wiar 10-17-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 17 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Mostly All About Inflation
More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment. … We continue to think the economy is undergoing a rolling recession afflicting different industries at different times. We also think that inflation might be following a similar rolling script. Notably, goods inflation pressures have abated as services inflation pressures have picked up.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.

Markets
Whiplash in Stock Market Shows Investors Are Still on Edge | W
The Stock Market Rebound Fizzled. Why a Real Bottom Could Be Forming Soon. | BR
Markets are reeling from higher rates. The world economy is next | E
Stocks Look Alluring for the Longer Term, say U.S. money managers | BR
If Ukraine Wins and Putin Loses, What Happens to Markets? | BR
Junk-Rated Companies Search for the Right Time to Tap Investors | W

Commodities
OPEC+ members line up to endorse output cut after U.S. coercion claim | R
OPEC production cuts: Why Saudi Arabia’s move might not help Russia all that much | Vox
Gazprom CEO says gas price cap would lead to supply halt | R
Column: Record European copper premiums as buyers shut out Russia | R

Global
High Inflation Darkens Global Economic Outlook | W
Households across the rich world have never been so gloomy | E

Central banks
The Fed will continue to raise interest rates: How high could they go? | The Hill

US
How Americans feel about the economy | E
When Mortgage Rates Might Stop Rising, and More Takeaways From a Top Housing Market Economist | BR
Some Companies Are Leaving California as It Pushes Ahead on Regulations | BR
White House pushes ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight | C

Europe
Thousands take to the streets of Paris to protest soaring prices | R

China
China’s Xi Is Getting a Third Term. Investors Are Hoping Something Gives. | BR
Xi Jinping’s Quest for Control Over China Targets Even Old Friends | W
China’s Xi talks up security, reiterates COVID stance as congress opens | R
China’s Xi downplays need for rapid growth, praises Covid achievements | C
At China’s Communist Party congress, Xi Jinping sails on undaunted | E
An obsession with control is making China weaker but more dangerous | E
China is no longer just any emerging market | C
 
Geopolitics & trade
Failure to Control Ukraine’s Skies Betrays Key Flaw in Russia’s War Strategy | W
Xi warns against Taiwan interference at China’s CPC national congress | C

Industries & companies
Autos: For GM auto union workers, there’s still a lot to learn about EVs | C
Financials: The Stocks Are Down, but Regional Banks Are Stress-Tested With 4% Dividends | BR
Materials: 8 Mining Stocks: Why Their Long-Term Outlook Is Bright | BR
Retail: Kohl’s Faces a New Activist Push to Change Its Board | BR
Tech: Tech Companies Embrace Silicon Valley, Despite Rising Regulation | BR
Tech: Why the Chip-Ban Panic Over Taiwan Semiconductor May Be Overblown | BR
Tech: Meta Horizon Worlds metaverse losing users, falling short of goals: Report | C

Technology
Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill In for Scarce Workers | W
 
Climate
Shasta Lake Helped Water California; Now Its Dryness Is a Threat to the State | W

Beyond markets
Elites realize they need blue-collar workers they derided | P
It is becoming harder to take off a sick day | E
Elon Musk tweets on Starlink: ‘We’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free’ | C

wiar 10-15-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 15 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.

Markets
Stocks Drop After Wild Surge on Wall Street | W
Dow closes 400 points lower to end a wild week of trading | C
Groping for a Bottom – The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)
Jamie Dimon says expect ‘other surprises’ from choppy markets after U.K. pensions nearly imploded | C
OPEC+ Cuts Could Lead To Supply Deficit In Oil Markets | OilPrice.com

Global
IMF Urges Faster Debt Relief for Nations Fighting High Inflation, Hunger | W

Central banks
Federal Reserve probing Bostic’s trading after blackout period transactions | C
Exclusive-Fed’s Bullard favors ‘frontloading’ rate hikes now, with wait-and-see stance in 2023

US
Americans Spend Less on Gas, More on Food as Inflation Varies Across Items | W
Inflation and the Midterm Elections | W
Deere invests $29.8M to shift production from China to Louisiana (NYSE:DE) | Seeking Alpha

Europe
U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss Fires Treasury Chief, U-Turns on Taxes | W

China
Xi Jinping’s Endgame: A China Prepared for Conflict With the U.S. | W
A Slew of China Builders Gets Ratings Dropped as Crisis Worsens | B
Chinese Internet Users Lose Access to WeChat App After Beijing Protest | W

Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: EU ministers to discuss Iran drones to Russia, future sanctions, sources say | R
Sweden shuns formal joint investigation of Nord Stream leak, citing national security | R
Marine Le Pen Wants France to Chart Its Own Course Between U.S. and Russia | W
U.S. Has Made ‘Dramatic Change’ in Technology Used for Nuclear Code System | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Lithium for Tesla, EVs, batteries: Touring Silver Peak, Nevada | C
Pharma: Review: Abbott Freestyle Libre 3 CGM for diabetics | C
Retail: Retail Spending Was Flat in September Amid High Inflation | W

Corporate finance
Kroger and Albertsons in Deal Talks to Create Supermarket Powerhouse | W
Fed Approves U.S. Bancorp Acquisition of MUFG Union Bank | W

Beyond markets
Omicron BA.5 is declining as emerging variants gain ground: CDC data | C

wiar 10-14-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 14 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.

Markets
Dow Closes More Than 800 Points Higher in Volatile Day | W
Bond Yields End Higher After Wild Session, Lifted By Inflation Data | W
As Bond Investors’ Bets Blow Up, They Might Usher In Era of Higher Rates | W

Central banks
Inflation Report Seals Case for 0.75-Point Fed Rate Rise in November | W
A gummy theory for the Fed’s high-stakes interest rate gamble | NN

Energy
Threat Against Gas Plant in Norway Rattles Tense European Markets | W
Column: Europe’s gas prices retreat as storage almost full | R
EU Readies New Proposals to Drive Down Energy Costs | W
A shift in global energy demand could be coming this winter | C
Biden signals new effort to lower gasoline prices next week | R

US
Inflation Sits at 8.2% as Core Prices Hit Four-Decade High | W
Inflation’s Storm From the Shelter | W
Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2022 — in one chart | C
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.92%, a 20-Year High | W
Delaying big purchases, reducing debt: How to prepare for a recession | C
Opinion: Employers should stop caring so much about college degrees | NN

China
Morning Bid: Xi bangs the drums | R
What Do Chinese People Think of Xi Jinping? It’s Very Hard to Tell | W
Posh ice cream, craft beer in vogue as Chinese downsize their love of luxury | R

Geopolitics & trade
Analysis: China faces its “Sputnik” moment as US export curbs deal a blow to its chip ambitions | R
Seoul scrambles fighters as North Korean planes fly close to border | R
Treasury’s Yellen says Russia’s war has weakened its economy | C
Exclusive: Russia is prepared to quit Black Sea grains deal, writes to UN with demands | R

Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon executives overseeing Alexa, hardware group depart the company | C
Financials: BlackRock Profit Falls 16% | W
Media: Netflix’s Ad-Supported Plan Will Launch in November at $6.99 a Month | W
Media: Netflix to get Nielsen ratings as streaming giant rolls out ad-supported plan | C
Tech: Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse Struggles | N

Climate
White House pushes ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight | C

Beyond markets
U.S. extends Covid public health emergency | C
Ben Bernanke Led the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis | N

wiar 10-13-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 13 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.

Markets
S&P 500 closes lower, notching six days of losses ahead of key inflation report | C
Stocks Slip After Fed Minutes and Inflation Data | W
Stocks Move in Lockstep as Fed’s Rate Increases Show No Mercy | W
Cash is king again as money managers are in no rush to embrace risk with Fed raising rates | C
Treasury yields fall slightly as traders await Thursday’s CPI report | C
Column: OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market | R

Central banks
Federal Reserve Worry About Faster Inflation at Last Meeting | N
Fed officials worried more about doing too little on inflation than too much | R
Fed Minutes Show Concerns of More Persistent High Inflation | W
How the Fed Might Slow Down | W
ECB closing in on rule change to shave banking profits, sources say | R
 
Global
IMF Urges Governments Restrain Spending to Fight Inflation | W
Treasury’s Yellen says global economy faces headwinds, warns of geopolitical ‘coercion’ | R

US
Consumer inflation seen to have run hot in September, boosted by rent | C
Labor Hoarding Could be Good News for the Economy | N
ACT Test Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in More Than 30 Years | W

China
A Dissident Escapes Xi Jinping’s China and a Life ‘Made Up of Lies’ | W

Europe
Bank of England Ultimatum Puts New Pressure on U.K. Markets | W
U.K. Pension Funds Rush to Raise Cash as Central-Bank Deadline Looms | W

