What I Am Reading

October 28 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 24. Markets Why Stock Multiples Say the Market Could Continue to Drop | Morningstar The bear hasn’t broken passive yet | FT Central banks ECB Raises Rates by 0.75 Point to Highest in More Than a Decade | W Japan to keep ultra-low interest rates, defy global tightening trend | R US U.S. Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Highest in More Than 20 Years | W U.S. Economy Grew 2.6% in Third Quarter, GDP Report Shows | W U.S. economy rebounds in Q3 on boost from trade, but demand stalling | R Analysis: How Congress might look for Biden post midterms: The good, bad, and the ugly | R Trump loses court bid to block Congress from getting tax returns | C   Geopolitics & trade Inside the Secret Prisoner Swap That Splintered the U.S. and China | W Industries & companies Consumer Discretionary: Amazon predicts sales growth slowdown for holidays, crushing shares | R Technology Amazon to open Kuiper internet satellite factory | C   Beyond markets Buffalo Bills unveil first design images of their new $1.4 billion stadium | C

October 27 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 24. Markets Big Tech tumbles as results set off alarm bells | R Central banks Powell again faces political pressure as worries mount over economy | C Energy & climate Europe, Once Fearing Gas Rationing This Winter, Has a Glut | W Column: Europe’s gas inventories, the risk from complacency | R Biden Team Reworks Plan for Russia Oil-Price Cap as Markets Sour | B Column: China still added to crude oil inventories despite refining, fuel export surge | R Hydropower Production Falls as Dams From China to US Hit by Sweeping Drought | B US I New-Home Sales Fell Nearly 11% in September Amid Rising Interest Rates | W U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 | R Zillow (Z) Lays Off 300 Employees as US Housing Market Slows | B US II Ahead of Midterms, How Bad Is the Economy, Really? | W Biden has ambitious infrastructure goals. Made-in-America rules could slow them. | Vox Unmitigated gall of Joe Biden claiming that he ‘lowered’ debt | P Europe Germany to legalize cannabis use for recreational purposes | R Germany, France Divided Over Energy Crisis and China | W China Xi Jinping’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets | B Geopolitics & trade China Wants to ‘Speed Up’ Its Seizure of Taiwan, US’s Blinken Says | B Opinion | Biden Just Clobbered China’s Chip Industry | N Ukrainians hold out in east, prepare battle for Kherson | R Industries & companies Autos: Exclusive: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims | R Autos: Ford to Take $2.7 Billion Charge on Argo Driverless Startup Stake | W Media: Disney CEO Bob Chapek Wants to Customize Fan Experiences | W Tech: Microsoft’s Struggles Enter the Metaverse | W Corporate finance U.S. SEC adopts executive compensation clawback rules | R Accounting Errors to Cost Executives Their Bonuses Under SEC Rule | W Beyond markets U.S. Army struggles to find recruits its needs to win fight of future | C A Possible Covid, Flu and RSV ‘Tripledemic’ Has Doctors Worried. What to Know | W Brands have fled Kanye. What about his music career? | NN

