Dr. Ed's Blog

January 11 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings Bottoming?
Might the worst be over for corporate earnings? The earnings recession in some industries likely continued during Q4, with economically sensitive ones the worst hit. But Q4 may mark the bottom for earnings growth, as we don’t see a broad-based recession this year. … In yesterday’s Morning Briefing, we likened Fed Chair Powell’s bond-market conundrum to his predecessor Greenspan’s. But does Powell have a lever to hike bond yields that Greenspan didn’t? Perhaps, but pulling it is no option. … Consumers aren’t tapped out yet: Their revolving debt as a percent of income is only around pre-pandemic levels. … And: The labor market remains unbalanced.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 9.

Markets
European Stocks Are Outshining U.S. Peers | W

Central banks
Powell says Fed might make unpopular decisions to stabilize prices | C
Powell reiterates Fed is not going to become a ‘climate policymaker’ | C

US
Consumer confidence in housing rises as prices fall | C
What to Know About Biden’s Student Loan Repayment Proposal | N
As Infrastructure Money Lands, the Job Dividends Begin | N

Geopolitics & trade
Japan lodges protest to China over visa suspension | R

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing orders jump but trail Airbus for 4th straight year as China lags | R
Autos: Tesla plans to spend more than $770 million on Texas factory expansion | C
Financials: Bank Earnings to Put U.S. Economy Under Microscope | W
Financials: Wells Fargo to shrink mortgage business, exit correspondent lending | R
Media: Disney makes it easier for loyal customers to visit theme parks | C
Media: Disney Revises Pricing Policies at Its Parks | N
Pharma: FDA Commissioner Denies Wrongdoing in Approval Process for Biogen Alzheimer’s Drug Aduhelm | W

Covid
WHO urges travelers to wear masks as new COVID variant spreads | R
Chinese bank tries to entice wealthy customers with mRNA vaccines | yahoo.com

January 10 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell’s Conundrum
US bond markets haven’t responded as expected to the Fed’s warnings not to expect the federal funds rate to be lowered this year. Bond investors seem unfazed by this, which is fazing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He’s been fretting that easy financial conditions aren’t what the Fed needs to see at this time of tightening by the Fed. It’s all reminiscent of “Greenspan’s conundrum” during the early 2000s. The bond market then too seemed unaffected by the Fed’s tightening. This time, Fed officials have turned more hawkish because investors aren’t listening to their warnings. Perhaps, Fed officials should listen to the bond market.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 9.

Markets
Stock sentiment is positive despite lousy headlines | CNN
Wall St rises as Fed’s Powell steers clear of monetary policy outlook | R
European Stocks Are Outshining U.S. Peers | W
Oil and Gas Are Back and Booming | W

Central banks
Powell says Fed might make unpopular decisions to stabilize prices | C
Transcript: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly at WSJ Live Q&A Event | W
Fed’s Bowman says there’s ‘a lot more work to do’ to bring down inflation | C

Global
World Bank Cuts 2023 Global Growth Projection as Inflation Persists | W

US
Biden administration student loan plan could cut some payments in half | C
Opinion | FTC Chair Lina Khan on the Problems with Noncompetes | N

Europe
France’s government outlines plans to raise retirement age despite years of pushback | C

China
China suspends issuing visas in Japan and South Korea | R

Japan
How Japan Kept Inflation Rates Low | W

Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Coke, PepsiCo Are Target of Probe by Federal Trade Commission | W

Climate
Video: The Expensive And Harmful Truth About Electric Vehicles | YouTube (Forbes)

January 09 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Good Start
We still see greater odds that the economy will glide to a soft landing (60%) than plummet to a hard one (40%), which nearly everyone else expects. What might a soft landing look like? The happiest—and most contrary—of scenarios would be a return of the “Old Normal,” which actually wouldn’t entail a landing at all: real GDP growth of at least 2.0%, moderating inflation, and not much more monetary tightening. … We expect this week’s market-moving news to be mostly reassuring, with a subdued CPI release and earnings reports that don’t disappoint. … Recent news has cut both ways—a concerning NM-PMI but auspicious capital-spending signs. … Movie review: “Tár” (+).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 3.

