Dr. Ed's Blog

March 02 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Discretionary, Utilities & AI Fake Voice
Retailers are wary about the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates on consumers’ discretionary spending. But Target this year stands to benefit from easier y/y comparisons and shoppers looking for alternatives to its rapidly shrinking competitor Bed, Bath & Beyond. Jackie examines. … Also: Will demand for electricity outstrip available supply over coming years with retiring fossil-fuel-powered electricity generation replaced by less reliable green alternatives? That’s what one transmission organization projects. … And: With voice-cloning software readily available, its potential nefarious (as well as silly) uses may spark new opportunities in identity authentication
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 27.

Markets
10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4% for First Time Since November | W
David Einhorn says investors should be ‘bearish on stocks and bullish on inflation’ | C
ESG bill: Senate vote on overturning federal rule on ESG investments | C

Central banks
A year later, the Fed still has a long way to go in inflation fight | C

US
Long-Robust U.S. Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling | W
Mortgage demand falls as interest rates rise | C
How Young Adults Living With Their Parents Save Money | N

China
China’s Economy Seen Emerging From Zero-Covid Shadow | W
China’s Factories Report Surge in Activity After Lockdowns End | N

Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: US seeks allies’ backing for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war | R
U.S. Treasury Official Travels to Beijing Despite China Tensions | W
TikTok Introduces 60-Minute Daily Time Limit for Children | W
New TikTok ban bill passes key House committee on a party-line vote | C

Industries & companies
Airlines: Delta Pilots Approve Contract Raising Pay by 34% | N
Financials: Analysis: Goldman Sachs faces hard sell for its consumer assets | R
Financials: Private equity-backed insurers under US scrutiny over risky loans
Pharma: Lilly to cut insulin prices by 70%, cap costs at $35 per month for most patients | C

Technology
Is the future of computing biological? | Ars Technica
Scientists target ‘biocomputing’ breakthrough with use of human brain cell | FT
What’s in the CHIPS Act, Aimed at Childcare Expansion and National Security | N

March 01 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Valuation & Central Banks
Today, we look at valuations for various investment style indexes. Notably, the S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps—a.k.a. SMidCaps—haven’t been this cheap versus the S&P 500 LargeCaps since 2000. Growth and Value indexes underwent major shifts when the MegaCap-8 stocks were redistributed among them in December. Global markets have been outperforming the US MSCI. They’re collectively still cheap relative to the US. But we wouldn’t stray too far from home for long … And: The underlying structural issues keeping inflation aloft will be solved by market forces, not with monetary policy. … Also: The ECB has been tightening, but perhaps not enough yet.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 27.

Markets
Stocks Close February With Declines | W

Global
Column: Soft landing for global economy remains a long shot | R

US
Biden says ‘I’m gonna raise some taxes’ in March budget proposal | R
Home-Price Growth Slowed in 2022 | W
Homebuyers Turn to Builders as Existing Homes for Sale Get Rarer | B
U.S. Aims to Chart New Course for Chip Industry | W

China
China’s abrupt reopening sparks student accommodation crisis in Australia | R

India
Adani Isn’t the Only Indian Tycoon in Trouble, Look at Vedanta | B
India leads world in cutting internet access for 5th year in a row, watchdog says | R

Geopolitics & trade
House Committee Lays Out Case for China Threat | W
US House panel on China cites ‘existential struggle’ at first hearing | R
China Supply Chains: Replacing Them Is Hard. Just Look at Vietnam | B
Column: United States targets Russian aluminium and other metals | R

Industries & companies
Autos: GM cutting hundreds of jobs to reduce costs | R
Retail: Target Is Investing $5 Billion to Reboot Its Stores | B

Climate
America Is Trying to Electrify. There Aren’t Enough Electricians. | W
 
Beyond markets
How Did Covid Start? DOE Lab Leak Report Has a Key Caveat | B

February 28 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Inflation & Valuation Questions
Are stock valuations too high for our inflationary times? Admittedly, last year’s bear market didn’t maul valuations as severely as most do. But inflation has been moderating in a host of areas, which we expect to continue. And if the economy sticks to the rolling-recession script, as we think it will, stocks aren’t overvalued but fairly valued, in our opinion. … Also: For more perspective on the valuation question, we look at various valuation models’ current readings in their historical context, including a valuation model that takes inflation into account.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 27.

