What I Am Reading

November 2 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 30. Markets Stocks extend gains as yields slide, Dow jumps nearly 400 points | C The ‘Ozempic Effect’ on Wall Street Has Gone Overboard | W Central banks Fed Takes Heart in a Supply-Side Boom | W How Higher Interest Rates for Longer Can Be Good News for the Economy | W US Labor costs show surprise decline in the third quarter | C US weekly jobless claims rise moderately; productivity surges in Q3 | R The Way You Pay to Buy or Sell a Home Is About to Change | W Europe German power mix may get dirtier for 1st non-nuclear winter | R China China regulators probe liquidity stress that sent rates to record 50% – sources | R   Geopolitics & trade China, U.S. to Meet for Rare Nuclear Arms-Control Talks | W Putin withdraws Russia’s ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty | R US imposes sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia over war in Ukraine | R Russia’s Wagner Group May Provide Air Defense Weapon to Hezbollah, U.S. Intel Says | W How Hamas Defines Cease-Fire | W Industries & companies Autos: The UAW Beat Detroit. Tesla Will Be a Different Beast. | W Autos: Toyota Recalls More Than 1.8 Million RAV4 SUVs Over Battery Fire Risk | W Retail: Target CEO says shoppers are pulling back, even on groceries | C Corporate finance These Oil Giants Don’t Seem Tempted by Merger Mania | W Artificial Intelligence Biden AI executive order: Industry, civil rights, labor groups react | C Beyond markets Elon Musk told Joe Rogan he bought Twitter to stop ‘extinctionist’ mind virus | C Hunter Biden slams GOP, media for attacks on him and president | C

November 1 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Other Central Bankers & The MegaCap-8, Again Today, Melissa reviews how monetary policies are being conducted outside the US. Japan’s BOJ has given itself more latitude in policy decisions, retracting a commitment to retain its long-standing ultra-easy stance and widening its target interest-rate range. … China’s PBOC and central government have been working to stimulate its economy by numerous means. … Europe’s ECB finally paused its rate-hiking recently after a 10-hike streak and trimmed its balance-sheet assets; no more rate hikes or reductions are likely for a while. … Also: Joe updates data on the MegaCap-8 stocks’ growing share of the S&P 500. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 30. Markets Wall St holds gains as Fed keeps rates steady | R Wavering ‘Magnificent Seven’ draw bargain-hunters amid U.S. stock sell-off | R Why Investors Are Trading US Treasury Bonds, Spiking Volatility in Market | B Central banks Fed keeps rates unchanged, acknowledges economy is ‘strong’ | R Fed Holds Rates Steady but Keeps Door Open to Another Hike | W Fed meeting: Here’s what changed in the new statement | C 5 Key Takeaways From Fed November 2023 Decision | B US The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood?  | W Treasury details plans to step up size of bond sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates | C US Inflation Debt Sales Rise to Keep Pace With Treasury Market | B US job openings stay elevated, layoffs hit nine-month low | R US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise a Second Month to 9.6 Million | B China Beware a Chinese Fall Stall | W Industries & companies Autos: Toyota Gives Most U.S. Auto-Factory Workers 9% Pay Bump Following UAW Gains in Detroit | W Real Estate: How to Buy Real Estate: Creative Ways to Invest in Property Amid High Prices | B Tech: After a Boom and Bust, the Chip Industry Is Regaining Its Health | W Artificial Intelligence ‘Take Science Fiction Seriously’: World Leaders Sound Alarm on AI | W

