Dr. Ed's Blog

November 15 (Friday)

Markets
Rising Treasury Yields Quiet Investors’ Concerns W
Subzero Interest Rates Are Luring Insurers to Risk N

US
U.S. producer prices increase by the most in six months R
Red and Blue Economies Are Heading in Sharply Different Directions N

Europe
‘Suffering’ German economy narrowly escapes recession in third quarter R
Daimler drives European shares lower as data stirs more fears R

China
China’s economic slump continues as manufacturing growth slows sharply, investment growth hits 20-year low C
No More Easy Profits as China’s Venture-Capital Boom Fizzles W
Jack Ma: Alibaba’s Singles Day sales missed expectations because it was ‘hot’ and fell on a Monday C
Hong Kong Colleges Become Besieged Citadels as Police Close In N

US politics
The Take Down Trump Project W
Fox’s prime time stars are telling Trump that the impeachment hearings are a ‘disaster’ for Democrats NN

Geopolitics & trade
U.S.-China Trade Talks Hit Snag Over Farm Purchases W
China says holding ‘in-depth’ talks with U.S. on interim trade deal R
China’s Commerce Ministry says trade war should be ended by removing tariffs C
Gaza, Israel Reach Tentative Cease-Fire After Two Days of Fighting W

Industries & companies
Auto: Credit Suisse says Tesla is running out of time as the major electric car maker, shares to dive 40% C
Retail: Walmart earnings beat estimates, shares rise on higher outlook ahead of holidays C
Tech: IBM hopes to change weather forecasting around the globe using big data and a new supercomputer C

Corporate finance
Carl Icahn takes stake in HP, pushes for merger with Xerox C
WeWork tells investors it lost $1.25 billion in the third quarter C

Offbeat
The Best and Worst U.S. Airports of 2019 W
Texting While Walking Is Dangerous. Here’s How to Stop. N

November 14 (Thursday)

Markets
Paul Tudor Jones sees an ‘explosive combination’ of forces driving the market higher C
Investors see a market plunge if Warren wins the election. Many said the same about Trump in 2016 C
It’s Hard to Be a Pessimist Amid This Rush to Risk B

Central banks
Fed’s Powell says interest rates unlikely to change as long as growth continues C
Sweden to Abandon Negative Rates But Currency Can’t Catch a Break W

US
Auto Borrowing Rises Amid Low Interest Rates, Solid Economy W

Europe
Spain Overtakes U.K. as Europe’s Worst Stock Market After Vote B
UK inflation dips to three-year low, adding to BoE rate cut talk R

China
As Hong Kong Universities Become Battle Zones, Mainland Chinese Students Flee W

US politics
With Bloomberg in the Wings, Here’s Where He Stands W
Diplomat Bill Taylor reveals Trump discussed Biden probe with EU ambassador day after July 25 Ukraine call C
The Man Trump Trusts for News on Ukraine N

Geopolitics & trade
Tariffs on China Imports Emerge as Hurdle to Trade Deal W
Israel Kills Senior Islamic Jihad Commander in Gaza NN
Gaza Rocket Attacks on Israel Resume, Risking Wider Conflict W

Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla’s ‘Made in Germany’: Musk sets up shop in Berlin R
FAANGs: Google has a trust problem, and it could kill the company’s cloud ambitions C
FAANGs: Next in Google’s Quest for Consumer Dominance: Banking W
FAANGs: Apple is finally willing to make gadgets thicker so they work better C
Media: Disney+ surpasses 10 million sign-ups since launch C
Retail: Nike won’t sell directly to Amazon anymore C
Retail: ‘Brands don’t need Amazon.’ Nike’s departure could prompt others to leave, analysts say C

Corporate finance
Alibaba launches $13.4 billion Hong Kong listing to fund expansion R

Offbeat
Think Road Rage Is Bad in Your City? Try Driving in Mongolia B

YRI
Daily Markets Overview

November 13 (Wednesday)

Markets
Wall Street Plays Rotation Roulette as 2019 Haven Trade Unwinds B
FOMO Grows as Investors Scurry to Catch Stock Market Boom B
More than half of the world’s richest investors see a big market drop in 2020, says UBS survey C

Central banks
Trump rails on Fed, notes other countries have negative rates: ‘Give me some of that money’ C

Global
Recession Doom Mongers Go Quiet as Growth Hopes Provide Cheer B

US
Warehouse leasing plummets – because there’s so little new space to lease C
Boomers Want to Stay Home. Senior Housing Now Faces a Budding Glut. W
Arctic blast brings snow, ice and bone-chilling temps across US C

