What I Am Reading

November 14 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Relevant Matters Today, we focus our observations on earnings, valuation, and inflation. … S&P 500 companies’ collective Q3 earnings, forward earnings, and forward revenues all stand at record highs. But analysts’ earnings estimates for future quarters have been dropping. … There’s not always a neat inverse correlation between stock market valuations and bond yields. One reason: The MegaCap-8 stocks represent an outsized chunk of the S&P 500’s P/E; but with less leverage than most companies, interest rates affect them less. … Our moderating inflation outlook suggests no more federal funds rate hikes this tightening round; we examine some of the data it reflects. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 13. Markets European stocks up ahead of U.S. inflation data | R Central banks UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession | C US CPI Report Shows Inflation Cooled to 3.2% in November | W Consumer spending fell in October, according to new CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor tracking card transactions | C Earnings Estimates Are Falling. These Two Companies Are Shouldering the Blame. | W With Interest Rates Above 9%, Small Businesses Slam the Brakes | W House Speaker Johnson predicts ‘bipartisan agreement’ on two-step government funding plan | C Moody’s warning on the massive U.S. debt burden has turned into a nonevent | C The Trillion-Dollar Win Hiding in Your Mortgage | W Europe Euro zone Q3 GDP shrinks, but employment rises | R Europe primed for industrial reboot after key power price deals | R China Why Xi Can No Longer Brag About the Chinese Economy | W Exclusive: China orders local governments to cut exposure to public-private projects as debt risks rise | R Geopolitics & trade Israel-Hamas war: Data shows human cost of conflict through the years | C Industries & companies Autos: Automakers’ drive to avoid China’s EV rare earth dominance gathers speed | R Energy: Why oil companies Shell and BP are building solar on farmland | C Retail: Home Depot earnings beat, but retailer offers a tepid outlook as sales slide | C Technology New Breed of Supercomputer Aims for the Two Quintillion Mark | W Corporate finance Chevron takeover of Hess resurrects multi-billion dollar tax shield | R Beyond markets Ultra-Processed Food: What We Know About the Potential Health Risks in American Diets | W

November 13 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Stock Investors Back In The Saddle Again The stock market has a good track record as a business-cycle indicator, even though last year’s bear market was a false alarm, as investors expected a recession that never came. Since that bear market ended, in October 2022, the stock market has been in a bull market, with its August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Now the Bond Vigilantes and their concerns have retreated, clearing the way for the S&P 500 to rise to our targets of 4600 by year-end 2023 and 5400 by year-end 2024. … Such expected stock market strength jibes with our economic outlook, which presumes that a recession isn’t likely before the end of 2024. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “NYAD” (+). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 6. Markets Stocks Are Suddenly Up—And FOMO Is Back | W Growing geopolitical conflicts have some investors feeling guilty about buying defense stocks | C A $20 Billion Week Marks Reopening of Market for EM Borrowers | B Investors pull record sums from Saudi in Middle East fund flight | R Central banks Central banks need a word with budget masters | R Stubborn Core CPI Helps Explain Some Fed Restlessness: Eco Week | B US The Low-Wage Pay Surge Is Over, Threatening the Consumer Boom | W Some public workers may receive reduced Social Security benefits | C Is Remote Work the Answer to Women’s Prayers, or a New ‘Mommy Track’? | N Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has not decided whether to seek reelection in 2024 | C House Republicans unveil their plan to avert a government shutdown next week | C The Biggest ‘Shrinkflation’ Scandal Yet: Oreo Fans Think Cookies Have Less Filling | W India Indian Stocks Advance in Diwali Session on Improving Economy | B Geopolitics & trade As Biden and Xi gear up for a high-stakes meeting, experts have low expectations | C What It Took to Get Biden and Xi to the Table | W Hamas Needed a New Way to Get Money From Iran. It Turned to Crypto. | W Industries & companies Media: ‘The Marvels’ worst opening weekend box office for MCU | C Tech: You Paid $1,000 for an iPhone, but Apple Still Controls It | N Climate New satellite will detect and share CO2 data from individual facilities | R The Path to Green Energy Is Getting Messier | W How Cancer-Linked PFAS ‘Forever Chemicals’ Found Their Way Into Everyone | B Beyond markets FTX Adds a Complex Chapter to the Financial-Fraud History Books | B Elon Musk biopic: Darren Aronofsky Oscar track record | C Taylor Swift’s postponed Argentina show prompts airline to waive flight-change fees | C