Geopolitics & trade
How Ukrainian Strategy Is Running Circles Around Russia’s Lumbering Military | W
U.N. denounces Russian ‘annexation’ while West backs Ukraine with more air defenses | R
U.S. may block Russian aluminum imports -source | R
Putin moots gas hub in Turkey with Nord Stream supplies | R
Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles | R
U.S. Sees ‘Decisive Decade’ Ahead in Competition With China, Russia | W

Industries & companies
Autos: GM’s Chevrolet Trax crossover comes with new tech, design, lower price | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon’s growing private label business is challenge for small brands | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon Second Prime Day: Shoppers Pick Household Goods Over Pricey TVs, Laptops | B
Tech: The Quest Pro’s $1,500 ticket to Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse | Vox

Beyond markets
Deadly Ebola Outbreak Spreads to Uganda’s Capital | W

wiar 10-12-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 12 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Most Widely Anticipated Recession In History
Some areas of US economy are thriving while others flounder, and several looming challenges signal tough times ahead. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO yesterday said a recession is coming. Our assessment is that a rolling recession is already here and should linger well into next year. … We’re raising our Q3 forecast for real GDP and lowering our Q4 one. … Notably, small business owners remain depressed, with inflation topping their worry list even as they’re forced to exacerbate it. … Also: Industry analysts have been continuing to lower their earnings sights; we may do the same for S&P 500 earnings this year and next depending on the strength of Q3 earnings results.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.

Markets
Further 20% fall in U.S. stocks ‘certainly possible’: IMF director | C
Federal Officials Trade Stock in Companies Their Agencies Oversee | W

Global
IMF Warns Rate Increases Could Spur A Global Recession | N
IMF Warns of Growing Global Risks, Says U.K. Turmoil Largely Contained | W

US I
Biden Says Very Slight Recession Is Possible, but He Doesn’t Anticipate One | W
U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to highest level since 2006 | R
Demand for riskier home loans is high as interest rates soar | C
Supplier-Price Report to Offer Clues on September Inflation Trend | W

US II
Federal Deficit Fell by $1.4 Trillion in Fiscal Year 2022, CBO Estimates | W
The never-ending state of rotten and excessive government | WT
Legal challenges could hamper U.S. rule to limit independent contracting | R
Whither Long-Term Inflation? | Morningstar

China
American Universities Continue to Falter in World Rankings as China Rises | W
China’s ‘liberal’ Wang Yang seen as possible premier as reshuffle looms | R

Japan
Japan Bond Market Sets Record for Nothing Happening | W

Geopolitics & trade
NATO, partners to discuss bolstering Ukraine air defence | R
Putin blames Europe for energy crisis as EU works on price cap | R
U.S. Suppliers Halt Operations at Top Chinese Memory Chip Maker | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: United adds new trans-Atlantic flights for summer 2023 in bet on travel recovery | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon cost cuts under Andy Jassy reflect new reality after 25 years | C
Tech: The CHIPS Act alone won’t secure US semiconductor supply chains | The Hill
Tech: Meta Quest Pro: A $1,500 Virtual-Reality Headset for Working in the Metaverse | W

Corporate finance
Philips to Take $1.3 Billion Write-Down on Sleep-Apnea Business | W
Vista Equity Nears Roughly $4.5 Billion Deal for Cybersecurity Provider | W

Beyond markets
Covid news: U.S. is tracking omicron subvariants but booster should protect | C

wiar 10-11-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 11 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: More Inflation (News) Is Coming
The financial markets have been laser focused on inflation news this year, and are bracing for the next couple of days’ releases. Thursday’s CPI report for September is bound to move the markets, and tomorrow should bring a sneak peek of what it holds in store via the PPI release, specifically its personal consumption expenditures index. … Today, we examine the inflation information available to date in preparation for the big releases. … Notably, global supply-chain pressures eased in September, and the prices-paid indexes in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs are way down from their peaks.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.