October 26 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ECB On Thursday, Inflation On Friday ECB hawks will be squawking at their meeting on Thursday. Fed hawks will be all over the critical US inflation data that comes out on Friday: The Employment Cost Index may suggest a peaking of wage inflation, and September’s PCED may reflect a declining headline rate (albeit rising core rate, as did September’s CPI, due to services inflation). Today, we examine the significance of each. … Also: We drill down to inflation within services industries, where the worst of it now roosts. … And: Once again, the ECB is on a mission and vowing to “do whatever it takes” to achieve it. This time, the goal is smothering Europe’s inflation fire even if GDP is dampened in the process. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 25. Markets The bear market blues: a diagnosis for our times | R Opinion | Why OPEC Is Cutting Oil Production (and Why There’s Not Much the U.S. Can Do About It) | N Central banks Fed’s Powell, on eve of next rate hike, urged to protect jobs | R The Age of Inflation: Easy Money, Hard Choices Global Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll | R US Leading Economic Index: What it is, why it’s flashing a recession warning | C A ‘catastrophe’ is coming for economy: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh | C Home prices cooled at a record pace in August, S&P Case-Shiller says | C Poor report cards at U.S. companies fan recession fears | R Surging Rents Push More Americans to Live With Roommates or Parents | W Health-Insurance Inflation Is Poised to Drop Sharply | W Steering the conversation toward the economy could actually help Democrats | The Hill China Fire Sale! China’s “Warren Buffett” Races To Sell Assets | FO Europe New PM Rishi Sunak pledges to lead Britain out of economic crisis | R Geopolitics & trade Russian Oligarchs Obscure Their Wealth Through Secretive Isle of Man Network | W   Industries & companies Airlines: Airlines have the passengers. Now they need the planes | C Media: Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show | R Corporate finance Intel Prices Widely Anticipated IPO for Self-Driving Car Unit Mobileye | W Covid Men Died From Covid-19 at Much Higher Rate Than Women in Pandemic’s First Year | W People who had mild Covid had increased risk of blood clots: UK study | C Beyond markets Remote work isn’t going away. What’s happening to extra office space? | Vox

October 25 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Your Wish Is Our Command Our Monday webinars often don’t allow time to answer all your questions. So today’s Morning Briefing is devoted to a few recent ones. … We don’t expect much economic impact when the drawdown of the SPR ends, as we don’t foresee gasoline prices spiking as a result since tapping the SPR didn’t contribute much to the decline in prices. … Also: We counter our skeptics who expect a rampant recession, explaining why we see greater odds (60%) that the gently rolling recession already underway will continue. … And: The strong dollar should peak when monetary policymakers’ hawkishness does, to the relief of US companies with foreign-derived sales and earnings. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 25. Markets U.S. yields climb as hawkish Fed concerns outweigh weaker economic data | R Shares in Chinese Companies Crash After Xi Jinping Stacks Party With Allies | W Column: Oil investors on defensive as recession forces intensify | R Charts suggest the U.S. dollar could be peaking, Jim Cramer says | C Global Global Economic Growth Is Weighed Down by Inflation, Rising Interest Rates | W Energy President Biden forcefully responds to Saudis on oil | The Hill Biden’s SPR follies will hurt Americans and damage our national security | P Factbox: How is Germany replacing Russian gas? | R The Hidden Corner of the Energy Market Where Russian Exports to Europe Are Booming | W US The economy may be in better shape than you think…for now | NN What the state of the U.S. economy means for the midterm elections | The Week As They Wholly Redefine ‘Inflation,’ Republicans Hand Dems the Tools to Shoot Down Tax Cuts | FO Inflation is dominant topic on earnings calls. What execs are saying | C Opinion | The Way Los Angeles Is Trying to Solve Homelessness Is ‘Absolutely Insane’ | N Mortgages Sold to Fannie, Freddie Should Use More Than FICO Scores, Regulator Says | W Europe Rishi Sunak to be Britain’s new prime minister as rival Penny Mordaunt drops out | C Industries & companies Autos: Tesla Cuts Prices in China as Costs Fall, Competition Heats Up | W Financials: Banks Are Offering 4.5% CDs—Just Not to Regular Customers | W Tech: Intel CEO Calls New U.S. Restrictions on Chip Exports to China Inevitable | W Geopolitics & trade Russia could plan ‘dirty bomb’ pretext, Western countries say | R How Wikipedia is documenting suspicious Russian oligarch deaths. | slate.com Chinese intelligence officers charged in Huawei prosecution obstruction | C Beyond markets U.S. student test results show toll of pandemic lockdowns on learning | R