October 31 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Trick Or Treat? Treat: Consumers’ soaring net worth since the pandemic has reduced their need to save, in our opinion. That might explain why consumer spending has been resilient despite hard-landers’ warnings that households were depleting their excess saving and would have to retrench by now. … Treat: Inflation is still on course to fall to the Fed’s 2.0% target. … Trick: The Treasury might spook investors again on Wednesday when it details its next round of financing needs. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 30. Markets Markets on board with Fed’s higher for longer policy, CNBC survey | C U.S. Treasury yields ahead of Fed meeting kick-off | C How This Year’s Hottest Investment Could End Up Costing You | W Global The U.S. and European Economies Are Diverging | W Central banks The Fed Can Wait | W US U.S. Home Prices Rose to Record in August | W What the rise of homeowners associations means for Americans | C 62% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck amid inflation | C Workers Keep Getting Big Raises. That’s an Issue for the Fed | W Wages boost US labor costs in third quarter | R China China’s Economy Shows Fresh Signs of Slowing | W Evergrande will struggle to revive its debt restructuring plan | R Tracking the emissions impact of China’s economic recovery | R Europe Euro zone inflation and growth fall as ECB hikes bite | R Eurozone Inflation Drops Sharply Amid Energy Deflation, Economic Contraction | W Geopolitics & trade The Latest Tech Caught in the U.S.-China Trade War: Lasers | W Israel Hits Hamas Tunnels as Ground Offensive Intensifies | W Democrats Risk Long-Lasting Rift Over Israel-Hamas War | W Industries & companies Autos: UAW: Winners and losers of 2023 talks with GM, Ford, Stellantis | C Autos: Three Young Activists Who Never Worked in an Auto Factory Helped Deliver Huge Win for the UAW | W Autos: Toyota Aims to Meet Hybrid Demand With New U.S. Plant Investment | W Commercial Real Estate: The Money Has Stopped Flowing in Commercial Real Estate | W Energy: Why some ‘clean’ hydrogen hubs in the U.S. plan to use natural gas | C Tech: Apple announces new M3 chips, cuts price of entry-level MacBook Pro | C Tech: Microsoft’s Hotly Anticipated Generative AI Work Assistant Set to Debut | W Corporate finance Zombie firm bankruptcies amid Fed interest rate hikes | C US seeks to block JetBlue’s Spirit Airlines deal at trial | R Why Exxon and Chevron’s Deals Leave Investors Cold | W Beyond markets Sam Bankman-Fried has one more shot at avoiding prison as trial wraps | C

October 30 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Geopolitics, GDP & Inflation We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. … Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring unsettling uncertainty to the stock market against a backdrop of well known headwinds and a troubled Chinese economy. … And: We review the latest inflation news. We don’t expect the Fed to surprise markets with a rate hike this week. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 23. Markets Where Is the Stock Market Headed? Big Money Pros Weigh In. | BR Middle East War Could Cause Oil Price Shock, World Bank Warns | N The Big Bond Market Event Wednesday Is at Treasury, Not the Fed | B US ‘term premium’ shock may need T-bill surprise | R Should You Buy Bonds Now? Yes, Here’s Why. | BR Investors Are Worried About Government Spending. That’s No Reason to Avoid Bonds. | BR Central banks Higher Bond Yields Could End the Fed’s Historic Rate Rises | W Fed’s Forecasts Look to Fairy Tales, One Economist Says | BR Does Strong Growth Fuel Inflation? Fed Debates Whether Old Model Still Applies | W Middle-Class Americans Are Rattled by Fed’s Fight Against Inflation | B US The Sales Pitch for an 8% Mortgage: Buy Now, Refinance Later—for Free | W US second home sales slide in pandemic-era vacation hot spots | R What ‘radically different’ wage growth forecast for 2024 means for you | C Workers Are Doing Less Work for the Same Pay | W Americans Can’t Stop Spending. Five Reasons Why. | W Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest. | W Mental Health Issues Are Growing. They Could Hobble the Economy | BR China China’s Age of Malaise | The New Yorker How Far Is China’s Slowdown Spreading? Ask a Dairy Farmer 6,000 Miles Away | W For China, Bullying Apple Suppliers Could Backfire Badly | W Europe German economy shrinks slightly in Q3 | R Geopolitics & trade American power: indispensable or ineffective? | E Israel-Hamas War News: Airstrike in Syria, Clashes in West bank, Gaza Ground War | B Industries & companies Autos: U.A.W. Says It Aims to Organize Nonunion Auto Plants | N Autos: UAW-Ford deal includes $8.1B in investment, $5,000 ratification bonus | C Autos: Detroit Is Paying Up to End the UAW Strike. Now Carmakers Will Live With the Costs. | W Health Care: Insurers Spar With Biden Administration Over Coverage for Mental-Health Care | W Pharma: Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro Drug Has Big Potential. How to Play the Stock. | BR Tech: Meta Pauses Ads for Users Under 18 in Europe as It Rolls Out Subscriptions | W Corporate finance Realty Income to Buy Spirit Realty Capital in $9.3 Billion Deal | W Artificial Intelligence Biden unveils U.S. government’s first-ever AI executive order | C Biden’s AI Executive Order Imposes Safety, Security Measures on Emerging Tech | B Can ChatGPT Replace Your Financial Adviser? Not Yet. But Wait. | W Crypto The Hunt for Crypto’s Most Famous Fugitive. ‘Everyone Is Looking for Me.’ | W