Markets
Nasdaq registers lowest close since July 2020; chips stocks fall | R
German bond yields jump after Scholz reported to support joint EU debt | R

Central banks
Two Fed Officials Make Case for Caution With Future Interest Rate Raises | W
Fed’s Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses | C
Ark’s Cathie Wood issues open letter to the Fed, saying it is risking an economic ‘bust’ | C
Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party? | The Big Picture
Bank of England Offers More Support for Pension Funds Amid Crisis | W

Global
World’s Emergency-Lending Capacity Is Getting Stretched as Crises Deepen | W

US
Price Increases Come Easily for Big Businesses, but Inflation Still Squeezes Profits | W
JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns of recession in 6 to 9 months – CNBC | R
Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in or near a recession and history shows stocks have more to fall | C
Fix the housing market by widening the pathway to work | Washington Examiner

Europe
Column: Pension fund jam may jolt private credit boom | R

Geopolitics & trade
Sweden won’t share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia – PM | R
Russia Unleashes Its Biggest Barrage of Strikes on Ukraine Since Invasion | W

Industries & companies
Autos: GM, Ford shares tumble after UBS downgrades cite weakening demand | C
Retail: Retailers Kick Off Black Friday in October Again, This Time With Too Much Stuff | W
Tech: PC shipments fall for HP, Lenovo and Dell but Apple shipments rise in Q3 | C

Corporate finance
Bio-Rad Laboratories in Talks to Combine With Qiagen | W

Climate
Earthquake rattles Taiwan, but epicentre out at sea | R

Beyond markets
Why China was quiet quitting well before the rest of the world caught on | C

wiar 10-10-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 10 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Volcker 2.0 vs Bernanke 2.0?
Our current Fed chief has recently turned to Paul Volcker’s playbook to fight inflation. The risk is that he will trigger the kind of financial instability that occurred during Ben Bernanke’s term as Fed chair. Powell and his colleagues seem hellbent on further rate hikes with no pause to assess the impacts of recent ones. One Fed governor recognizes the risks of doing so but agrees with the Fed’s risky course. Another one is quite dismissive of financial stability concerns. But we see red flags in the weakness of the housing market, the negative wealth effect, and the strength of the dollar. … Also: The labor market remains robust, but wage inflation may be peaking. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Operation Mincemeat” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 3.

Markets
Growth Funds Gave Hopes to Investors in the Third Quarter. They Disappointed Instead. | BR
Since 1311 bond yields have fallen with metronomic regularity | E

Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Is Superstrong. 8 Ways to Invest Abroad. | BR
Strong Dollar Pressures U.S. Manufacturing Rebound | W

Global
A new macroeconomic era is emerging. What will it look like? | E
Elderly populations mean more government spending | E
Steel and Iron-Ore Prices Are Weakening as Global Economy Slows | BR

Central banks
Policymakers are likely to jettison their 2% inflation targets | E
Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn | W
Payrolls Are Strong, Oil Is Rising, and the Fed Seems Intent on Raising Rates. | BR

US
The inflation problem will get better before it gets worse | E
Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian believes core inflation ‘is still going up’ | C
The Biden administration is quietly completing bits of Donald Trump’s wall | E

Europe
Europe Can Weather a Recession, Says Franklin Templeton’s Katrina Dudley | BR
Can Italy’s Giorgia Meloni afford the things she wants? | E
There are not enough Germans to do the jobs Germany needs | E

China
China’s Xi Is Getting a Third Term. Investors Are Hoping Something Gives. | BR
Xi’s Third Term Will Double Down on a Mission of Revitalizing Chinese Socialism | BR

Japan
Japan reopens to tourists with shuttered souvenir shops, hotel staff shortage | R

Energy
Why fracking cannot solve Europe’s energy crisis | E
Paris Cuts the Lights to Save Energy. Will It Help? | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia Scrambles to Reconnect Supply Lines to Crimea After Bridge Explosion | W
Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge blast, calls it terrorism | R
North Korea launches missile toward sea after U.S.-South Korea drills | C

Industries & companies
Autos: Not Ready to Go Full EV? Some Car Companies Bet Bigger on Hybrids | W
Autos: Tesla sells record China-made vehicles in September following Shanghai factory upgrade | C
Media: Showtime chief’s exit signals Paramount moving toward streaming merger | C
Retail: Retailers trot out 12-foot skeletons to boost Halloween sales | C

Corporate finance
Elon Musk’s Twitter Deal Is Very Pricey. Here’s the Math. | BR

Technology
Generative AI: Silicon Valley’s next trillion-dollar companies? | C

Beyond markets
Space mining business still highly speculative | C

wiar 10-08-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 08 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 3.

