Dr. Ed's Blog

February 06 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: US Economy: Still Flying & Disinflating
Last week brought plenty of affirmation for stock-market bulls, with lots of favorable data releases and a less hawkish-sounding Fed Chair Powell. The data depicted an economy that has not been landing at all but remaining quite airborne amid more signs of disinflation. … Powell said in his post-FOMC meeting presser that disinflation has a ways to go. Until inflation declines to the Fed’s target level, monetary policy will remain restrictive, he said, confirming that two more 25bps hikes in the federal funds rate are likely, followed by a pause. We review the latest disinflation readings, and Dr. Ed reviews another movie: “To Leslie” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 30.

Markets
The Stock Market Is in the Mood to Rally, Even if It Defies Logic | BR
Rallying markets suffer from a doveish illusion | E
Bonds Take Flight. But Investors Should Brace for Bumps Ahead. | BR
Optimism on Chinese stocks soars to five-year highs | C
Is there a fix for Japan’s markets mess? | E
Get Ready for a New Investment Supercycle | BR

Commodities
Oil Industry’s Windfall Fails to Excite Wall Street | W
Why the West’s oil sanctions on Russia are proving to be underwhelming | E
Gold Prices Are Gaining Ground. Here’s How to Invest. | BR
Silver Prices Are Outpacing Gold. That’s a Good Sign for the Global Economy. | BR

Central banks
Upbeat Economic Data Keep Investors on Edge About Fed | W
For the Fed, Beating Inflation Requires Bringing Wages Down, Too | BR
Super-tight policy is still struggling to control inflation | E
The Bank of Japan should stop defending its cap on bond yields | E

US
Job Numbers Keep Climbing, Sinking Chances of Rate Cuts | BR
Unemployment Falls to 3.4%, Lowest in 53 Years, Jobs Report Shows | W
Restaurant, Healthcare Jobs Led January Hiring Surge | W
States Are Flush With Cash, Which Could Soften a Possible Recession | W
The Government’s Infrastructure Binge Is Coming. Finding Stocks to Play It Is Tricky. | BR
America’s government is spending lavishly to revive manufacturing | E
Joe Biden’s effort to remake the economy is ambitious, risky—and selfish | E

Europe
Column: Europe’s gas supply stabilises after colder weather | R

China
The Pitfalls of Investing in China | BR
China is paralysing global debt-forgiveness efforts | E
Column: China’s zinc and lead exports plug Western supply gaps | R

Geopolitics & trade
China Balloon Recovery: US Launches Salvage Mission | B
Russia’s technocrats keep funds flowing for Vladimir Putin’s war | E
Putin promised not to kill Zelenskyy, former Israeli prime minister says | C

Industries & companies
Energy: Buy Linde Stock. The Industrial-Gas Giant Is Going All-In on Hydrogen. | BR
Financials: Banks Borrow Unsecured Cash at Record Clip While Deposits Flee | W
Pharma: Pfizer Is Moving Beyond Covid. Why Its Stock Is a Buy. | BR
REITs: A Housing Downturn Could Help These Rental-Focused REITs | BR
Retail: Buy Ulta Beauty Stock. It’s a Winner in Good Times and Bad. | BR

Technology
The relationship between AI and humans | E

February 03 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: All About Tech & Productivity
Robotics and artificial intelligence are transforming myriad companies in multiple industries—allowing producers and service providers alike to work more efficiently, become more agile, and make up for productivity lost through repeated hiring and training in this tight job market. Rising adoption of robotics and AI solutions over time should drive gains in corporate productivity and mitigate businesses’ labor challenges. After all, robots never sleep! Jackie reports on some of the innovative ways that companies in various industries are putting tireless robots to work.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 30.

Markets
Stock, Bond and Crypto Investors Bet Fed Is Bluffing on Interest Rates | W
S&P 500, Index Funds Outperformed by Stockpickers in 2022 | B
Column: U.S. diesel stocks start the year critically low | R
Column: Asia’s crude oil imports hit record high, but it’s not China | R
Nasdaq Surges, Powered by Tech Gains | W

Central banks
ECB Raises Interest Rate by Half Percentage Point | W
Explainer: The Fed says disinflation is welcome. What is that, exactly? | R
Fed Raises Rates and Says It Isn’t Done Yet. We Think It Is. | Morningstar
Beneath the Surface, Fed Sees No Letup in Inflation Pressure | W

US
January jobs seen slowing slightly, but impact of big layoffs unclear | C
U.S. Jobless Claims Edged Down Last Week | W
Egg Shortages Are Driving Demand for Raise-at-Home Chickens | N
How to Play ‘Debt-Ceiling Chicken’ | W

