Dr. Ed's Blog

December 28 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
What’s Ahead—and 3 Stocks to Watch—for Every S&P 500 Sector | BR
Negative-Yielding Bonds Could Be Approaching Their Final Days | W

Energy
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe collapse to a post-Soviet low | R
Why natural gas plays a key role in the clean energy transition | The Hill
Opinion | This Year Was the Beginning of a Green Transition | N

US
Inflation Takes Biggest Bite From Middle-Income Households | W
U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November | C

China
China’s Censors End Crackdown on Covid-Policy Criticism—of a Certain Kind | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia’s War Has United Europe, but Highlights Bloc’s Dependence on U.S. | W
Putin attempts to undermine oil price cap as global energy markets fracture | C
South Korea must respond to N.Korea despite its nuclear arms – Yoon | R

Industries & companies
Autos: Top 2022 auto stocks: Ferrari outshines EV makers like Tesla | C
Airlines: Southwest cancels more flights as rival carriers cap fares for stranded flyers | C
Airlines: Southwest flight upheaval a ‘system failure,’ U.S. says | R
Airlines: Flight cancellations: Why Southwest Airlines is melting down | CNN Business
Media: ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ makes $1 billion in 14 days | C

Covid
U.S. to impose mandatory COVID-19 tests for travelers from China | R
U.S. records 100 million Covid cases, but more than 200 million Americans have probably had it | C

December 27 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
After Muni-Bond ‘Bloodbath,’ Expectations for 2023 Are Muted | W

US
U.S. retail sales grows 7.6% in holiday season -Mastercard data | R
Home Prices Fell in October for Fourth Straight Month | W
Baking Supplies Cost a Lot More This Year. So Did Flying. But That Flat-Screen TV Got Cheaper. | W

Europe
European Luxury Shares Rise on Easing of Chinese Border Restrictions | W
 
China
Does Zero Covid’s End Mean China Is Running Out of Money? | W
With ‘Zero Covid,’ China Proved It’s Good at Control. Governance Is Harder. | N
China’s COVID cases overwhelm hospitals | R
China Cities’ Covid Estimates Suggest Infections May Peak in January | B
Chinese make travel plans as Beijing dismantles zero-COVID rules | R
China Covid: Lemons, peaches and TCM bought as protection from virus | C
Wealthy Chinese, Fed Up at Home, Find a Haven in Japan | W
 
Japan
Japanese Companies Reach Natural-Gas Deals With Oman, U.S. | W

India
India’s Upscale Housing Market Strengthens, Defying Global Trend | W

Geopolitics & trade
China-US Diplomatic Relations: Chinese Plan to Improve Ties | B
Taiwan reports China’s largest incursion yet to air defence zone | R
The new geopolitical epoch | E

Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest cancels 70% of flights as travel disruptions ease elsewhere | C
Airlines: Southwest Airlines CEO Says More Cancellations Ahead as Airline Tries to Recover | W
Autos: Why 2023 could be another difficult year for the auto industry | C
Autos: Auto-Loan Interest Rates Are Skyrocketing. No One Told Credit Unions. | W
Tech: IBM stock outperformed technology sector in 2022 | C
Tech: Chip Inventories Swell as Consumers Buy Fewer Gadgets | W
Tech: Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs | W

Crypto
This little-known firm with a weird website was central to the misappropriation of FTX customers’ money, regulators say | C

Technology
Robots Are Replacing Workers Lost in the Pandemic. Why They’re Here to Stay. | BR

December 23 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
S&P 500 Facing a Historical Warning Sign After This Year’s Slump | B

Central banks
Japan Inflation Hits Four-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank in 2023 | W
How the Federal Reserve affected 2022’s stock market | C
Opinion | Larry Summers: what to do next on inflation | WP

Energy
Russia says it may cut oil output up to 7% over price cap | R
Column: Key coal import hubs in China perk up as economy reboots | R

US I
Why America’s economy remains surprisingly strong — but you don’t realize it | NN
Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023 | C
U.S. Household Spending Rose Sightly in November as Inflation Eased | W
U.S. Population Growth Remains Sluggish Despite Uptick This Year | W
Low weekly jobless claims underscore U.S. labor market tightness; Q3 growth revised up | R
U.S. Home Sales Post Record 10th Straight Month of Declines | W
Biden must take on the cost of rent next — and urge Congress to act | The Hill
CarMax results hit by ‘used-vehicle recession’; buyback paused | R