Markets
Wall Street Sets Low Bar for Corporate Earnings Season | W
Stock Funds Posted a Strong Fourth Quarter, Closing Out a Tough 2022 | BR

Central banks
Fed faces ‘difficult’ call to avoid overdoing rates shock, Romer says | R

Energy
Warm Winter Helps Europe Overcome the Worst of Russia’s Energy Squeeze | B

US
As White-Collar Layoffs Rise, Blue-Collar Resilience Faces Test in 2023 | W
Lawmakers Earmark More Than $15 Billion in Spending Bill | N
House Republicans Turn Focus to Spending, China After Dramatic Speaker Vote | W
Republican representatives say they are not worried McCarthy conceded too much | C
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy pledges to tackle immigration, ‘woke’ education policies and IRS funding | C
Upward Mobility Is Alive and Well in America | W
Lower wage growth aids U.S. inflation fight | R

Europe
Why the gusty North Sea could give Europe an industrial edge | E

China
China Reopens to the World as International Travel Restrictions End | W
China is overwhelmed, yet an even bigger covid wave may be coming | E
How China’s reopening will disrupt the world economy | E
China reopens borders in final farewell to zero-COVID | R

Geopolitics & trade
Germany Detains Iranian Suspected of Planning Chemical Attack | W
Sweden Can’t Meet Turkey’s Demands on NATO Expansion, Prime Minister Says | W
A realistic path to a better relationship between Britain and the EU | E
 
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline perks and elite status will be harder to earn this year | C
Autos: Developing Nations Aren’t Ready for EVs—Unless They Are Made in China | W
Pharma: It’s Pharma Time: Why Merck and Lilly Stock Are Buys, but not Pfizer. | BR
Tech: Tech Industry Reversal Intensifies With New Rounds of Layoffs | W
Tech: Tech’s Bill Is Coming Due. Investors Aren’t the Only Ones Who Will Pay. | BR

Technology
China, a Pioneer in Regulating Algorithms, Turns Its Focus to Deepfakes | W
Check out BMW’s new color-changing concept car, the i Vision Dee | C

Corporate finance
Bed Bath & Beyond Looks Drained | BR

Climate
California’s Torrential Rains Don’t Mean the Drought Is Over | W
Hundreds of thousands left without power in California as forecasters warn of ‘relentless’ cyclones | C

January 07 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Staples & Drones
Covid is ravaging China after the government suddenly abandoned its zero-Covid policy, leaving an under-exposed and under-vaccinated population vulnerable. Jackie reports on the tragic fallout. … The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector was a top-performer last year, as investors viewed it as a relative safe haven. That might not remain the case given Consumer Staples’ current valuation; its forward P/E actually rose over the past two years. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies focus this week is on the drones that are starting to dot the sky and how they’ll be reshaping retailing, shipping, and war.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 3.

Markets
Dow Closes 700 Points Higher On Signs of Slowing Wage Growth | W
Stocks stage first big rally of 2023 as hope grows that inflation will ease, Dow closes up 700 points | C
Signs of Seller Exhaustion Left Stocks Primed for a Big Bounce | B

Global
Secular Stagnation, Not Secular Stagflation by Willem H. Buiter – Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org)

Central banks
Strong Jobs Report Doesn’t Resolve Fed Debate on Next Rate Rise | W
Fed’s Barkin and George Say Inflation Fight Isn’t Over Despite Promising Signs | W
Raphael Bostic says Fed needs to ‘stay the course’ despite lower wage gains | C
Fed Official Says Inflation Remains Too High | W

US I
Hiring, Wage Gains Eased in December, Pointing to a Cooling Labor Market in 2023 | W
U.S. jobs report breathes life into Fed’s ‘soft landing’ scenario | R
December’s jobs report fuels optimism that the economy could still pull off a soft landing | C
U.S. labor market powers ahead, but wage growth loses steam | R
Here’s where the jobs are for December 2022 — in one chart | C

US II
December Jobs Report Offers Good News: Easing Wage Pressures, Healthy Economy | Morningstar
Egg Price Relief Coming as US Demand Softens in Wake of Shortage | B
What the Federal Trade Commission’s move to ban noncompetes could mean for the US workforce – Vox
And Just Like That, America Becomes More Rural | W