Geopolitics & trade
Chinese Spy Balloon Tracked Over U.S. This Week | W
With rare China trip, Blinken aims to steady rocky relationship | R
EU-Ukraine wartime summit to deliver on some issues, disappoint on others | R

Industries & companies
Materials: Nebraskans Are Sitting on Strategic Metals. Is Mining a Patriotic Duty? | N
Tech: Apple Sales Shrink as Pandemic Rally Ends for iPhone Maker, Other Tech Giants | W
Tech: Amazon’s advertising business grew 19%, unlike Google, Meta | C

Technology
Google CEO talks up AI on earnings call as ChatGPT competition mounts | C

Crypto
The Unusual Crew Behind Tether, Crypto’s Pre-Eminent Stablecoin | W

February 02 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: All About Tech & Productivity
Robotics and artificial intelligence are transforming myriad companies in multiple industries—allowing producers and service providers alike to work more efficiently, become more agile, and make up for productivity lost through repeated hiring and training in this tight job market. Rising adoption of robotics and AI solutions over time should drive gains in corporate productivity and mitigate businesses’ labor challenges. After all, robots never sleep! Jackie reports on some of the innovative ways that companies in various industries are putting tireless robots to work.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 30.

Markets
S&P 500 Rallies as Investors Digest Fed Rate Hike | W
Powell Holds Fire on Markets Breaking Loose From Fed Control | B

Central banks
Fed delivers small rate increase; Powell suggests ‘couple’ more hikes coming | R
Fed’s Powell: If economy meets expectations, unlikely to see rate cuts this year | R
Fed Traders See Half Point Cut Pivot Over Second Half of Year | B
BOJ’s Policy Path Hinges on Japan’s Complex Wage Dynamics | B

US
Nikki Haley, once Trump’s UN ambassador, to take him on in 2024 | R
U.S. Job Openings Jumped at End of Last Year | W

Layoffs
FedEx Is Laying Off More Than 10% of Its Management Ranks | W
Rivian to Lay Off 6% of Workforce in EV Maker’s Second Round of Job Cuts | W

Europe
Eurozone Inflation Eases for Third Month as ECB Rate Rises Bite | W

Geopolitics & trade
Dutch, Japanese curbs on chip equipment to China may not be tough enough -industry group | R
Leaders of Self-Driving-Truck Company Face Espionage Concerns Over China Ties | W
Ukraine Russia war: 65,000 war crimes committed, prosecutor general says | C
U.S. Expected to Send Ukraine Longer-Range Smart Bombs in Next Aid Package | W
 
Industries & companies
Communications Services: Meta ‘Year of Efficiency’ call from Zuckerberg was what Street needed | C

Corporate finance
Bed Bath & Beyond Misses Interest Payments as It Weighs Chapter 11 | W

February 01 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Peak Hawkishness?
It’s almost a given that the FOMC will decide today to ratchet up the federal funds rate by another 25bps. Less certain are how hawkish FOMC members will sound discussing the future course of monetary policy—starting with Fed Chair Powell today—and how much their words may perturb financial markets. But since the Fed remains ever “data dependent,” we can gain insight into their thinking by examining the recent data releases that are likely to affect it. … Also: Improving global growth prospects are igniting commodities markets, especially for gold, copper, and other metals. Melissa takes a look.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 30.

Markets
Investors Shrug Off Weak Earnings Reports as Stocks Rebound to Start Year | W
Iron ore prices could rally as one leading producer remains reluctant to share, analyst says | C
Gold demand surged to an 11-year high in 2022 on ‘colossal’ central bank buying | C

Central banks
Central banks have been fighting a war on inflation. They’re not done yet | NN
Cooler Pay Gains Add to Debate on When Fed Might Pause Rate Hikes | W

US
Wall Street Is Losing Out to Amateur Buyers in the Housing Slump | B
Home Prices Fell in November for Fifth Straight Month | W
Mortgage demand took a big step back last week, even after interest rates fell further | C
Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says | C
Nikki Haley Plans to Enter Race for 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination | W
Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign Fundraising Starts Slowly | W

Europe
Eurozone Inflation Eases for Third Month as ECB Rate Rises Bite | W
EU Sets Out Options to Compete With U.S. Green Subsidies | W

Geopolitics & trade
In the rush to end globalization, we’re missing critical points | The Hill

Industries & companies
Energy: BP’s CEO Plays Down Renewables Push as Returns Lag | W

Technology
AI advances enabled by our innovative, laissez-faire economic system | Washington Times
Google is asking employees to test potential ChatGPT competitors, including a chatbot called ‘Apprentice Bard’ | C