October 28 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Spending, China & Robots Is the consumer spending pendulum swinging back to bingeing on goods from splurging on services? Jackie sees a few nascent signs pointing to that possibility. … Also: The Chinese government has been trying to pull China’s economy up by its bootstraps with new infrastructure projects, but critics say the initiatives are too small to make much difference. Property developers remain distressed, and economic activity is likely to remain anemic. … And: In our Disruptive Technologies spotlight are humanoid robots. We look at how they’re being deployed today and what they may be used for in the future. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 23. Markets Dow drops more than 350 points to end brutal week, S&P 500 closes in correction territory | C Wall St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy Treasury market as Fed looms | R Market Turns Vicious on Profit Misses in Tough Earnings Season | B US The shaky stock market is making Americans feel uneasy | NN Mortgage Rates for US Homes Are Surging Toward 8% and Crushing Market | B Americans’ median net worth by age | C Conservatives Won the Fight for House Speaker. Did They Also Put the GOP Majority at Risk? | W Grand Old Party: How Aging Makes You More Conservative | W With TikTok, Gen Z Is the Master of Comedic Deflection | B Europe Italy to raise taxes for flat owners doing multiple short-term rentals | R China What China’s slow-motion property crisis means for the global economy | C   Geopolitics & trade Israel Says It Has Killed a Planner of the Oct. 7 Attacks | W Israel-Gaza War: Israel Ratchets Up Ground Operations After Heavy Bombardments | B Will the Israel-Hamas War Escalate? Iran, Hezbollah and Syria Pose Risk | B China, U.S. Look to a Biden-Xi Summit While Wrestling Tensions | W US halts exports of most civilian firearms for 90 days | R Industries & companies Autos: Toyota, the World’s Biggest Carmaker, Made a Huge Bet on Tech. It Went Wrong Fast. | W Artificial Intelligence Stacking Boxes? Treating Cancer? AI Needs to Learn Physics First | W Corporate finance Exxon and Chevron Megadeals Reveal Why Days of Easy Oil Are Over | B Beyond markets Elon Musk’s Outlook on Our Future Turns Dour | W Taylor Swift has entered her billionaire era | C UChicago psychologist: Thinking in foreign language is good for brain | C

October 27 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Spending, China & Robots Is the consumer spending pendulum swinging back to bingeing on goods from splurging on services? Jackie sees a few nascent signs pointing to that possibility. … Also: The Chinese government has been trying to pull China’s economy up by its bootstraps with new infrastructure projects, but critics say the initiatives are too small to make much difference. Property developers remain distressed, and economic activity is likely to remain anemic. … And: In our Disruptive Technologies spotlight are humanoid robots. We look at how they’re being deployed today and what they may be used for in the future. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 23. Markets Global bond rout looks ‘tremendously dangerous’ for stocks, hedge fund manager warns | C Global Global business cycle is in transition | R Central banks European Central Bank Ends Record Run of Rate Increases | W BOJ meets as rising yields, inflation test cap | R Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% as expected in September; spending tops estimate | C Inflation Trends Likely to Keep Fed Rate-Hike Pause on Track | W US U.S. Economy Grew a Strong 4.9%, Driven by Consumer Spree That May Not Last | W New Speaker Mike Johnson’s To-Do List: A Looming Funding Deadline and Israel, Ukraine Aid | W Donald Trump’s reign of tariffs  | The Hill Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest. | W Geopolitics & trade U.S. Strikes Syrian Militias as Israel Makes Fresh Incursion Into Gaza | W China, U.S. Look to a Biden-Xi Summit While Wrestling Tensions | W Industries & companies Autos: Ford’s Cost Problem Isn’t Just About EVs | W Consumer: Amazon Beefs Up Bottom Line as AI Battle Shapes Up | W Financials: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to Sell One Million Shares | W Pharma: Healthcare companies counter investor worries over Wegovy effect | R Retail: Shein to sell co-branded Forever 21 clothes online | C Corporate finance Last resort of bankruptcy is rising for small businesses across U.S. | C Climate The Latest On Global Warming Is … There Is No Global Warming | I&I