Europe
Sliding Natural-Gas Prices Deal Surprise Reprieve to Europe | W
Warmer Weather Helps Ease Europe’s War-Driven Inflation Surge | W

China
China’s Deep-Pocketed Tourists Are Staying Home, For Now | B

Geopolitics & trade
Russia Ukraine war: U.S. announces aid to Ukraine, European allies | C

Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon ‘fully committed’ to Alexa despite layoffs, hardware chief says | C
Pharma: FDA approves Alzheimer’s drug that slowed cognitive decline in clinical trial | C
Retail: Macy’s warns holiday-quarter sales will come in light | C

Corporate finance
Party City (PRTY) Nears Bankruptcy That Could Hand Reins to Creditors | B

Covid
New Covid-19 Subvariant, XBB.1.5, Takes Over in Parts of U.S. | W
Exclusive: China in talks with Pfizer for generic COVID drug | R
China’s New mRNA Covid Vaccine Targeting Omicron Starts Trial Production | W
Opinion | America’s Covid Test Requirement For Chinese Is a Farce | N

January 06 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Staples & Drones
Covid is ravaging China after the government suddenly abandoned its zero-Covid policy, leaving an under-exposed and under-vaccinated population vulnerable. Jackie reports on the tragic fallout. … The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector was a top-performer last year, as investors viewed it as a relative safe haven. That might not remain the case given Consumer Staples’ current valuation; its forward P/E actually rose over the past two years. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies focus this week is on the drones that are starting to dot the sky and how they’ll be reshaping retailing, shipping, and war.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 3.

Markets
Stocks Slide After Data Points to Strong Labor Market | W
Traders who bet against stocks made a killing in 2022, as short sellers netted $300 billion | C

Energy
Column: Oil price flip highlights Fed’s inflation base effect jam | R

US
Can the US Dodge a Recession? This Economist Thinks So | B
Job growth expected to have cooled in December but not enough to slow Fed rate hikes | C
Here’s how much top tech jobs in California pay, according to job ads | C
Column: U.S. manufacturing downturn will cut diesel consumption | R
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply in November as Global Demand Cooled | W
U.S. House speaker vote: House adjourns after McCarthy loses 11th ballot | C
House speaker election: Here’s how the debacle is paralyzing the U.S. Congress | C

China
China Resumes Residential Property Development Funds in Further Support | B

Japan
Japan’s real wages fall at fastest pace in over 8 years in November, undercut by inflation | R

Geopolitics & trade
China’s new Covid surge is crippling the world’s most important factories and biggest ports | C
How a Texas Border City Is Shaping the Future of Global Trade | N
With few entry tests, Southeast Asia may gain most from China’s travel revival | R
U.S. warship sails through sensitive Taiwan Strait; China angered | R

Industries & companies
Autos: Ram previews new electric pickup to rival Ford, Rivian | C
Airlines: U.S. Senate Commerce chair plans hearings after Southwest Airlines meltdown | C
Fitness: Peloton to Pay $19 Million Fine Over Treadmill Recall | W
Media: Netflix, HBO, and Disney profits show the streaming boom is over | Vox
Retail: Bed Bath & Beyond warns of potential bankruptcy | C
Tech: Major tech shift head: BofA’s Rick Sherlund predicts software comeback | C

Crypto
Who is Alex Mashinsky, the man behind the alleged Celsius crypto fraud? | R
Crypto lender Genesis Trading lays off 30% of workforce | C

January 05 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Staples & Drones
Covid is ravaging China after the government suddenly abandoned its zero-Covid policy, leaving an under-exposed and under-vaccinated population vulnerable. Jackie reports on the tragic fallout. … The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector was a top-performer last year, as investors viewed it as a relative safe haven. That might not remain the case given Consumer Staples’ current valuation; its forward P/E actually rose over the past two years. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies focus this week is on the drones that are starting to dot the sky and how they’ll be reshaping retailing, shipping, and war.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 3.

