in a Row | W

Central banks
NY Fed Says Consumers Saw in August Steep Declines in Future Inflation | W
Falling gas prices are raising hopes that inflation is slowing, New York Fed survey shows | C
Fed is likely to pause by year end, says Evercore’s Julian Emanuel | C
Earliest BOJ Shift May Come in Mid-2023, Ex-Board Member Says | B

US
Sliding Earnings Forecasts Pose Next Test for Markets | W
World’s Hottest Housing Markets Are Down All Over as Interest Rates Hike | B
Guaranteed Income Programs Spring Up City by City | N

Industries & companies
Financials: Goldman Sachs to kick off Wall Street layoff season with hundreds of job cuts this month | C
Restaurants: Starbucks to unveil ‘reinvention’ strategy at investor day on Tuesday | C
Tech: Apple iOS 16 released: Here’s what’s new and how to get it | C
Travel: Expedia CEO: ‘Business travel is back’ true to my pandemic prediction | C

Technology
Assembly OSM makes pre-fab high rises like Boeing makes airplanes | C

Pandemic
Covid-19 Illnesses Are Keeping at Least 500,000 Workers Out of U.S. Labor Force, Study Says | W