US II
Egg Prices Surge to Records as Bird Flu Hits Poultry Flocks | W
Senate passes government funding bill, teeing up House vote | C
$52 billion plan to save New York’s low-lying areas from sea flooding | C
Winter weather: Biden urges Americans to travel early with a massive blizzard slated to hit the U.S. | C

China I
Opinion | China’s Future Isn’t What It Used to Be | N
China Covid News: Soaring Cases Push Economic Activity Off A Cliff | B
China Covid Cases Surge Infecting 37 Million People a Day, According to Estimate | B
China’s Covid Outbreak Could Spark Dangerous New Variant That Infects the World | B
Shanghai hospital warns of ‘tragic battle’ as COVID spreads | R
Opinion | In China, ‘Zero Covid’ Is Gone, but the Trauma Lingers | N
Sour U.S.-China Relations Feed the Fentanyl Crisis | W
Xi’s Support for Big Tech Is About More Than Covid | B

Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: US says Russia’s Wagner Group bought North Korean weapons for Ukraine war | R
Europe Is Rushing Arms to Ukraine but Running Out of Ammo | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: Winter storm Elliott: Airlines cancel flights before Christmas | C
Autos: Tesla stock slides on demand concerns, Elon Musk Twitter distraction | C

Beyond markets
Covid, flu, RSV: Tripledemic means masking up again, says virus expert | C
Schools Prepare for Rise in Flu, Covid-19 Cases Tied to Holiday Break | W
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to be released on $250 million bail, will live with his parents | C

December 21 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
Dow Edges Higher After Surprise Bank of Japan Adjustment | W
Column: Commodity forecasts are absurd, but China is key as Ukraine fades | R
Bill Gross says markets are headed for ‘potential chaos’ if interest rates keep going up | C

Central banks
Bank of Japan Lets a Benchmark Rate Rise, Causing Yen to Surge | W
Japan to revise statement with central bank to water down price target, Kyodo reports | R
Fed zooms in on American paychecks as it takes inflation battle into 2023 | B

Energy
Gazprom: gas supplied in full, bypassing damaged Russian export pipeline | R
Porsche starts production of e-fuel that could provide gas alternative | C

US
Higher mortgage rates depress U.S. single-family housing starts, building permits | R
Lawmakers Boost Military, Domestic Spending in $1.65 Trillion Omnibus Bill | W
‘Secure 2.0’ on track to usher in changes to the retirement system | C

China
China population: with 2022 set to be a turning point, what’s next as economy, coronavirus take toll? | SCMP
China’s sudden ‘reopening’ reveals new economic challenges | C

Geopolitics & trade
Opinion | The U.S. Needs to Change the Way It Does Business With China | N
 
Industries & companies
Media: Marvel sequels are most anticipated movies of 2023: Fandango survey | C
Pharma: Many Hospitals Get Big Drug Discounts. That Doesn’t Mean Markdowns for Patients. | W

Beyond markets
JFK taxi dispatch system hacked, New York men arrested for conspiracy | C

December 20 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
What’s Ahead for the Stock Market in 2023? Our Strategists Weigh In. | BR
Stock Picking Makes a Comeback in Market Turbulence | W

Central banks
The Bank of Japan shocks investors | E
Bank of Japan shocks global markets with bond yield shift | C
Bank of Japan Lets a Benchmark Rate Rise, Causing Yen to Surge | W
Japan Bends to Global Forces Pushing Up Interest Rates | W
Treasury Rally to Be Tested by Fed’s Next Move | W

Energy
Why the Gulf’s oil powers are betting on clean energy | E
U.S. Scores $4 Billion Windfall on Oil-Reserve Sales | W

US
2023 Could Bring Rolling Recessions and a Glimmer of Hope for Financial Markets | BR
The man behind Trump World’s myth of rigged voting machines | R
Congress releases spending bill with election reforms to prevent another Jan. 6 | C