Markets
Banks pile into euro zone bond sales as rates shoot up | R

Commodities
Analysis: Lithium price slide deepens as China battery giant bets on cheaper inputs | R

US
Apartment Rents Fall as Crush of New Supply Hits Market | W
There’s no easy fix to Midtown’s post-COVID half-empty offices | P
What Layoffs? Many Employers Are Eager to Hang On to Workers. | N
Pentagon to Reap Rewards From $53 Billion Chips Act | W
Janet Yellen Visits Ukraine to Discuss Economic Support | W
What the Supreme Court Case Means for Student-Loan Forgiveness | W

Europe
ECB has started to win inflation fight, Lane says | R

China
Rust belt province got old before it got rich, as much of China will | R

Corporate finance
Pfizer in Talks to Acquire Seagen in Deal Likely Valued at More Than $30 Billion | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia Turns to China’s Yuan in Effort to Ditch the Dollar | W
The U.S. and China have a culture clash around their telephone hotline | C
New TikTok ban is poised to advance in Congress | C

Technology
Mark Zuckerberg announces new team at Meta working on A.I. products | C

Climate
Speculative tech to reflect sun away from Earth needs focus, UN says | C

Beyond markets
Three years later, Tom Cotton’s Covid theory gets a fresh look | MSNBC
White House Says No Consensus on Covid Origin | W
Hong Kong Lifts Citywide Mask Mandate After Almost Three Years | W
As Americans Work From Home, Europeans and Asians Head Back to the Office | W

February 27 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: March Madness?
The stock market beat a hasty retreat in February, spooked by reports of January’s economic strength and the Fed’s dreaded possible reaction. So today we look at what March’s releases of economic data for February might bring. They could be bad news for the markets, but we actually expect the best—viewing January’s strength as anomalous and expecting February’s data to confirm our soft-landing outlook. Accordingly, we still think a new bull market was born last October; it’s just not bursting out of the gate as most bulls do. The market may remain volatile pending more clarity on what the Fed will do. … Also: Dr. Ed’s bearish review of “Cocaine Bear” (-).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 21.

Markets
Investors Are Bracing for Surge in Market Volatility | W
Any Way You Slice It, Stocks Still Don’t Look Cheap | BR
Bonds Are Slumping Again. How to Play It Safe. | BR
Hopes for Lower Interest Rates Fade as Inflation Doesn’t | BR
Warren Buffett annual letter Berkshire Hathaway: stock buybacks | C

Commodities
Russia’s War Brings Commodities Scare, but No Squeeze | BR
War in Ukraine Drives New Surge of U.S. Oil Exports to Europe | W

Central banks
Is the U.S. Economy In Recession? What the Fed—and Everyone Else—Got Wrong. | BR

US
Burned Out, More Americans Are Turning to Part-Time Jobs | W
Conservatives Have a New Rallying Cry: Down With ESG | W
Supreme Court’s Student-Loan Case Will Test Limits of Presidential Power | W
Joe Manchin Declines to Describe Himself as a Democrat | W

Europe
Switzerland avoided rampant inflation: Why the Swiss economy is strong | C

China
Despite the bullish talk, Wall Street has China reservations | E
China has not resolved its past lending mistakes. But it is learning from them | E
Xi Jinping’s next overseas-lending revolution | E
How to Invest in China as New Megatrends Take Hold, According to Jefferies’ Simon Powell | BR
China, Needing Babies, Eases Limits on Births | NYT
Covid-Era Savings Are Crucial to China’s Economic Recovery | W
China’s public is fed up, but not on the brink of revolt | E

Industries & companies
Autos: First Big U.S. EV-Battery Plant Offers Lessons as Industry Springs Up | W
Retail: A warning from Walmart about the health of the American consumer | E
Retail: Can’t figure out economy? Walmart, Home Depot are having trouble, too | C

Geopolitics & trade
Global firms are eyeing Asian alternatives to Chinese manufacturing | E
CIA Chief Says China Has Doubts About Its Ability to Invade Taiwan | W
How to win the hot war in Ukraine and the cold war that will follow it | E
Putin is too confident he can grind down Ukraine, CIA director says | C
How Microchips Migrate From China to Russia | W

Technology
ChatGPT Heralds an Intellectual Revolution | W

Beyond markets
U.S. Energy Department assesses with ‘low confidence’ Covid may have originated from Chinese lab leak | C
A Lab Leak in China Most Likely Origin of Covid Pandemic, Energy Department Says | W
Another Turn in the Covid Lab-Leak Story | W
There is a worrying amount of fraud in medical research | E
Three Years Late, the Lancet Recognizes Natural Immunity | W

February 24 (Friday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Fuel Efficiency
For the S&P 500 index and many of its sectors, forward revenues are at record highs but forward earnings are below their record highs of last year. The disparity indicates a profit-margin squeeze, with several labor-cost-related sources; those stemming from pandemic aftereffects should abate in time. … And: The fuel efficiency of automobiles has been climbing—with more miles traveled on fewer tanks of gasoline. Increasing use of electric vehicles may be driving this trend. Jackie collects the evidence from two places where EV adoption is ahead of the curve, California and Norway. It’s a nascent trend worth watching given the ramifications for global oil demand.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 21.