October 24 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Great Monetary Policy Reversal Both the bearish and bullish cases for the stock market currently boil down to how the economy responds to the tectonic monetary policy adjustment from unconventionally ultra-easy to conventionally tight, a.k.a. “The Great Monetary Policy Reversal.” … We describe both cases, pointing out that bullish could morph into bearish if services inflation doesn’t abate. We’re in the minority as glass-half-full bulls, counting on a muted rolling recession, with rolling inflation, passing through the economy and out. … Also: Fed officials may be dialing back their hawkishness, which would support the bullish case. We think monetary policy is decidedly restrictive now already. … And: Midterm elections could energize Santa Claus rally. … Plus: Dr Ed reviews “Eiffel” (+). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 17. Markets Dollar see saws on suspected yen intervention, shares rally | R China’s Yuan Is Weakening Against the Dollar. It’s Easy to Misread Why. | BR Palladium Is Outshining Gold and Silver. Why Its Price Could Keep Rising. | BR Central banks What CEOs Are Saying: The Fed ‘Should Look Out the Front Windshield’ | W Even super-tight policy is not bringing down prices | E Higher Interest Rates Can Take a Long Time to Bring Down Inflation | W Energy & climate              France’s Nuclear Reactors Malfunction as Energy Crisis Bites | W India’s next green revolution | E Buy BP and Exxon Stock. They Have a Surprisingly Green Future. | BR   US Early Earnings Reports Worry Investors Already Battered by Stock Selloff | W A global house-price slump is coming | E Companies Take Different Strategies to Navigate High Inflation | W U.S. cities where starter homes are affordable | C Europe Welcome to Britaly | E China China reports third-quarter GDP grew by 3.9%, beating expectations | C China Economy Shows Mixed Recovery as Industrial Activity Climbs | B Xi Jinping leaves no doubt who is in charge of China | E Xi Jinping has no interest in succession planning | E China’s Xi Claims Third Term as Communist Party Leader | W China names Xi Jinping loyalists for core leadership group | C Will the Chinese of tomorrow live like the Spaniards of today? | E Geopolitics & trade Russia hits Ukraine homes, evacuates Kherson, warns of escalation | C Two Koreas exchange warning shots near maritime border amid tensions | C Industries & companies Autos: Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take. | BR Financials: Big Banks Can Weather a Recession. Here Are the Top Stocks to Buy. | BR Media: Netflix experiments with Knives Out sequel, but sticks with limited theater runs | C Tech: How U.S. Uses Supply Chain Sway to Throttle China’s Chip Development | W

October 22 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. … And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 17. Markets Dow climbs more than 700 points on Friday as Wall Street clinches its best week since June | C U.S. yields slide from multi-year highs on hopes of Fed pivot | R The $1 Million Amazon Conflict: Washington’s Ethics Czars Struggle to Enforce Stock-Trading Laws | W 2-year Treasury yield falls below 4.5% as traders weigh a potential slowdown in Fed hikes | C Central banks Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes | W Why Japan Stands Virtually Alone in Keeping Interest Rates Ultralow | NYT Energy France joins other European countries in pulling out of treaty protecting energy investments | R Europe’s Energy Shock Spurs Rethink of Liberalized Gas Markets | W Please, someone: hit the brakes on Biden’s gas and energy nonsense | P US Inflation is not becoming ’embedded’ in economy, Yellen says | R Burnout at work is getting worse, according to new data | Vox U.S. Deficit Shrank Last Fiscal Year, but Is Poised to Widen as Economy Slows | W Student loan forgiveness: President Biden says 22 million people have signed up | C Europe Boris Johnson’s Potential Return Shakes Up Race for U.K. Prime Minister | W China China’s Decade of Change Under Xi Jinping, in Nine Charts | W Industries & companies Retail: How Lululemon competes against Athleta, Alo, Gymshark, Nike and Adidas | C Beyond markets Cases of BQ.1, BQ.1.1 COVID variants double in U.S. as Europe warns of rise | R Surge in Pediatric Respiratory Viruses, Including RSV, Strains Children’s Hospitals | W CDC may use oral polio vaccine for first time in 20 years to halt New York outbreak | C