Europe
European Earnings Are Pretty Good, Except for Energy B
UK jobs fall by most in over four years as election nears R

Emerging
Chile’s Month of Unrest Starting to Infect Latin American Peers B

US politics
Nikki Haley just made herself the GOP front-runner to succeed Trump C
Reddit will allow the alleged Ukraine whistleblower’s name to surface, diverging from Facebook and YouTube C

Geopolitics & trade
Trump May Punt on Auto Tariffs as European Carmakers Propose Plan N

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing jetliner orders continue to fall as 737 Max grounding wears on C
Autos: Nissan Slashes Forecasts as Sales and Profit Fall on Weak Demand W
Media: Disney+ suffers technical errors on launch day C
Retail: Amazon Go, the cashierless retail store of the future, has some new competition C

Offbeat
Deadly Pig Disease Sparks Fear of a Heart Drug Shortage B
The 5 college majors American students most regret picking C

November 12 (Tuesday)

Markets
Weak 2019 earnings growth paves the way for a strong 2020 earnings picture, boosting stocks C
Once a source of panic, the yield curve is validating stocks’ comeback and may crown the winners C
Selloff in Complex Investments Flashes Warning for Junk Bonds W

Europe
Election gift for PM Johnson: Brexit Party stands down in Conservative seats R
UK economy dodges recession, but annual growth slowest since 2010 R
Spain’s far right doubles seats in hung parliament, difficult talks ahead R

China
How Bad Is China’s Debt? A City Hospital Is Asking Nurses for Loans N
Alibaba breaks Singles Day record with more than $38 billion in sales C
Hong Kong violence prompts reminder that China troops close at hand R

US politics
Mark Cuban is latest billionaire to bash Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax plan C

Geopolitics & trade
Top Iraqi cleric casts doubt on reforms offered to defuse unrest R
Bolivian Leader Evo Morales Steps Down N

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing now says it expects 737 MAX to resume commercial service in January R
Energy: Frackers Prepare to Pull Back, Exacerbating a Slowdown in U.S. Oil Growth W
FAANGs: There’s a race to replace our iPhones with smart glasses we wear everywhere C
FAANGs: Amazon’s Heavy Recruitment of Chinese Sellers Puts Consumers at Risk W
Financials: Stock trading is back but no one is charging for it, thanks to millennials C
Media: The streaming wars officially kick off this week, but don’t expect the cheap plans to last forever C
Media: Disney is staking its future on Disney+ NN
Space: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two rocket reuse records C
Tech: The Quantum Computing Threat to American Security W

Corporate finance
Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick sells half a billion dollars in stock after lockup period ends C

Offbeat
UBS trader Scott Hapgood skips Anguilla court hearing month after Trump says manslaughter case looks ‘very wrong’ C

November 11 (Monday)

Markets-US
ETF inflows rise to a record $4 trillion and top industry expert says it’s still ‘early days’ C
Grading stocks’ comeback and whether this is the start of the next leg of the bull market C
Here are the biggest risks to the financial markets in 2020 C
With a market at record highs, these are the most loved stocks on Wall Street right now C

Markets-Global
Investors looking beyond U.S. equity market for 2020 R
Is It Time to Shop for Stocks in Europe and Japan? BR
Global investors flock to China, undeterred by trade war R
Unloved Assets Join Market Rally in Latest Sign of Optimism W

Central banks
NY Fed’s Williams says economy is in a good place, monetary policy well positioned R

Europe
Spaniards Vote in Repeat Election Amid Pleas to Break Logjam B
Catalan Unrest Dims Spanish Socialists’ Hopes for Big Electoral Win W

Emerging
China to reshuffle management, recapitalize smaller banks to curb risks: Caixin R
India’s Divided Economy—and a Manufacturing Slump—Slow Its Rise W

Impeachment
House Republicans want Ukraine whistleblower and Hunter Biden to testify at impeachment hearings C

US politics
Joe Biden allies are worried that a Mike Bloomberg candidacy could clinch the nomination for Elizabeth Warren C
How the State Dept.’s Dissenters Incited a Revolt, Then a Rallying Cry N
Why Pete Buttigieg Annoys His Democratic Rivals N