Markets
U.S. Stocks Rebound After Dayslong S&P 500 Selloff | W
USD: Dollar Strength Peaks, Bringing Relief for Global Inflation, Trade | B
 
Central banks
Jamie Dimon on Fed: It has ‘lost a little bit of control of inflation’ | C

US
Economy Showing Strength in Early 2023 After Last Quarter’s GDP Gain Revised Modestly Lower | W
Mortgage Rates Topping 6% Have Lenders Offering Free Home Refinancing | B
Gina Raimondo says U.S. to create semiconductor manufacturing clusters | C
J.B. Pritzker Takes on Griffin to Keep DeSantis, Trump From Presidency | B
Trump, Buttigieg and the East Palestine Train Derailment | W

Geopolitics & trade
U.S. to Expand Troop Presence in Taiwan for Training Against China Threat | W
U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s Potential Arms Transfer to Russia | W
Ukraine War Is Ron DeSantis’s Security Test | W
Ukraine Fatigue Is Not an Option | W
Ukraine prepares for the biggest reconstruction since World War II | C
How One Ukrainian Company Survived, and Thrived, Through a Year of War | NYT
 
Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing pauses delivery of 787 Dreamliners | C
Autos: Carvana (CVNA) Reports Wider Loss as Used-Car Prices Tumble | B
Media: Netflix Cuts Subscription Prices in Over 30 Countries | W
Retail: Target Investing $100 Million to Expand Next-Day Delivery | W

Beyond markets
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried faces new criminal charges | C

February 23 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Fuel Efficiency
For the S&P 500 index and many of its sectors, forward revenues are at record highs but forward earnings are below their record highs of last year. The disparity indicates a profit-margin squeeze, with several labor-cost-related sources; those stemming from pandemic aftereffects should abate in time. … And: The fuel efficiency of automobiles has been climbing—with more miles traveled on fewer tanks of gasoline. Increasing use of electric vehicles may be driving this trend. Jackie collects the evidence from two places where EV adoption is ahead of the curve, California and Norway. It’s a nascent trend worth watching given the ramifications for global oil demand.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 21.

Energy
Natural-Gas Prices Plunge, and Drillers Dial Back | W
Analysis: Healthy gas storage warms Europe, but not enough | R
Russian Oil Is Still Flowing, and That Is What the West Wants | W

Global
Biden to Nominate Former Mastercard Executive Ajay Banga to Lead World Bank | W

Central banks
Fed, Powell Worry About South’s Inflation-Fueling Job Market | B

Food
Mounting Cost of Bird Flu: 48 Million Dead Chickens and Some Very Expensive Eggs | W
Brazil Suspends Beef Exports to China After Finding Mad-Cow Disease | W

US
Economy Showing Strength in Early 2023 After Last Quarter’s GDP Gain Revised Modestly Lower | W
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall ; fourth-quarter growth trimmed | R
‘Stubborn’ food inflation leaves U.S. shoppers with slim appetite for other goods | R
U.S. Aims to Create Semiconductor Manufacturing Clusters With Chips Act Funds | W
Despite Tech Layoffs and Housing Slowdown, San Francisco’s Real-Estate Market Creeps Back to Life | W

Geopolitics & trade
Spy balloon: Comparing U.S., China statements after Blinken-Wang met | C
U.S. to Expand Troop Presence in Taiwan for Training Against China Threat | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Rolls-Royce shares soar after annual results crush expectations | C
Autos: Lordstown halts production of EV Endurance trucks to fix issues | C
Financials: Financials may get more love amid sustained higher interest rates | C
Financials: Wells Fargo lays off mortgage bankers after some get California perk | C

Technology
Chip Makers See ChatGPT Stirring Strong Demand for Advanced Processors | W

Beyond markets
Opinion | Arguing About Masks and Mandates | N
Don’t be fooled — the FTX fiasco was preventable | The Hill
Is it time for a four-day work week? Bernie Sanders thinks so. | Vox
The SEC Is Starting a Massive Database of Every Stock Trade | Cato Institute
Hundreds of Energy Department Officials Hold Stocks Related to Agency’s Work Despite Warnings | W