November 11 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 6. Markets Forget the S&P 500. Pay attention to the S&P 493 | E Stocks Rallied as Treasury Yields Fell. Don’t Get Used to It. | BR Bonds vs. Bond Funds: How Higher Rates Are Changing the Calculation | W Oil Prices Will Head Higher Next Year on Rising Demand | BR Central banks Central banks need a word with budget masters | R US I The Earnings Recession Is Over. The Economic Recession Is Coming Soon. | BR Moody’s cuts U.S. outlook to negative, citing deficits and political polarization | C On Main Street, time to prepare for the new minimum wage hikes in 2024 | C California is losing people, but this region wouldn’t know it | E   US II Democrats are giddy from this week’s electoral sweep | E Will Joe Manchin Run for President? Democrats Fear a Disaster. | W Donald Trump looks terrifyingly electable | E Trump admits various people saw papers, boxes brought from White House | C Europe Giorgia Meloni’s “mother of all reforms” is a power grab | E Europe’s Labor Unions Have Gone Quiet. Why Strikes Suddenly Stopped. | BR   China How scary is China? | E China wants women to stay home and bear children | E India India is in the midst of an unusual IPO boom | E Geopolitics & trade Will America pull the plug on Israel’s invasion of Gaza? | E China’s aggression brings Japan and the Philippines closer | E Yellen warns Beijing: Chinese firms aiding Russia face ‘significant consequences’ | R Industries & companies Airlines: Flight discounts are back as airlines race to fill seats | C Autos: Three big reasons Americans haven’t rapidly adopted EVs | E Energy: Clean-Energy Stocks Have Collapsed. What Comes Next. | BR Financials: Citi Stock: Should You Buy? How the Bank Can Get Back on Track. | BR Financials: Bank of America Stock Is Slumping. One Director Bought Up Shares. | BR Health Care: Prenuvo offers $2,500 full-body MRI scans that can detect cancer early | C Media: Walt Disney’s Strong Earnings Might Not Placate Peltz | BR Pharma: Weight loss drug Wegovy slashes risk of serious heart complications | C Retail: Five Economic Signs You’re Smart to Procrastinate on Holiday Shopping This Year | W Retail: Building an online sales success story is getting complex and costly | C Retail: TJX, Nike, and Other Stocks That Belong on Your Shopping List | BR Technology The rapid rise of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet business | C Artificial Intelligence OpenAI will let users build custom versions of ChatGPT | C Now AI can write, sing and act, is it still possible to be a star? | E Climate Carbon neutrality is harder than you think, but it’s worth it | The Hill Beyond markets What Elon Musk’s ‘Age of Abundance’ Means for the Future of Capitalism | W How Seniors Could Avoid Fall Injuries With a Martial-Arts Lesson | W

November 10 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 6. Markets Stocks Snap Winning Streak After Powell Warns Inflation Victory Not Assured | W Dow Futures Gain, Gloom Stalks European Luxury | W Back to the future? The new interest rate normal might look a lot like the pre-crash era | The Hill Your Money Needs to Go on a Vacation | W Why Are Oil Prices Falling While War Rages in the Middle East? | N Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves | R   Central banks Central banks need a word with budget masters | R US When You Give Up on Buying a House, What Do You Do With the Down Payment? | W How Work From Home Has Reshaped What Americans Buy | W Joe Manchin: Why I Won’t Be Seeking Re-Election to the Senate | W Why Third-Party Candidates Threaten Biden in 2024 | W Europe Europe Gas: Traders Tap Storage as Cold Snap Arrives | B As American companies rethink ESG, Europe plans to force it down our throats | Washington Examiner Japan Japan Prepares $13 Billion to Support Country’s Chip Sector | B China ICBC, the world’s biggest bank, hit by ransomware cyberattack | C China’s SMIC posts a 80% drop in third-quarter profit | C India India’s Factory Output Slows in September on Weak Demand | B Geopolitics & trade Israel Races to Root Out Hamas as Calls for Gaza Cease-Fire Mount | W What the world needs from the Biden-Xi summit amid global chaos | C China Is Making Too Much Stuff—and Other Countries Are Worried | W Nvidia will reportedly sell new chips to China that still meet U.S. rules | C Artificial Intelligence AI’s Power-Guzzling Habits Drive Search for Alternative Energy Sources | W Corporate finance How Risky Is Private Credit? Analysts Are Piecing Together Clues | W Private Equity, Now Featuring Less Equity | W Beyond markets Socially Isolated and Lonely People Are Dying Early | W