October 21 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. … And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 17. Markets Big News for Investors: TINA is Dead | Morningstar Oil near flat as inflation concerns contend with potential quarantine easing in China | R Central banks The Fed, Staring Down Two Big Choices, Charts an Aggressive Path | N Businesses Expect Economy to Weaken, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W Fed’s Harker sees ‘lack of progress’ on inflation, expects aggressive rate hikes ahead | C Fed may have to slow or stop balance sheet trimming in 2023, Barclays says | R Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Why I fear the Fed may be overdoing it Cramer: Earnings reports show the Fed is making progress on inflation | C Global Sanctions on Russia aluminum could hurt global supply chains: Analysts | C US U.S. Home Sales Drop for Eighth Straight Month in September | W Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September | C Jobless Claims Fell Last Week in Still-Tight Labor Market | W An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead | C College Enrollment Declines Again Though Online Schools, HBCUs See Increases | W Container imports to Los Angeles and Long Beach are plummeting China Why Another Xi Jinping Term Might Be in U.S.’s Interest | W China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S. Is It Ready for Battle? | W Europe Truss Defied the Markets, and They Ruthlessly Sealed Her Fate | N Who will replace Truss as UK prime minister? Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson? | R U.K. Government Is High-Profile Casualty in World of Higher Borrowing Costs | W Japan Japan’s inflation hits 8-year high in test of BOJ’s dovish policy | R   Geopolitics & trade Iran Is Training Russian Drone Pilots in Crimea to Aid Moscow’s War Effort, U.S. Says | W Industries & companies Airlines: At American Airlines, First Class Out, Business Class In for International Trips | W Airlines: Why cheap airfare is so hard to find this year | C Airlines: Travel Demand Remains Strong, Airlines Say | W Autos: Elon Musk Calls Tesla ‘Recession-Resilient’ as Wall Street Eyes Demand | W Autos: GM’s 2024 GMC Sierra EV offers electric truck alternative to Hummer | C Railroads: Union Pacific Profit Rises 13% as Railroads Benefit From Higher Freight Rates | W Retail: Second Amazon Style apparel store officially opens | Chain Store Age Tech: Apple Is an Ad Company Now | WIRED Tech: Chip Maker TSMC Weighs Expansion in Japan to Reduce Geopolitical Risk | W Tech: Facebook shuttle bus drivers face layoffs as Meta slashes costs | C Beyond markets What Have Workers Done with the Time Freed up by Commuting Less? | NY Fed Ask an AI Art Generator for Any Image. The Results Are Amazing—and Terrifying. | W

October 20 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. … And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 17. Markets Japanese yen hits 150 against the U.S. dollar | C Central banks BOJ conducts emergency bond buying to underpin debt market, but yields keep rising | R Japan ramps up intervention threats after yen slides past key 150 level | R Energy Factbox: Europe’s alternatives if Russia shuts off gas supply | R America’s new nuclear power industry has a Russian problem | R Biden says oil companies should prioritize lowering prices over stock buybacks | C US GOP holds big leads on key economic issues ahead of the November elections, CNBC survey shows | C China China’s Surveillance State Pushes Deeper Into Citizens’ Lives | W Europe UK PM Liz Truss locked in Downing Street talks as political crisis escalates | C Geopolitics & trade Ukrainians Urged to Ration Electricity as Russian Missiles Target Energy Infrastructure | W U.S., Europe Struggle to Keep Iran’s Drones From Russian Military | W Industries & companies Autos: Biden administration awards $2.8 billion in grants for electric vehicle battery manufacturing | C Autos: Elon Musk says Tesla is ‘pedal to the metal’ even in recession | C Pharma: Drugmakers Look to Limit Medicare’s New Power to Negotiate Lower Drug Prices | W Beyond markets Trump’s company faces criminal tax trial as his legal woes mount | R Toxic Workplaces Are Bad for Mental and Physical Health, Surgeon General Says | W