February 22 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On US Earnings & India’s Economy
This earnings season stands out from most, and not in a good way: Hearing managements discuss their companies’ Q4 results on conference calls has sent analysts back to their spreadsheets. Consensus earnings estimates for all four quarters of this year have been falling. … Looking at valuations in the context of falling estimates suggests that the S&P 500 isn’t cheap after its runup since October. SMidCaps and overseas stocks are cheaper. …  Also: India aims to usurp China as the go-to nation for outsourcing, hoping to shed its “developing” status and become a global trade leader. But first, it may need to clean up its act.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 21.

Markets
Dow Industrials Drop Nearly 700 Points on Interest-Rate Concerns | W
GOP lawmakers vilify ESG moves at BlackRock, Vanguard | C

Global
Global Economy Shows Signs of Winter Resilience | W

Central banks
The Fed is trying to lower inflation: Biden’s actions are increasing it | The Hill

US
U.S. business activity rebounds to eight-month high in February- S&P Global survey | R
U.S. home sales post 12th straight monthly drop; house price inflation slows | R
How Wall Street bought single-family homes and put them up for rent | C
Biden Administration to Cut Mortgage ​​Insurance Costs for Lower-Income Buyers | W

Layoffs
McKinsey to cut 2,000 jobs in one of its biggest layoffs – Bloomberg News | R

Geopolitics & trade
In Speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin Suspends Nuclear Arms Treaty With U.S. | W
Russia, China Challenge U.S.-Led World Order | W
China’s Xi Jinping Plans Russia Visit as Putin Wages War in Ukraine | W
China’s Newest Weapon to Nab Western Technology—Its Courts | W
U.S. Plans to Impose New Sanctions on Some 200 Russian Individuals, Entities | W
South Korea to lift post-arrival COVID test requirement for travelers from China | R

Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon employees express dismay about sudden return-to-office policy | C
Retail: Walmart, Home Depot Give Cautious Outlook as Shoppers Spend More on Basics | W

Corporate finance
Chemical maker INEOS makes U.S. shale bet with $1.4 bln Chesapeake deal | R

Technology
The Next Hot Housing Market Is Out of This World. It’s in the Metaverse. | N

Beyond markets
Inflation drives 2023 wedding costs up even as nuptial boom winds down | C

February 21 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Four Landing Scenarios
What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. We also see two no-landing possibilities—one disinflationary, one inflationary (20% each)—and a possible hard landing (20%). The first two scenarios would be optimistic for the economy and bullish for stocks, the last two negative and bearish. … Also: We examine data supporting the relatively new no-landing scenarios as well as the latest inflation data. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Vikings: Valhalla: Season 2” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 13.

Markets
Chinese Shares Lead Gains in Global Markets as U.S. Breaks for Presidents Day | W

Central banks
Whatever Happens With ‘Inflation,’ Don’t Cheer/Jeer the Fed for the Outcome | FO

Commodities
Feed the World Without Fertilizer? Why Crop Nutrients Are Suddenly Political | B
Big Take: How Fertilizer Has Become a Lever of Global Influence | B
Column: The devil’s metal strikes again in Trafigura nickel fraud case | R

US
Layoffs spread, but some employers can’t hire fast enough | C
Debt-Ceiling Standoff Prompts Backup Plans, but They Face Hurdles Too | W
Why fed-up Tri-Staters are voting with their flip-flops | P

China
China’s State-Owned Property Developers Shun Private-Sector Deals | W
 
Europe
Column: Europe nears end of winter with bulging gas stocks | R

Geopolitics & trade
Inside Biden’s Surprise Kyiv, Ukraine, Visit to Meet Zelenskiy | B
North Korea fires two more missiles into its Pacific ‘firing range’ | R
Why So Many States Want to Ban China From Owning Farmland | FiveThirtyEight

Industries & companies
Airlines: United aims to make it easier for families to sit together for free | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon Corporate Workers Face Pay Reduction After Shares Slip | W

Climate
Electric vehicles alone won’t take us to a decarbonized future | The Hill
Turkey and Syria rocked again by magnitude 6.3 earthquake | C
Italy faces new drought alert as Venice canals run dry | R

Crypto
EU calls for fast-track crypto capital rules for banks | R
How the SEC and Paxos-BUSD fight could impact the stablecoin market | C

Beyond markets
Please go home! Indian firm deploys software for work-life balance | R

February 20 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Industrials, Chinese Spies & MIT’s Picks
Three pieces of recent legislation incentivize manufacturers to produce their goods on US soil, and the amount being spent on the construction of new factories has risen sharply, presumably in response. Jackie examines the projects planned by three such companies—a solar panel maker, a semiconductor manufacturer, and Ford Motor. … Also: We recap the DOJ’s recent efforts to stop Chinese spies intent on stealing US technology and defense secrets. … And: A look at several innovations on MIT’s short list of life-changing new technologies.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 13.