Markets
S&P closes higher after Fed minutes confirm inflation focus | R
The Method in the Markets’ Madness | The Atlantic

Central banks
Fed officials see higher rates for ‘some time’ ahead | C
Fed wants ‘flexibility’ on rates as inflation remains key focus, minutes show | R
Fed Minutes Show Officials Feared Markets’ Optimism Could Complicate Inflation Fight | W
Fed’s Kashkari Sees Rates Rising to 5.4% | W

Energy
Column: Europe’s gas prices slump to moderate storage build: Kemp | R

US
Job Openings Held Nearly Steady in November, Showing Still-Strong Labor Demand | W
Tax cuts and trust industries are turning US states into tax havens | Vox
Manhattan apartment sales plunge in Q4, brokers fear frozen market | C

Europe
‘Feels like summer’: Warm winter breaks temperature records in Europe | R
Snowless slopes spoil holiday skiing in Switzerland | R

Industries & companies
Autos: U.S. Auto Sales Stumble Toward Worst Annual Results in Over a Decade | W
Autos: Share of car buyers with monthly payments over $1,000 hits record high | C

Covid
Why Xi Jinping Reversed His Zero-Covid Policy in China | W
Covid news: Omicron XBB.1.5 is most transmissible subvariant, WHO says | C

NFTs
Fanatics is divesting its 60% stake in NFT company Candy Digital | C

January 04 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: All About Central Banks
Bears warning that the worst is yet to come for financial assets and the economy emphasize the effects on asset prices of central banks’ recent tightening policy moves, in the US and around the world. Yes, the unconventionally easy monetary policy that greased financial markets for more than a decade is over, but quite a bit of the tightening that has replaced it has been discounted by financial markets already. Moreover, most asset bubbles have burst already without much collateral damage. And the US markets continue to benefit from record foreign capital inflows. … Also: Melissa recaps recent monetary policy developments in Europe, Japan, and China.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 3.

Markets
Stocks close lower on first trading day of 2023, hurt by slumping Apple, Tesla | C

Energy
European Gas Falls To Lowest Level Since Before War in Ukraine | B
Saudi Crown Prince Tangles With Sovereign Wealth Fund Over How to Invest Oil Riches | W
Exxon, Chevron Focus on Oil Projects in the Americas | W

US
Recession? What Recession? Pass Me Some Grapes. | N
A simple question: What do we get for $1.7 trillion? | The Hill
Home price gains weakened sharply in November | C
More Bosses Order Workers Back to the Office as Job Market Shifts | W
Tech Layoffs Are Happening Faster Than at Any Time During the Pandemic | W

Geopolitics & trade
Supply chain managers wary of shifting trade back to West Coast ports | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest Airlines Offers 25,000 Points to Passengers Hit by Travel Meltdown | W
Autos: Ford F-Series 2022 sales show pickup continued decades-long dominance | C
Communications Services: Internet providers warn against EU plans to make Big Tech cover telcos costs | R

Covid
70% of Shanghai population infected with COVID, doctor fears | P
EU Set to Impose Coordinated Controls on Travelers From China | W

Crypto
Regulators warn U.S. banks on crypto risks including ‘fraud and scams’ | C
Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to fraud charges in New York | C

January 03 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Recession in 2023: 60/40 or 40/60?
With last year thankfully behind us, we take stock of what could go both wrong and right for the economy in 2023. We’re optimistic that 2023 will be better than 2022 for several reasons, but that’s a contrarian viewpoint. We maintain our 60% subjective odds that the economy will achieve a soft landing in 2023 and 40% odds that it will land hard, with a broad-based recession and no bull market resuming for stocks. Much depends on what happens with Fed policy and inflation. … Dr. Ed reviews “Causeway” (+).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
Stocks Have Their Worst Year Since 2008 | N
Investors Brace for More Market Tumult as Interest Rates Keep Rising | W

US
Get Ready for the Richcession | W
Stay for Pay? Companies Offer Big Raises to Retain Workers | W
A Perk to Getting These Jobs: You Pick Your Pay | W
Future Consumption Will Make the Prosperous Present Seem Deprived by Comparison | FO

Europe
European shares start 2023 on upbeat note on encouraging factory data | C
European Gas Falls To Lowest Level Since Before War in Ukraine | B
Tourism and Manufacturing Fight for the Future of Power in Europe | W

China
Chinese Health Official Raises Covid Alarm Ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday | W
China Covid Strategy Was ‘Optimized’ to Protect Lives, Xin Jinping Says | B