China
China’s covid wave could kill as many as 1.5m people | E
Two health experts say China’s haste to re-open risks needless death and disruption | E
The world fears a new China COVID wave, ponders how to help Xi | R
 
Emerging
Emerging Markets Haven’t Seen a Bull Run in a Decade. Why There’s Hope for 2023. | BR

Geopolitics & trade
Japan’s Weapons Buildup to Bolster U.S. Efforts to Counter China | W
A looming Russian offensive | E
Analysis: Russia’s grim battle for Bakhmut may yield pyrrhic victory at best | R
 
Industries & companies
Autos: Why More EV Makers Aren’t Making Cars at All | BR
Autos: Auto execs less confident in EV adoption amid economic fears: KPMG | C
Chemicals: 3M to Stop Making, Discontinue Use of ‘Forever Chemicals’ | W
Financials: Wells Fargo Reaches $3.7 Billion Deal With Regulators Over Consumer Banking | W
Retail: Target under pressure, hopes value-hungry shoppers come to the rescue | C
Tech: Apple will reportedly begin producing some MacBooks in Vietnam in 2023 | C

Corporate finance
Oatly, Other Deflated IPO Stocks Haunt New-Issue Market | W

December 17 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
Dow closes more than 200 points lower, falls for second straight week | C
Forget Stock Predictions for Next Year. Focus on the Next Decade. | N

Global
Price Pressures Ease in U.S. and Europe, Businesses Say | W

Central banks
Italian economy minister says ECB rates hikes worrying for Rome | R

Energy
Breakneck LNG build-out shows Germany can move fast, Scholz says | R
Bill Gates-backed nuclear demonstration delayed by at least 2 years | C

US
Americans Expect Worsening U.S. Economy in 2023, WSJ Poll Finds | W
Why This Housing Downturn Isn’t Like the Last One | W

China
New Covid model predicts over 1 million deaths in China through 2023 | C
In COVID-hit Beijing, funeral homes and crematoriums are busy | R

Europe
EU Greenlights 15% Corporate Minimum Tax, Advancing Global Deal | W
Italy urges EU to give strong and strategic response to U.S. IRA | R

Geopolitics & trade
Putin’s New Strategy: Laying Claim to Traditional Values | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup gets another price hike | C
Financials: Goldman Sachs is planning to cut up to 8% of its employees in January | C
Media: ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ makes $17 million in Thursday previews | C

December 16 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
Dow Falls More Than 700 Points on Interest-Rate Expectations | W
Stock Market Traders Discover That Bad News Is Bad After All | B
The Markets Don’t Believe the Fed | W

Energy
Keystone pipeline break spilled diluted bitumen, complicating cleanup | R
Column: China boosted crude oil storage even as refiners processed more | R
California lowers solar energy incentives for homeowners | C
 
Central banks
How rules-based Fed policy can reduce recession risk and fight inflation | The Hill
How the Federal Reserve flawlessly curbed inflation in the ’90s – Vox

US
Retail Sales, Manufacturing Declines Point to Slowing Economy | W
Home flipping profits drop at fastest pace in over a decade | C
Senate Passes $858 Billion Defense-Policy Bill | W
Trump vows free speech reform of government, universities, tech | C

Europe
Is Europe’s Energy Crisis Actually A Boon? | OilPrice.com
EU Greenlights 15% Corporate Minimum Tax, Advancing Global Deal | W

Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Regulator Says It Has Access to Audit Papers of Chinese Companies | W
U.S. slaps restrictions on Chinese chipmaker, other companies over national security | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: The Bleisure Traveler—Coming to the Rescue of Airlines Everywhere | W
Healthcare: How a Sprawling Hospital Chain Ignited Its Own Staffing Crisis | N

Crypto
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Parents Under Scrutiny in FTX Collapse | N
Binance CEO brushes off $2.1 billion FTX clawback concerns | C

Beyond markets
Covid news: Most nursing home residents have not received omicron booster | C

December 15 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
Chinese firms avert delisting risk as U.S. watchdog gets ‘full access’ in audit inspections | R

Central banks
Jerome Powell’s Grim Inflation Outlook Is at Odds With Markets | W
Fed Raises Rate by 0.5 Percentage Point, Signals More Increases Likely | W
ECB slows rate hikes, says inflation fight must go on | R
ECB hikes rates, sees significant increases ahead as it announces plan to shrink balance sheet | C

