November 09 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Political Cycles, Earnings Estimates & Fiscal Fatigue
The stock market historically has performed well after midterm elections and during third years of presidential cycles, but none of these positive political cyclical trends will make much difference if inflation remains elevated, which would force the Fed to cause a hard landing of the economy. … Also: Analysts’ earnings estimates are falling mostly because their expectations for margins are falling. We review the relevant data for the S&P 500 sectors. … And: How fiscal policy has contributed to the deficit and inflation.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 7.
Markets
Investors face unclear outcome in midterms, with questions over spending, regulation | R
Oil prices fall 2.5% on U.S. inventory build, China COVID worries | R
Central banks
Some Investors Bet Fed Could Lift Rates to Two-Decade High | W
US
Republican ‘red wave’ turns into a ripple, Georgia Senate headed to runoff | R
Midterm Election Could Make Democrats Latest Governing Party to Pay Price for Inflation | W
Midterm election results: Trump candidates disappoint on Election Day | C
We’re using 1960s guidance to measure poverty in 2022 | The Hill
Maxwell Frost will be the first Gen Z member of Congress | C
Europe
Europe Doubles Down on Big Government | W
Europe’s retailers strive to keep prices low to win struggling shoppers | R
Japan
Japanese Companies Are Making Less but Profiting More Thanks to Weak Yen | W
China
China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy | W
China’s Business Elite See the Country That Let Them Thrive Slipping Away | N
Geopolitics & trade
Treasury Chief Janet Yellen Heads to India as U.S. Seeks to Deepen Ties | W
Industries & companies
Communications Services: Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter | C
Media: Elon Musk’s Twitter is a case study of how not to lay people off | Vox
Media: Elon Musk took over a struggling Twitter and has quickly made it worse | C
Climate
US launches carbon offset program to help developing countries | C
China Resists Climate Pressure From West, but Makes Gains on Its Own | W