Geopolitics & trade
Signs Yevgeny Prigozhin is ‘worse than Putin’ and could be Russia’s next leader | P
Russia freezes Linde assets worth $488 mln | R
Banning TikTok is not a good use of Biden or Republican time | MSNBC
 
Industries & companies
Airlines: Flying blind: The problem isn’t flight cancellations — It’s flying! | The Hill
Autos: Tesla TSLA Q4 2022 vehicle delivery and production numbers | C
Financials: Big Banks Predict Recession, Fed Pivot in 2023 | W
Retail: Retailers brace for tougher times and more frugal customers in 2023 | C

Technology
Companies can ‘hire’ a virtual person for about $14k a year in China | C

Crypto
How Sam Bankman-Fried ‘Madoff’ with regulators | P
The boldest bitcoin price predictions for 2023 | C

January 02 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.

Markets
The Year Big Tech Stocks Fell From Glory | W
For U.S. Stocks, 2022 Is a Year With Almost No Record Highs | W

Central banks
The year of the rate shock | E
Retiring Fed President Challenged the Consensus Inside Central Bank | W

US
Robust Job and Wage Growth Showed Signs of Cooling in Late 2022 | W
Large Pay Gains Outpace State Minimum-Wage Boosts for Many Workers | W
These states are raising their minimum wages in 2023. Chart shows where workers can expect higher pay | C
As Infrastructure Windfall Approaches, Transit Agencies Grapple With How to Spend It | W
Beware of expanding the earned income tax credit | The Hill

China
Some in China return to regular activity after COVID infections | R
Chinese Factories, Restaurants Adjust to Life Without Zero-Covid | W
China December manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar | R
China’s home prices fell at an accelerating rate in December, survey shows | C
Column: China draws in aluminum as domestic output shrinks | R
Column: Key coal import hubs in China perk up as economy reboots | R

Emerging
India’s factories ended 2022 on a strong note | R

Geopolitics & trade
Global Trade Is Shifting, Not Reversing | W
Yoon says South Korea, U.S. discussing exercises using nuclear assets | R
North Korea’s Kim orders ‘exponential’ expansion of nuke arsenal | C

Industries & companies
Autos: Shift to EVs Triggers Biggest Auto-Factory Building Boom in Decades | W
Tech: The Year Big Tech Stocks Fell From Glory | W

Crypto
What’s Behind Fidelity’s Bitcoin Plans? It May Be Fear of Missing Out. | BR
 
Covid
Highly immune evasive omicron XBB.1.5 variant is quickly becoming dominant in U.S. as it doubles weekly | C

December 29 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. ….  China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.
Yardeni Says Stock Bulls Have ‘Narrow Path’ to Victory in 2023 | B

Markets
These Are the Stocks That Kept Investors Up at Night in 2022 | B
The Great Liquidity Debate: Top Wall Street Traders Size Up the 2022 Fallout| B
An Epic Dollar Rally Goes Into Reverse—and Investors Expect Further Declines | W

Energy
Oil Market Was Splintered in 2022 by Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | W
Europe Taps Tech’s Power-Hungry Data Centers to Heat Homes | W
Here’s why the U.S. electric grid isn’t running on 100% renewable energy yet | C

US
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly But Remain Near Historic Lows | B
The second housing bubble of the 21st Century ends
Mortgage Rates in the US Rise for the First Time in Seven Weeks | B
Consumers Change Food-Delivery Habits | W
Economy Has Drinkers Choosing Prosecco Over Champagne | W
Here’s why egg prices surged in 2022. Those elevated costs could last into the first quarter of 2023, expert says | C
$1 million in retirement savings lasts longest in these 10 states—almost half are in the southeast | C

China
China’s Xi solidified grip on power during tumultuous 2022 | R
Beijing Calls for Measured, Science-Based Response to Its Covid Outbreak | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest Airlines meltdown: When ultra-efficiency is not supported by technology | The Hill
Media: 2022 was tough for media stocks like Netflix and Disney, and 2023 doesn’t look good, either | C
Retail: Retail Investors Took a Beating in 2022. Will It Continue in 2023? | B
Tech: Apple iPhone Output in China Begins to Catch Up Despite Covid-19 Issues | W
Tech: Amazon lost half its value this year as tech stocks got crushed and recession fears grew | C