Markets
Why ‘No Landing’ Could Still Mean Trouble for the Stock Market | BR
Stock Buybacks Aren’t Bad. They Aren’t Good, Either. | W

Global
Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think | E
Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up With Inflation | W

Commodities
Mexico’s Lopez Obrador orders ministry to step up lithium nationalization | R
Lumber Prices Could Rally as Home Buying Picks Up | BR
Dow and 5 Other Stocks to Play the Future of Plastic | BR

US
Amid high housing costs, how to figure out what you can spend on rent | C

China
At job fairs in China, employers are thrifty and applicants timid | R

Geopolitics & trade
Trade tensions seen hanging over U.S. firms’ caution over China | C
U.S. officials address mounting tensions between U.S. and China during Munich Security Conference | C
Vice President Harris says Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine | C
U.S. Warns China Against Supplying Arms to Russia in Ukraine War | W
North Korea fires ballistic missiles, warns of turning Pacific into ‘firing range’ | R

Industries & companies
Autos: More Auto Payments Are Late, Exposing Cracks in Consumer Credit | W
Communications Services: Facebook Parent Launching ‘Meta Verified’ Subscription Service | W

Corporate finance
Going Private Again Is All the Rage Among Newly Public Companies | W

Climate
The World’s Plastic Use Is Getting Worse. ‘It’s a Recipe for Disaster.’ | BR

Crypto
Bitcoin’s Bounce Could Be Fleeting as Regulatory Outlook Darkens | BR
How the SEC and Paxos-BUSD fight could impact the stablecoin market | C

February 18 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Industrials, Chinese Spies & MIT’s Picks
Three pieces of recent legislation incentivize manufacturers to produce their goods on US soil, and the amount being spent on the construction of new factories has risen sharply, presumably in response. Jackie examines the projects planned by three such companies—a solar panel maker, a semiconductor manufacturer, and Ford Motor. … Also: We recap the DOJ’s recent efforts to stop Chinese spies intent on stealing US technology and defense secrets. … And: A look at several innovations on MIT’s short list of life-changing new technologies.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 13.

Markets
S&P 500 ends down as investors fret about interest rates | R
The S&P 500 Is The Most Popular And Overpriced Benchmark In The World | FO
The stock market’s pullback is healthy | MW
401(k) balances dropped 20% in 2022 but investors barely flinched | C
Why a Strong Economy Is Making Stock Investors Jittery | N

Central banks
Fed’s Barkin Supports Measured Pace of Interest-Rate Increases | W
Bringing the United States Economy Back into Balance | IMF
Philip R Lane: The euro area hiking cycle – an interim assessment | BIS

US
U.S. Households Lifting Economy After Being Stung by Inflation Last Year | W
It’s a Richcession, Not a Recession. Here’s Your Investing Playbook. | W
Far-right Republican groups surge in swing state Michigan | R
What CEOs Are Getting Wrong About the Future of Work—and How to Make It Right | W

Emerging
China’s Angry Pensioners Are Symptomatic of Deeper Problems | W
India’s PM Modi Comes Under India Opposition Fire Over Adani Links | B
George Soros Says Adani’s Hindenburg Crisis May Spark India Democracy Revival | B

Geopolitics & trade
Pentagon’s top China official travels to Taiwan, sources say | R
U.S. military completes recovery of Chinese balloon, now analyzing its ‘guts’ | R
TikTok Commits to Two New Data Centers in Europe | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Ford F-150 Lightning had separate battery issue before fire | C
Communications Services: How Google Ran Out of Ideas | The Atlantic
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon employees asked to be in office three days a week: Andy Jassy | C

Technology
Why a Conversation With Bing’s Chatbot Left Me Deeply Unsettled | N
ChatGPT and Automation Come to Knowledge Work | City Journal
Microsoft Defends New Bing After AI Chatbot Offers Unhinged Responses | W
Jasper generative AI conference in San Francisco: What was it like? | C
ChatGPT Is a Blurry JPEG of the Web | The New Yorker

Climate
Why America’s outdated energy grid is a climate problem | C