Geopolitics & trade
Trump says China trade talks moving along nicely, but deal has to be right R
Trump Says China Wants a Deal With U.S. ‘Much More Than I Do’ B
The fall of the Berlin Wall created a New World Order 30 years ago – now it’s at risk C

Industries & companies
FAANGs: How Facebook stumbled to the edge of a government breakup C
Financials: These Bank Stocks Might Not Stay Cheap Much Longer BR
Industrials: Honeywell Is a Growth Company Again as It Taps the Power of Big Data BR
Media: It’s Showtime for Streaming. Here’s What’s Ahead for Netflix, Disney, and Apple, According to This Tech Analyst. BR

Corporate finance
Saudi Aramco will offer less than 1% of shares to individual investors in IPO C
Saudi Aramco prospectus flags risks, gives few details on IPO size R

Offbeat
An investor’s guide to space, Wall Street’s next trillion-dollar industry C
French Baguettes From a Vending Machine? ‘What a Tragedy.’ N

November 09 (Saturday)

Markets
S&P 500 posts fifth week of gains as Wall St. hits records R
JP Morgan’s top quant says the ‘once in a decade’ rotation into value stocks will continue C
The market rally will soon be tested by a big Trump speech and testimony from the Fed chief C
Big Tech closes out a big week with Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet all closing at records C

Central banks
Fed’s Brainard Says Climate Change Might Have Implications for Neutral Interest Rate W

China
China Is Trying to Clean Up Its Banks. It’s Messy. N

US politics
Joe Biden allies are worried that a Mike Bloomberg candidacy could clinch the nomination for Elizabeth Warren C
Bloomberg faces big challenges if he leaps into 2020 White House race R
How Michael Bloomberg became the richest man in media NN
Trump on Bloomberg: ‘He’s got some personal problems’ C
Trump to ask U.S. Supreme Court to review tax returns decision R

Impeachment
Factbox: The Trump impeachment inquiry: What we’ve learned so far R
Why are Republicans hell-bent on exposing Trump whistleblower? R
Republicans tap close Trump ally to serve on impeachment panel R
White House official says he heard U.S. envoy push for investigation of Bidens R
Giuliani Associates Urged Ukraine’s Prior President to Open Biden, Election Probes W

Geopolitics & trade
Trump says he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China, after week of trade optimism C
White House optimistic on prospects for China trade deal, official tells CNBC R
Deadly clashes reignite in Iraq despite cleric’s call for calm R

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Southwest, American extend Boeing 737 Max cancellations until early March C
Autos: After years of waiting, Tesla will finally reveal its electric pickup NN
Autos: Elon Musk fires back at Tesla detractor: ‘Allow us to send you a small gift of short shorts’ NN
FAANGs: How Apple CEO Tim Cook charmed President Donald Trump C
FAANGs: Facebook and YouTube say they are removing content mentioning potential whistleblower’s name NN
Retail: Old Navy’s future is in doubt NN
Tech: Powerful Coalition Pushes Back on Anti-Tech Fervor N
Tech: Data-Center Stocks Face Risks After Rally W

Corporate finance
As WeWork Grew, Wall Street Lent It Money and Credibility W

Offbeat
CDC says it’s made a breakthrough in finding possible cause of deadly vaping illness C
The president shoots back at Leon Cooperman: ‘He’s doing very well with Trump’ C
Climate Activists Try to Harness Young Voters’ ‘Existential Anxiety’ W
Not So Fast, Mr. Trump! Relocating to a Low-Tax State Is Hard to Do W

November 08 (Friday)

Markets
Bond yields are surging, and the scary recession warning everyone was talking about has gone away C
Rates surge with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping the most since Trump’s election C

Central banks
September funding crunch a ‘seminal moment’ for Fed: BlackRock’s Rieder R

US
U.S. Consumer Credit Rises at Slowest Pace Since June 2018 B
Federal Reserve Survey Shows Demand for Business Loans Weakened in Third Quarter B
Drop in Consumer-Goods Imports Points to Slower U.S. Growth W
WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown W

Europe
Bank of England Forecasts Modest Economic Boost if Brexit Plan Passes W

China
China Embraces Bankruptcy, U.S.-Style, to Cushion a Slowing Economy W

US politics
Mike Bloomberg is preparing to enter the Democratic presidential primary C
Public Impeachment Hearings Will Start with a Bang B
The G.O.P.’s Election Day Problem in the Suburbs Is Getting Worse N