Markets
Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs report | C
Treasury Yields Rise After Jobs Data | W

Energy
OPEC+ oil output cut shows widening rift between Biden and Saudi royals | R
EXCLUSIVE U.S. Navy jet flew across Baltic hours after Nord Stream burst | R

Central banks
Fed to deliver another big rate hike as job market fails to cool | R
Fed on Track for Another Large Interest-Rate Hike After Jobs Report | W
Fed Officials Say Stubborn Inflation Justifies Continued Rate Increases | W
September job gains affirm that the Fed has a long way to go in inflation fight | C
Global Fallout From Rate Moves Won’t Stop the Fed | N

US
U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in September, Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling | W
Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% in September, payrolls rise by 263,000 as job market stays strong | C
Here’s where the jobs are for September 2022 – in one chart | C

Europe
German Production Falls as Higher Energy Prices Hit Manufacturing | W

China
In China, a European executive becomes an increasingly rare critical voice | R

Geopolitics & trade
Biden Warns of Growing Nuclear Risk as Ukraine Slams Russia for Drone Use | W
U.S. buys radiation sickness drug as part of long-standing program | R
U.S. aims to hobble China’s chip industry with sweeping new export rules | R
U.S. Restricts Semiconductor Exports in Bid to Slow China’s Military Advance | W

Industries & companies
Autos: New cars are finally back in stock, but they come at a steep price | C
Autos: Tesla stock had its worst week since March 2020 amid wild week for Musk | C
Autos: Rivian Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles | W
Retail: Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale 2022: Here are the best deals | C
Media: You Hated Your Cable Package. Your Streaming Services Are Bringing It Back. | W
Pharma: FDA clears whooping cough vaccine for use during pregnancy to protect newborns | C

Beyond markets
Covid vaccines prevented at least 330,000 deaths among U.S. seniors in 2021 | C
New York City Declares Emergency Over Migrant Influx | W

wiar 10-07-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 07 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: 

On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 3.

Markets
Wall Street closes lower as the Fed pounds rate hike drum | R
Stocks close lower as investors await September jobs report, Dow drops nearly 350 points | C
Why Wall Street shouldn’t sweat the midterms | CNN
U.K. Bond Markets Come Under Pressure Again | W

Central banks
Fed Official Says Inflation Is ‘Stubbornly Persistent,’ Justifying Rapid Rate Rises | W
The Fed Wants to Quash Inflation. But Can It Do It More Gently? | N
The Fed Has to Stay the Course Against Inflation | W

Energy
Britain could face three-hour power cuts this winter, National Grid warns | R
Column: Third European smelter closure compounds zinc conundrum | R
Biden Weighs Options After OPEC+ Moves to Cut Oil Output | W
Shell Braces for Profit Hit From Volatile Natural-Gas Prices, Rising Costs | W
Column: Outsized OPEC+ output cut raises global risks | R

Global
IMF to Lower Global 2023 Growth Forecast Amid Shocks to Economy | W

US
Column: Earnings squeeze heralds winter freeze on Wall Street | R
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again, Pressuring Consumers | W
Conagra Says Food Inflation Shows Signs of Moderating | W
‘Hiring Has Never Been Harder!’ | W
Biden pardons thousands of people convicted of marijuana possession, orders review of federal pot law | C
Hunter Biden case: Feds believe evidence supports tax and gun charges | C

Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: How this popular Jeff Bezos quote drives Amazon’s climate goals | C
Media: How YouTube Created the Attention Economy | The New Yorker

Corporate finance
Twitter, Elon Musk Talks Continue, Focus on Financing, Litigation | W

Beyond markets
Ebola: U.S. will screen people arriving at airports from Uganda | C
COVID wave looms in Europe as booster campaign makes slow start | R

wiar 10-06-22

MFwebsite2020researchWhat I Am Reading

October 06 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 3.

Markets
Stocks Close Lower After Two-Day Rally | W
Traders Pile Into Boom-or-Bust Options to Play Stock Market Volatility | W

Currencies & commodities
A Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc on Emerging Markets. A Debt Crisis Could Be Next. | N
What a Strong U.S. Dollar Means for Investors | Morningstar
OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cuts, Biden calls it shortsighted | R

Central banks
Fed’s Rate Increases Defy All the Rules | W
Fed’s Bostic says inflation fight “still in early days” | R

Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine recovers more territory in region Russia claims to have annexed | R
U.S. Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil | W
North Korea fires a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan | C

Industries & companies
Autos: Ford ups starting price of electric F-150 Lightning pickup to $51,974 | C
Retail: How Macy’s Has Avoided—So Far—the Inventory Pileup Plaguing Other Apparel Chains | W

Corporate finance
Elon Musk and Twitter Discussed Price Cut to $44 Billion Takeover in Recent Weeks | W

Beyond markets
Colleges struggle with enrollment declines, underfunding post-Covid | C