Climate
Colorado River deadline passes with no deal on voluntary water cuts | C
Deadly ice storm rages in Texas, causing travel chaos and outages | C

Beyond markets
Adani vs. Hindenburg: How Asia’s richest man lost his crown in just a few days | C

January 30 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ABCs of GDP & PCED
The global financial markets are reflecting expectations for an improved global economy, and the US stock market is siding with the optimists on the US economic outlook, us among them: We continue to see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). … Recent GDP and inflation data support our soft-landing scenario. Q4 GDP was strong, but a look under the hood suggests it was boosted by unintended inventories and Q1 GDP might be tempered by inventory liquidation. The past three months of PCED inflation data highlights reassuring downward progress, especially in goods inflation. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Argentina 1985” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.

Markets
The Bulls Have It in 2023—and Last Year’s Losers Are Winners | BR
An Unstoppable Stock Market Is About to Meet the Immovable Fed | BR
Stick With High-Quality Bonds as Yields Approach 5% | BR
Short Sellers Feel the Pain in Stock Market’s 2023 Rally | W
Adani hits back at Hindenburg, says it made all disclosures | R

Energy & climate
Russia’s Oil Ban Pain Is a Big Gain for India | BR
Indiana’s Cornfields Could Be Gone With the Wind Farm | W

Central banks
Fed Debates Whether Wages or Low Unemployment Will Drive Inflation | W
How High Will Rates Go? This Coming Week’s Fed Meeting May Offer Strong Clues. | BR
China central bank to roll over lending tools to spur growth | R

Global
How the world economy could avoid recession | E
The world economy’s inflation problem is easing | E

US I
What CEOs Are Saying: ‘The Consumer Is Under Pressure’ | W
The Decline of the Nice-to-Have Economy | W
Where have all America’s workers gone? | E
The Jobless Rate Is at a Half-Century Low. In These States, It’s Even Lower. | W

US II
McCarthy to discuss debt limit, spending with Biden | R
If Biden Doesn’t Run | W
The power couple at the center of Biden’s political universe | C
 
Europe
Strikes over pensions to disrupt public transport in France on Tuesday | R

China
China’s Big Comeback Is Just Getting Started. How to Play It. | BR
China’s property slump is easing, but the relief will be short-lived | E
Chinese singles face the heat over the holiday | E

Geopolitics & trade
Does China’s softer tone extend to Taiwan? | E
China’s Top Nuclear-Weapons Lab Used American Computer Chips Decades After Ban | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota Rethinks EV Strategy With New CEO | W
Financials: The humbling of Goldman Sachs | E
Home Builders: Buy Toll Brothers Stock. Shares of the Top Luxury Home Builder Look Very Cheap. | BR
Media: Breakup of Google’s Ad Business Would Reshape $500 Billion Sector | W
Retail: Buy Lowe’s Stock. The Home-Improvement Retailer Is Catching Up to Home Depot. | BR
Tech: Big Tech Is Headed for a Year of Tough Regulation | BR

Beyond markets
Covid: CDC urges immunocompromised to take precautions after Evusheld pulled | C
Skinamarink coming to Shudder, makes big money at box office | C

January 28 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Transportation, Semiconductors & Digital Wallets
Shifts in consumer purchasing have left retailers overstocked and shippers of goods feeling the pinch. But the sense among transport company managements is that demand for their services will normalize this year. Transportation stocks have been rallying in anticipation. … Another industry impacted by shifts in consumer spending is semiconductors, as computer sales have slid dramatically. And like the transports, semiconductor stocks have been outperforming the broader market as investors look past the pain. … Speaking of pain, the big banks have finally bitten the bullet and decided to develop a digital wallet of their own.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.

Markets
Stocks Finish Higher as Investors Weigh Latest Inflation Data | W
Wall Street ends higher, notches weekly gains as Fed meeting looms | R

Central banks
Fed seen ending rate hikes by March as inflation slows | R

US I
What is a ‘rolling recession’ and are we in one? Experts explain | C
PCE inflation December 2022: Key Fed measure eased, spending declined | C
Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years Promise Lots of Surprises | US News
US Pending Home Sales Rise to Cap Otherwise Disappointing Year | B
Metro areas where U.S. rent prices have dropped the most | C
Car Repossessions Grow as Inflation Slams Consumers | B

US II
White House approves student loan forgiveness for 16 million people | C
House Republicans pass bill to limit Strategic Petroleum Reserve moves | C
Can the GOP Become a Real Working-Class Party? | W
‘Trump fatigue’ in New Hampshire complicates 2024 White House bid | R