Geopolitics & trade
China, U.S. agree to roll back tariffs as part of trade deal -officials R
Rollback of China tariffs faces fierce opposition in White House R
U.S. Says Phase-One China Deal Would Include Tariff Rollback B

Industries & companies
Consumer: GoPro quarterly revenue beats on ‘Hero’ camera demand, shares rise R
Media: Disney stock rises after beating on top and bottom lines C
Media: Some Disney movies won’t appear on Disney+ on launch day—or ever C
Media: Disney’s ESPN is caught in strategic limbo as the company moves slowly toward streaming C
Media: Netflix is leaving millions on the table by not giving ‘The Irishman’ a wide theatrical release C
Media: Roku tumbles 11% as Wall St. gives thumbs down to latest report R
Retail: Sears owner gets $250 million lifeline, says it will shut another 96 stores—Here’s where they are C

Corporate finance
Here are the 10 companies with the most cash on hand C
SoftBank Takes a $4.6 Billion Hit From WeWork. Its C.E.O. Remains Defiant. N

Offbeat
Wall Street’s ‘Charging Bull’ sculpture is moving C
Inside the High-Stakes Race to Build the World’s First Flying Taxi N
Riding While Drunk and Other Dangers of the Electric Scooter Craze N

November 07 (Thursday)

Markets
Market teeters on Trump, Xi meeting location, hoping a logistics snag is not sign of bigger issue C

Central banks
The Fed is still faltering on inflation, and one official is calling for ‘aggressive’ action C
Fed’s Evans: Fed Has Moved Policy to Slightly Accommodative Stance W
Fed’s Williams Says No Rate Changes Penciled In, Economy Will Drive Policy W

US
Spiking Health Problems in U.S. Millennials May Make Them Poorer B
How California Became America’s Housing Market Nightmare B
Television Host Regis Philbin Lists Greenwich Home for a Big Loss W

Europe
IMF Warns Europe to Make Emergency Plan for Economic Slump B

China
China Embraces Bankruptcy, U.S.-Style, to Cushion a Slowing Economy W
China’s Xi Praises Free Trade. Striking Deals Is Another Matter. N

US politics
U.S. diplomats to star in public impeachment hearings next week R
White House will hire two high-profile aides to run impeachment messaging C
In Trump’s shadow, Republican suburban slide shows little sign of slowing R
Tuesday’s Elections Went Badly for Donald Trump B
Judge urges House to negotiate with Trump in tax return fight R
Sen. Kamala Harris introduces bill to lengthen school day by three hours C

Geopolitics & trade
The Coming Middle East Conflagration

Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Wins Positive Outlook From S&P as Cash Flow Takes Shape B
Autos: Elon Musk Schedules ‘Blade Runner’ Inspired Truck Unveil for Nov. 21 B
Autos: Ford reveals electric Mustang with ‘stunning’ acceleration NN
Energy: Chesapeake Energy Plunges to 20-Year Low as Street Loses Faith B
Finance: Consumer Still Strong, Even With ‘Anxiety,’ LendingClub CEO Says B
Tech: Qualcomm stock spikes after licensing business propels earnings and revenue past estimates C

Corporate finance
SoftBank CEO says there will be no ‘rescue’ investments after WeWork debacle C
HP Confirms Xerox Takeover Offer, But Isn’t Ready to Say Yes B

Offbeat
How to apply for Global Entry C
Bill Gates says ‘I made a mistake’ meeting with convicted sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein C
Prehistoric ape from Germany was a pioneer of two-legged walking R

November 06 (Wednesday)

Markets
Stocks Are Soaring Because Supplies Are Limited B
Ready to Boost Stocks: Investors’ Multitrillion Cash Hoard W
Interest rates suddenly entered a new phase and they are moving higher thanks to possible trade deal C

Central banks
Fed’s Barkin: High Uncertainty May Be Damping Effectiveness of Fed Policy W

US
U.S. Job Openings Edged Lower W
Drop in Consumer-Goods Imports Points to Slower U.S. Growth W
Ahead of 2020, manufacturers are struggling in Rust Belt regions that helped Trump win last time C
Millennials Should Be Happy They Are Stuck Renting B

Europe
France to Set Quotas for Immigrant Visas W

Emerging
Brazil unveils reform package to tackle huge fiscal deficit R
Explainer: World’s biggest trade pact shapes up without India R
China’s Housing Market Is Finally Cooling. Some Homeowners Are Furious. W

US politics
McConnell does not expect possible Senate impeachment trial to lead to Trump’s ouster R
Trump ambassador changes testimony, admits telling Ukraine there would be no US aid without investigations C