October 26 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Spending, China & Robots Is the consumer spending pendulum swinging back to bingeing on goods from splurging on services? Jackie sees a few nascent signs pointing to that possibility. … Also: The Chinese government has been trying to pull China’s economy up by its bootstraps with new infrastructure projects, but critics say the initiatives are too small to make much difference. Property developers remain distressed, and economic activity is likely to remain anemic. … And: In our Disruptive Technologies spotlight are humanoid robots. We look at how they’re being deployed today and what they may be used for in the future. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 23. Markets Stock Market News Today: Dow Opens Higher, Meta Stock Price Falls; Amazon Earnings in Focus | W Treasury just dropped a financial bomb, but Bidenomics means the worst is yet to come | FO With Interest Rates Up, Get Ready for Financial Drama | W US U.S. Economy Grew at 4.9% Rate This Summer, Powered by Fast-Spending Americans | W Consumers power US economy in third quarter | R What Will the Economy Do for an Encore? | W Recession vs. ‘richsession: Why America’s rich face economic headwinds | C Trump’s Bad Week: Ex-Advisers Line Up Against Him | W China Xi Jinping Is Looking for Someone to Blame for China’s Property Bust | W Geopolitics & trade Investing in Space: The Pentagon sizes up China’s military strength | C Industries & companies Autos: Toyota Chairman Says People Are Finally Seeing the Reality About EVs | W Energy: Are iron-flow batteries the solution to variable renewables? | R Energy: High hopes for a smaller but more focused hydrogen economy | R Technology This company envisions a future where humanoid robots are as ubiquitous as smartphones | NN Corporate finance Jeep Maker Stellantis Bets on a Chinese EV Startup, but Is It the Right One? | W Climate Europe’s wind power goal hits new snag: security | R Beyond markets CEO Morning Routines Are Bananas. So I Tried a Few. | W

October 25 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings Here & There The global economy is still growing despite geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds, though the pace of growth is slow, which October’s global PMI data confirm. … Looking at stock market data globally, we find strong forward revenues, earnings, and profit margin data for the All Country World MSCI, mostly attributable to the US MSCI; the data for Emerging Markets MSCI aren’t as strong. … In the US, record-high weekly forward revenues and forward earnings suggest the same for Q3’s results. … Also: Joe reports that analysts’ estimate revisions reflect equal numbers of rising and falling estimates. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 23. Markets Your ‘Set It and Forget It’ 401(k) Made You Rich. No More. | W How the Highest Bond Yields in 16 Years Could Chill the Hot U.S. Economy | W ‘Tipping point’ in bond shock? | R Analysis: China holds the key to Hong Kong’s shrinking stock market | R Central banks Strongest US Economic Growth Since 2021 Puts Fed in Tough Spot | B What Can the Fed Do About the Deficit? Nothing | W Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts | C Jim Cramer says hold out on buying until next interest rate hike | C US New Normal or No Normal? How Economists Got It Wrong for 3 Years. | N Beef prices are at record highs, and your steak is becoming pricier | C How Did Biden Manage To Lose $300 Billion? | Issues & Insights The Economic Forces Pushing Both Parents to Work | City Journal China China’s new bonds to help economic recovery, official says, as budget deficit rises | R Exclusive: China’s cabinet curbs debt growth in 12 “high risk” regions – sources | R China Signals No Tolerance for Sharp Slowdown With Rare Aid | B Geopolitics & trade Hamas: US Presses Gulf Allies To Help Stem Group’s Fundraising | B Israel-Hamas war: Economists fear disruption if conflict not contained | C Israel-Hamas: IMF’s Georgieva Says Mideast War Brings More Jitters: FII Update | B Weapons Flood Israel’s West Bank, Fueling Fears of New War Front | W Industries & companies Autos: UAW Calls Strike on One of GM’s Largest and Most-Profitable Factories | W Autos: Honda, GM scrap plan to co-develop cheaper EVs | R Energy: Exxon, Chevron Look to the West in an Increasingly Uncertain World | W Climate Why the Shine Has Come Off Clean-Energy Stocks | W