October 19 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Mid-Terms, Earnings & Commodities Octobers tend to turn out decent returns during mid-term election years. Twelve bear markets have met their demise during October, often setting the stage for Santa Claus rallies. … Q3 earnings season has stumbled out of the gate, but stocks have rallied anyway. We look at which sectors and industries benefited the most and where estimate-cutting industry analysts are cutting the most. … Also: Melissa discusses how recent news from China and Europe has been affecting commodities prices. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 17. Markets Stocks Notch Second Day of Gains | W Biden to Sell More Oil From Strategic Reserve to Keep Gas Prices in Check | W Central banks Fed’s Bostic: U.S. needs to work through labor market “shuffle and churn” | R ECB set to warn of risks in its non-binding opinion on Spanish tax proposal, sources say | R Energy EU Seeks Power to Set Emergency Cap on Gas Prices | W French Protests Highlight Pressure on European Leaders From Energy Crisis | W Biden to lay out plan to complete emergency oil sales, support U.S. production | R Fashion Industry Gets Torn by Europe’s Soaring Energy Bills | W US Inflation Causes IRS to Raise Tax Brackets, Standard Deduction by 7% | W Currency hit to N. American companies seen ‘bad’ after rough Q2 -report | R Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian | W China Xi Jinping’s Ideological Ambition Challenges China’s Economic Prospects | W   Geopolitics & trade Russian commander admits situation is ‘tense’ for his forces in Ukraine | R Industries & companies Autos: Rolls-Royce has over 300 orders for its $413,000 Spectre electric vehicle | C Financials: Goldman Shuffle Aims to Reduce Reliance on M&A | W Materials: EXCLUSIVE Glencore delivers Russian-origin aluminum into LME system -sources | R Media: Netflix Gains 2.4 Million New Subscribers, Reversing Trend | W

October 18 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Going Fishing Our bond market analysis suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield might peak at 4.00%-4.25%, probably in November after the Fed raises the federal funds rate by 75bps and possibly in anticipation of one final 75bps hike in December that puts the terminal federal funds rate at 4.50%-4.75%. … Our stock market outlook involves the S&P 500 remaining in a volatile trading range between 3666 and 4305 for the rest of this year. … Also: Why hasn’t the labor-force participation rate snapped back to its pre-pandemic levels now that the pandemic has abated? Melissa explores various reasons. … And: She examines trends perpetuating today’s extreme labor shortages. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 17. Markets U.S. Stocks Jump, With Dow Up About 550 Points | W Energy U.S. Permian oil production forecast to hit record in November -EIA | R White House Planning Oil Reserve Release Announcement This Week | B Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe’s coasts unable to unload | R New England Risks Winter Blackouts as Gas Supplies Tighten | W Exclusive: Exxon exits Russia empty-handed with oil project ‘unilaterally terminated’ | R US US Recession Forecast Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden Before Midterms | B Democrats Spent $2 Trillion to Save the Economy. They Don’t Want to Talk About It. | N Mark Mobius Warns US Interest Rates Will Hit 9% If Inflation Persists | B JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Trims Risk as He Turns More Wary on Economy | B Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says the U.S. consumer is healthy | C Europe UK Prime Minister Truss says ‘sorry’ for mistakes, but ‘I’m sticking around’ | R Emerging China Abruptly Delays GDP Release During Communist Party Conference | W China’s Xi Jinping Likely to Pack Party Leadership With Allies in Show of Strength | W Warren Buffet bails as Chinese economy flounders, tensions rise | P Asia could stand out from economic doom and gloom next year: economists | C Geopolitics & trade US’s Blinken Says China Wants to Seize Taiwan on ‘Much Faster Timeline’ | B U.S. condemns ‘war crimes’ after Russia drone attack hits Kyiv apartment block | R Marine Le Pen Wants France to Chart Its Own Course Between U.S. and Russia | W The string of mysterious deaths among businessmen in Putin’s Russia, explained | Vox Industries & companies Autos: Are electric vehicles really better? | The Week Autos: GM’s Cadillac Celestiq EV costs $300,000 and is customizable | C Media: Netflix Seeks Ways to Get Subscribers to Return After Visits Decline | W Tech: We need to keep Big Tech strong — so it can keep America strong | P Wireless: A New Space Race Targets the Smartphone | W Wireless: Why smartphones are getting cheaper in the CPI | C Technology Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill In for Scarce Workers | W Corporate finance Regulators should finally require some transparency of large private firms | The Hill Kanye West to Buy Parler, a Libertarian Social-Media Platform, Company Says | W Beyond markets The NFL is a ticking time bomb. Congress could set it off. | MSNBC Despite What the Experts Told You, This Was Never ‘Inflation’ | FO Many Americans Ignore Covid Boosters as Winter, Variants Loom | W