Geopolitics & trade
China Insists Trump Give Up His Favorite Trade Weapon—Tariffs B
Iran further distances itself from 2015 deal by fueling Fordow centrifuges R
TikTok stresses its independence from China but U.S. lawmakers are unconvinced R

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg gets vote of confidence, offers to forgo bonuses amid 737 Max crisis C
FAANGs: With a Laser, Researchers Say They Can Hack Alexa, Google Home or Siri N

Corporate finance
Walgreens explores going private in what could be largest LBO in history C
Uber’s lockup expiration may be muted because a ton of shares are underwater C
WeWork still on life support, rivals say it must cut costs fast R
Muni Bonds Contain New Fine Print: Beware of Climate Change B

Offbeat
Jamie Dimon says Sen. Elizabeth Warren ‘vilifies successful people’ C
Ray Dalio Says the ‘World Has Gone Mad’ With So Much Free Money B

YRI
Daily Markets Overview

Dr Ed’s books on Amazon
Predicting the Markets
Stock Buybacks: The True Story
The Yield Curve: What Is It Really Predicting?

November 05 (Tuesday)

YRI
The stock market keeps setting new highs in a rally no one saw coming C
Actually we did in the following CNBC interviews:
Unprecedented market momentum could help drive stocks to all-time highs: Wall Street bull Ed Yardeni (12/27/18)
A contrary indicator suggests the market’s win streak is just beginning, Wall Street bull Edward Yardeni says (1/20)
Don’t listen to ‘alarmists’ over earnings slowdown, Ed Yardeni says it’s an ideal time to be in stocks (2/28)
Here’s how the S&P 500 gets to 3500 in 18 months: Yardeni (4/12)
Market will return to all-time highs with help from a group hit by the trade war, Wall Street bull Ed Yardeni predicts (5/18)
Stocks will soar 17% through next year, market bull Ed Yardeni predicts  (9/21)
A ‘market melt-up’ is becoming a real risk as stocks hit new highs, Wall Street bull Ed Yardeni warns (11/3)

Markets
Dow rips to a record high, now up nearly 18% on the year C
Don’t celebrate the Dow record too much, Morgan Stanley predicts dismal returns the next decade C

Central banks & financial stability
Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up B

US
Manufacturing Data Flash Warning Sign for U.S. Jobs BR
The Truth About Income Inequality W
Bank of America to hike minimum wage for all employees to $20 per hour a year ahead of schedule C
Stanford Tops Ranking of U.S. B-Schools, Dartmouth Hurtles to Second Spot B

Europe
Euro zone factories stuck in a slump as trade war still biting R
German manufacturing stuck in recession, factory job losses accelerate: PMI R
UK manufacturing decline slows after new Brexit stockpiling rush: PMI R

Japan
Japan October factory activity sinks to three-year low, orders fall – PMI R

China
China Oct. factory activity expands at fastest pace in over two years: Caixin PMI R
American Brands Aren’t Getting Any Love in China’s Singles’ Day B

US politics
Wall Street donors are so worried about Elizabeth Warren that they are snubbing Democrats in 2020 Senate races C
Trump will ask Supreme Court to take New York tax returns case after losing appeal C
Democratic groups launch $75 million digital ad effort to fight Trump R
House committees release first transcripts of closed-door Trump impeachment testimony R
Nancy Pelosi Is Worried 2020 Candidates Are on Wrong Track B

Geopolitics & trade
Iran launches more advanced machines to speed up nuclear enrichment: official R
U.S. targets Iranian top leader’s inner circle with new sanctions R
Iran Finds Itself in Crosshairs of Arab Protesters W

Industries & companies
Energy: An Energy Breakthrough Could Store Solar Power for Decades B
FAANGs: Amazon is responsible for most Big Tech job growth since 2000 C
Retail: Walmart appears to be gaining ground against Amazon C
Tech:  Microsoft CEO Nadella stands by $10 billion Pentagon contract win, even though some employees have protested C
Tech: Uber misses on riders, beats revenue estimates as lockup expiry looms R

Corporate finance
Give or take a trillion: Investors still in the dark on Saudi Aramco value R

Offbeat
Warren Buffett has $128 billion in cash to burn and analysts can’t figure out why he isn’t spending it C
‘I care’ — billionaire investor tears up talking about America, Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump C
Apple pledges $2.5 billion to fight California housing crisis R