October 23 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ‘Dangerous Times’ The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects. We’re suspending our year-end target for the S&P 500 after it fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday in response to the geopolitical risks. We expect it to breach that level this week even if the bond yield declines. Yet geopolitical crises do tend to present long-term buying opportunities in stocks. The escalation of hostilities we expect prompts us to raise our odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 again, now to 35% from 30%. … Also: We update the bond market’s supply/demand situation, discuss the consumer-spending-employment spiral, and review the movie “Past Lives” (+). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 16. Markets Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner | W Why High Yields Make Bonds Better Investments Now | N Morning Bid: Awaiting the bond-bashing abating | R   Central banks Where’s the Recession? The Inverted Yield Curve Is Looking Like a Mistake. | BR   US Housing market is painful, ugly, anxious with 8% high rate | C Rising Home Prices Can Be Bad for Retirees | BR This Real Estate Market Looks Distressed. Home Prices Are Already Falling. | BR Food Is on Sale Again. You Might Still Have Sticker Shock. | W America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive. | W House Republicans say the speaker race stalemate is “embarrassing” | C   Europe As U.S. Debt Surges, Europe Brings Its Own Under Control | W Marine Le Pen poses a greater threat than Giorgia Meloni | E   China China Tightens Controls on Graphite. The Hunt Is On for New Supplies. | BR   Industries & companies Airlines: Airlines, Regulators Weigh More Cockpit Safety Alerts After Close Calls on Runways | W Autos: Buy BMW Stock. Shares Could Rise 41% on Its Stealth EV Program. | BR Banks: Why America’s banks need more capital | E Media: Taylor Swift Concert Film and ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Top Weekend Box Office | W Retail: How Walmart became America’s largest grocer | C   Geopolitics & trade Israel Intensifies Bombing on Multiple Fronts, Prepares for Gaza Ground Operation | W Video Analysis Shows Gaza Hospital Hit By Failed Rocket Meant for Israel | W Only America can save Israel and Gaza from greater catastrophe | E Israel’s four unpalatable options for Gaza’s long-term future | E Russia’s Gazprom to supply extra gas to Hungary and China this year | R Xi Jinping wants to be loved by the global south | E Corporate finance Paramount, Shari Redstone might have missed deal window | C Artificial Intelligence How Does AI ‘Think’? We Are Only Starting to Understand That | W How to make Britain’s health service AI-ready | E Climate The unspoken environmental impact of meat: Hogging all the land. | Vox

October 21 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bank Earnings, CO2 & The Oceans Three big banks have produced Q3 earnings surprises, beating consensus expectations and allaying fears about nonperforming real estate loans, declining deposits, and the pace of consumer spending. Jackie summarizes the key takeaways from the conference calls of JPMorgan, Bank of America, and PNC Financial Services, including what proposed Basel III Endgame regulations might mean for each. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: The ocean may hold the key to slowing climate change. Researchers in startups and academia are finding ways to ramp up the ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 16. Markets Dow closes nearly 300 points lower after 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007 | C Bond Market’s Bad Tidings Start to Overwhelm Miracle Stock Rally | B Buying a burst bubble, bruised bond bulls wince | R   Central banks Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause | W Transcript: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook | W What Is ‘Normal’ for Interest Rates? | Morningstar Global What landing? Global economy’s twin engines rev up | R US Home Sales at Lowest Point Since 2010 as High Mortgage Rates Squeeze Market | W US budget gap soars to $1.7 trillion, largest outside COVID era | R The Federal Deficit Is Growing. This Is Why. | N   Geopolitics & trade Gaza Strip Future: US, Israel Weigh a Future Without Hamas | B Two American Hostages Released as U.S. Pressures Israel to Delay Gaza Invasion | W Miners race to realise graphite projects as China controls exports | R Biden seeks $105 billion for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, border | C U.S. and Europe Struggle to Put Trump-Era Tariffs Behind Them | W Industries & companies Autos: Tesla stock ends the week down 15%, the worst performance of the year | C Autos: UAW strikes: Union’s Fain says ‘more to be won’ despite record offers | C Consumer: Amazon Confronts a New Rival: TikTok | W