Energy
Germany’s half-a-trillion dollar energy bazooka may not be enough | R
Aramco and TotalEnergies to build $11 bln Saudi petrochemicals plant | R

US
Retail sales November 2022: Sales fall 0.6% as consumers feel pressure from inflation | C
U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in 11 months; labor market tight | R

China
China’s Leaders Plot Pivot Back Toward Boosting Economy | W

Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines frequent flyer reward changes make it harder to earn | C

Crypto
Binance CEO brushes off $2.1 billion FTX clawback concerns | C

December 14 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Disinflation?
Inflation peaked in June and continued to moderate in November. The Santa Claus rally should continue unless the Fed’s Grinches get in the way. …. Small business owners still facing labor shortages and raising wages and prices. …. S&P 500 forward revenues, earnings, and margins losing their mojo. And: What if home prices don’t fall much?
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
Stocks close higher on cooler inflation report, notch second day of gains | C
Unpredictable 10-Year Treasury Yield Poses Puzzle for Investors, Fed | W

Central banks
Fed rate hike expected to be half a percentage point as central bank fights inflation | C
Slowing Inflation Could Intensify Fed Debate Over When to Stop Raising Rates | W

US
U.S. Inflation Eased in November, CPI Report Shows | W
Prices for Used Cars, Plane Tickets and Electricity Eased in November | W
Mortgage rates drop after CPI inflation report | C
Unhappy New Year: CBO Forecasts Poor Economy, Soaring Deficits in 2023 | The Heritage Foundation
Too Much Gloom and Doom? by Willem H. Buiter | PS

Europe
Europe Strikes Deal to Tax Imports Based on Greenhouse-Gas Emissions | W
Europe’s Energy Ministers Fail to Agree on Plan for Natural-Gas Price Curb | W

Geopolitics & trade
The supply chain that keeps tech flowing to Russia | R
Two Americans and five Russians charged with running a smuggling network to obtain military technology and ammunition for Russia | C

Industries & companies
Pharma: Moderna’s mRNA Cancer Vaccine Shows Promise in Preliminary Study | W
 
Technology
Nuclear fusion breakthrough: More power than used to create reaction | C
ChatGPT is a new AI chatbot that can answer questions and write essays | C

Crypto
Exclusive: How a secret software change allowed FTX to use client money | R
FTX executives spent $256 million on Bahamas real estate | C
 
Beyond markets
Opinion | The Great Delusion Behind Twitter | N

December 13 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Bubble in Everything Has Burst. Now What?
The bubble in everything has burst without dire consequences so far. Surprisingly, it has been a relatively smooth transition back to the Old Normal from the New Normal. Among the biggest bubbles to pop was in the bond market. The cryptocurrency calamity hasn’t turned into a contagion. The SPAC debacle has also been contained. There is still some air in the stock market bubble, but less than there was at the beginning of the year. Home prices may get supported by a shortage of inventory.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
10-year Treasury yield drops below 3.5% after inflation reading comes in lighter than expected | C
Copper prices — traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next year | C

Central banks
Interest-Rate Paths for U.S., Europe Set to Diverge | W

US
CPI Report Shows U.S. Inflation Eased in November | W
CPI inflation November 2022: Prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago | C
Supply-Chain Shortfalls Targeted by New Bill | W
Four-day workweek: How shortening the week could change office life | C

Europe
Europe Strikes Deal to Tax Imports Based on Greenhouse-Gas Emissions | W
Energy crisis: EU works on gas cap and contingency measures for next winter | C

China
China’s Zero-Covid Policy Is Ending, but Not Everyone Is Celebrating | W
China reportedly delays key economic meeting amid signs of surging infections | R

Geopolitics & trade
China brings WTO case against U.S. chip export restrictions | C
 
Industries & companies
Airlines: United Airlines places Boeing order for 100 Dreamliners | C
Pharma: Moderna’s mRNA Cancer Vaccine Shows Promise in Preliminary Study | W

Climate
Explainer: Could fusion energy help fight climate change? | R

Crypto
Sam Bankman-Fried ran FTX as fraud ‘from the start,’ SEC charges | C