Geopolitics & trade
In Beijing’s backyard, U.S. demonstrates its military might | R
Biden Reaches China Chip Export Limit Deal With Dutch, Japan | B

Technology
ChatGPT ‘Arms Race’ Adds $4.6 Billion to Nvidia Founder’s Fortune | B
Newk’s Eatery adds AI ‘cashier in the cloud’ to take to-go

Climate
Why desalination won’t save states dependent on Colorado River water | C

January 27 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Transportation, Semiconductors & Digital Wallets
Shifts in consumer purchasing have left retailers overstocked and shippers of goods feeling the pinch. But the sense among transport company managements is that demand for their services will normalize this year. Transportation stocks have been rallying in anticipation. … Another industry impacted by shifts in consumer spending is semiconductors, as computer sales have slid dramatically. And like the transports, semiconductor stocks have been outperforming the broader market as investors look past the pain. … Speaking of pain, the big banks have finally bitten the bullet and decided to develop a digital wallet of their own.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.

US I
U.S. GDP Rose 2.9% in the Fourth Quarter After a Year of High Inflation | W
U.S. consumer spending posts second straight monthly decline; inflation cooling | R
Metros where U.S. rent prices have dropped the most | C

US II
Remote Workers Face a Lonely Wave of Layoffs | N
High-Earning Men Are Cutting Back on Their Working Hours | W
Hasbro to Cut Global Workforce by 15% | W
SAP to Cut 3,000 Jobs After Profit Plunges | W

China
China’s Portrayal of Smooth Covid Exit Leaves Scientists Wanting More Data | W
Another Covid surge in China is the global supply chain’s biggest fear | C

Geopolitics & trade
TikTok tries to sell ‘Project Texas’ as it fights for survival in the U.S. | C

Industries & companies
Energy: Big Oil earnings preview: Energy giants to smash annual profit records | C
Energy: Chevron Rides High Oil Prices to Record $35.5 Billion Annual Profit | W
Logistics: Demand for semitrucks is surging, and four companies stand to benefit | C
Tech: Thanks to OpenAI, Microsoft is beating Google in the artificial intelligence game | Vox
Tech: Intel stock tumbles over 10% after brutal results | C

Corporate finance
Microsoft, ArcelorMittal back clean steel MIT spinout Boston Metal | C
Bed Bath & Beyond defaults on credit line, warns on debts | C

Beyond markets
FDA advisors recommend using Covid omicron shots for all doses | C
Adani shares fall further as it weighs legal action against Hindenburg | C
Tornado Alley is creeping into new territory | C

January 26 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Transportation, Semiconductors & Digital Wallets
Shifts in consumer purchasing have left retailers overstocked and shippers of goods feeling the pinch. But the sense among transport company managements is that demand for their services will normalize this year. Transportation stocks have been rallying in anticipation. … Another industry impacted by shifts in consumer spending is semiconductors, as computer sales have slid dramatically. And like the transports, semiconductor stocks have been outperforming the broader market as investors look past the pain. … Speaking of pain, the big banks have finally bitten the bullet and decided to develop a digital wallet of their own.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.

Markets
S&P 500 Closes Lower as Investors Digest Earnings | W
S&P 500 closes slightly red as weak corporate guidance fuels recession fears | R
NYSE Mayhem Traced to a Staffer Who Left a Backup System Running | B
Short Seller Nate Anderson’s Hindenburg Targets Billionaire Gautam Adani | B

Central banks
Small Businesses Keep Hiring as Fed Raises Rates to Cool Economy | W

Energy
Wind Turbine Collapses Punctuate Green-Power Growing Pains | B

US
Fourth-quarter 2022 GDP: What economists are expecting | C

China
Rich Chinese Plan to Leave With Money as Covid Zero Ends | B

Geopolitics & trade
Japan PM Fumio Kishida Faces Pressure to Visit Ukraine Ahead of G-7 | B
How China Is Quietly Dominating the Global Car Market | B
Germany, U.S., to send battle tanks to help Ukraine fight off Russia | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: DOT is probing whether Southwest’s schedules were ‘unrealistic’ during holiday meltdown | C
Autos: Shift to Mined vs. Man-Made Graphite Raises Shortage Risk for EVs | W
Communications Services: Meta Pays BuzzFeed Millions to Generate Creator Content for Facebook and Instagram | W
Consumer Staples: Consumer Staples Wipeout Continues With Kimberly-Clark | W
Tech: IBM to Cut 3,900 Jobs Amid Broader Tech Slowdown | W

