May 22 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Leading The Wrong Way?
So where’s this recession signaled by the LEI and widely expected to come anytime now? Why haven’t high inflation and monetary tightening ground economic activity to a halt yet? Because a recession isn’t coming anytime soon. We never bought that it was inevitable anyway. We’re raising our subjective odds of a soft landing, instead of a recessionary hard one, to 70% from 60%. The burden of proof is now on the pessimists. … So what’s been keeping the economy from a textbook recession? Unusual forces are in play, acting as economic shock absorbers. … Also: Our Roaring 2020s boom-times thesis remains intact. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Air” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 15.
Markets
Stock Prices of Office Landlords Plummet as Short Sellers Pile In | W
Using Options to Bet on a Bullish or Bearish Breakout for Stocks | BR
Biden’s Billion-Dollar Oil Trade Faces a Big Test | W
Central banks
Fed Rate Increases Hit Small Businesses the Hardest | W
Fed Official Is Open to Forgoing June Rate Hike | W
Fed’s Kashkari says a June pause on rates wouldn’t indicate an end to hiking cycle | C
US
Immigrants’ Share of the U.S. Labor Force Grows to a New High | W
Biden and McCarthy to meet at White House on Monday to try and avoid looming debt default | C
Joe Biden’s global vision is too timid and pessimistic | E
Europe
Meet the lefty Europeans who want to deliberately shrink the economy | E
China
Is China’s recovery about to stall? | E
Geopolitics & trade
The fault lines in America’s China policy | E
Isolating China will be ‘impossible and dangerous,’ analyst says, as the G-7 gets tough on Beijing | C
Europe can’t decide how to unplug from China | E
China Seeks to Counter Musk’s Starlink With Own Satellite Network | W
Why China fears Starlink | E
Industrial Policy Is Booming at the G-7. Where Does It Stop? | BR
The fight over the future of global payments | E
Industries & companies
Autos: GM will introduce an all-electric Cadillac Escalade ‘IQ’ later this year | C
Autos: Ford looks to charge up EV drive with flurry of battery deals | R
Consumer: Tyson Insiders Bought Up the Beaten-Down Stock | BR
Energy: Exxon Mobil, Shell, and 8 Other Stocks to Play a Resurgent Energy Sector | BR
Financials: Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon Responds to Critics and Makes His Case for the Stock | BR
Financials: Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman to Step Down as CEO. Who Could Be Next. | BR
Fintech: Apple’s Next Version of the Wallet App Could Be Killer. Why PayPal and Other Fintechs Should Worry. | BR
Media: TikTok’s Algorithm Can Be a Huge Boost for Authors. A Ban Could Hurt Book Sales. | BR
Tech: Meta fined a record $1.3 billion over EU user data transfers to the U.S. | C
Tech: China chip stocks rally after Beijing said U.S. chip giant Micron is ‘major security risk’ | C
Corporate finance
Chevron to Buy PDC Energy in $6.3 Billion Stock Swap | W
JPMorgan Chase raises key revenue target to $84 billion after First Republic takeover | C