Technology
Precision Neuroscience, founded by Neuralink alum, raises $41 million | C

Crypto
Why we support SEC regulation of crypto | The Hill
How to reform effective altruism after Sam Bankman-Fried | Vox

January 25 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: What’s in Style At S&P and the Fed?
Standard & Poor’s last month reshuffled the components of its S&P Growth and Value indexes, with dramatic impacts on their valuation metrics. Ejected from the Pure Growth index were most of the MegaCap-8 companies, along with their gargantuan capitalizations; now only Apple remains. The forward P/Es of the S&P 500 Growth and Pure Growth indexes plummeted as a result. … Also: While FOMC members can’t share what’s been on their minds during the current pre-meeting quiet period, Melissa recaps what they last said about their expectations for monetary policy.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.

Markets
Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield | W
NYSE Glitch Causes Erroneous Prices in Hundreds of Stocks | W

Global
U.S. Economy Slows, but Europe’s Picks Up, Raising Hopes World Will Avoid Recession | W
 
Central banks
White House Considers Fed Vice Chair for Role as Biden’s Top Economic Adviser | W

US I
Weekly mortgage demand jumps 7% as interest rates drop to lowest level since September | C
These 4 cities will suffer a 2008 crash in home values: Goldman Sachs | P
Inflation is cooling, but prices on many items are going to stay high for months | C
America, it’s time to pay the demographic piper | The Hill

US II
Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries Look to Project Unity Ahead of Spending Fights | W
Ron DeSantis Becomes Focus of Attacks From 2024 GOP Presidential Hopefuls | W
Former Trump UN ambassador Nikki Haley gears up for likely 2024 run for president | C
Joe Manchin to Introduce Bill to Delay EV Tax Credits | W
Why the $7,500 EV tax credit may be tougher to get starting in March | C

Geopolitics & trade
U.S., Europe Tussle Over Frenzy of Clean-Energy Subsidies | W
Explainer: Why is Turkey blocking Swedish and Finnish NATO membership? | R
Russia says it carried out hypersonic missile exercises using a frigate in the Atlantic | C

Industries & companies
Communications Services: Google job cuts hit 1,800 employees in California, including 27 massage therapists | C

Technology
Professors Turn to ChatGPT to Teach Students a Lesson | W

Beyond markets
The Art Behind Supply Chains Is Front and Center at a Museum Exhibit | W
BlockFi secret financials show a $1.2 billion relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire | C
Half of U.S. mass attacks sparked by personal, workplace disputes – report | R
Dozens of Major Shootings Sweep the U.S. in January | W

January 24 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Market Timing
Both the stock market’s and the bond market’s October bottoms have held so far—following the script we outlined as a possibility back that month. It involved moderating inflation, which we’ve seen, an end to Fed tightening, which we should see soon, and better GDP growth than we had expected, i.e., no landing so far. On the other hand, yesterday’s LEI report suggests a hard landing, while the CEI suggests a soft landing. … Also: We share insights from market maven Joe Feshbach, who notes some auspicious signs in measures of breadth. … And: We look at some total-return statistics to emphasize the importance of dividends to returns.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.

Markets
Column: Funds bet heavily on U.S. curve steepeners | R

Central banks
ECB Will Stay Course to Return Inflation to 2%, Christine Lagarde Says | B

Commodities
Column: Power problems rein in global aluminum output growth | R

US
Tax season kicks off as IRS begins to deploy $80 billion in funding | C
$9B plunge in NYC real estate sets up brutal political fight | P
Debunking gas versus electric stoves misinformation | Vox

Emerging
India’s 1.4 Billion Population Could Become World Economy’s New Growth Engine | B

Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Weapons Industry Unprepared for a China Conflict, Report Says | W
Berlin not blocking export of tanks to Ukraine, EU diplomat says | R

Industries & companies
Logistics: Small Package-Delivery Companies Grow as Businesses Seek Alternatives to UPS, FedEx | W
Tech: Tech Layoffs Shock Young Workers. The Older People? Not So Much. | N
Tech: Spotify to cut 6% of its workforce as tech layoffs continue | C
Tech: How Apple Has So Far Avoided Layoffs: Lean Hiring, No Free Lunches | W
Tech: Microsoft announces new investment in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI | C

Technology
AI Passes U.S. Medical Licensing Exam | MedPage Today

Beyond markets
Covid: FDA says most people probably need only one annual vaccine shot | C
Lab-grown meat moves closer to American dinner plates | R
WHO urges ‘immediate action’ after cough syrup deaths | R
Consumer Reports urges dark chocolate makers to reduce lead, cadmium levels | R