November 9 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 6. Markets Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease | R US Average credit card balances top $6,000, a 10-year high | C America’s Population Projected to Shrink by 2100, Census Figures Show | W Nikki Haley Stands Out on Foreign Policy at the Republican Debate | W Japan The Land Where Inflation Is Good News | W   Geopolitics & trade U.S. and China to Meet as Shifting Economic Fortunes Alter Relationship | W Surge and Swarm: How China’s Ships Control the South China Sea | W Industries & companies Airlines: United Airlines tweaks frequent flyer program to reward spending | C Autos: GM’s Cruise lays off contractors after suspending self-driving cars | C Autos: The EV Era Needs a Lot of Really Big Trees | W Media: ‘The Marvels’ headed for bad box office open | C Media: SAG-AFTRA strike impact on Hollywood will linger | C Tech: Nvidia plans to release three new chips for China – local media | R   Corporate finance The IPO market has grown quiet again. Here’s what is behind the shift in sentiment | C Artificial Intelligence AI’s Power-Guzzling Habits Drive Search for Alternative Energy Sources | W Beyond markets Shell sues Greenpeace for $2.1 million after activists boarded oil vessel | R The $2 Million Coal Mine That Might Hold a $37 Billion Treasure | W

November 8 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Captain America The US economy has remained remarkably strong in the face of the Fed’s attempts to tame inflation at the economy’s expense. So far, so good: Inflation has been moderating nicely but not bringing the economy down with it. Today, we review the major reasons for the US economy’s resilience. … In contrast, the global economy is weak as evidenced by the plunge in oil prices. Record US oil production has helped to lower oil prices from their September peak. … And: Joe looks at analysts’ estimate revisions activity in the wake of a strong Q3. Despite that strength, Q4 estimates are dropping at rates faster than usual. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 6. Markets Market timing doesn’t work: S&P 500 14% rally explained by just 8 days | C October suddenly looks like a bad bond dream | R Hoisington’s Hunt Says the Bond Rally Is Just Getting Started | B UBS resumes selling the bonds at the heart of Credit Suisse controversy | C Oil Declines Again as Demand Outlook Flashes Bearish Signs Gold dips as Powell speech takes centre stage; palladium hits 5-yr low | R Central banks Why the Fed Shouldn’t Get Credit for the Fall in Inflation | W US Right Now Is a Bad Time to Spend Money | W US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tumbles by Most in More Than a Year | B Mortgage rates plunge and demand finally inches back | C Hot Desking Is Next Risk to Office Property Market, Morgan Stanley Says | B Want a four-day workweek? You’re not alone | NN Europe Europe’s record gas stocks start to pressure prices | R China China Is Becoming a Problem for Investors | W Exclusive: China authorities ask Ping An to take controlling stake in Country Garden | R Geopolitics & trade Israel Says Its Forces Have Entered ‘Heart’ of Gaza City Amid War With Hamas | B Israeli-Palestinian Conflict History: The Roots of the Israel-Hamas War | B China and Russia Claim Moral High Ground Over Palestinian Deaths | W Global Electric Car (EV) Market to Reshape Economies, Political Alliances | B Industries & companies Airlines: American Airlines Dangles $250,000 Bonuses to Poach FedEx and UPS Pilots | W Health Care: Amazon to Offer Lower-Cost Primary Care to Prime Members in Latest Healthcare Push | W Pharma: Bayer weighs break-up options as management job cuts loom | R Railroads: Delays in Acela Upgrade Have Cost Amtrak $140 Million…and Counting | W Artificial Intelligence Opinion | In Regulating A.I., the Government May Be Doing Too Much. And Too Little. | N

November 7 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: What’s Next? Pickleball! Back and forth we expect the bond and stock markets to bounce for the foreseeable future as the bulls and bears in each market alternate control. We see the 10-year Treasury bond yield ending the year at 4.50% and the S&P 500 at 4600. Next year, we expect continued volleying between bulls and bears to keep the bond yield rangebound between 4.00% and 5.00% and the S&P 500 rising to 5400 by year-end. … As for the economy, we think surprisingly strong economic growth is likely next year, led by a productivity boom that continues for the remainder of the decade—our “Roaring 2020s” scenario taking hold at last. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 6. Markets Growing Italy risk puts equities at deepest discount in 35 years | R Russia’s Crude Oil Exports are Running Close to a Four-Month High | B Global Global rice markets are in crisis amid ‘artificial’ shortage | C Central banks Fed Inflation Fight Not Over, to Do More If Needed: Neel Kashkari | B Central banks look to have hit peak rates. Here’s how markets think they’ll come down | C US Why the U.S. hasn’t updated coins and notes | C   Europe Flights to Europe Are Becoming Cheap Again | W French prosecutors probing Sanofi over possible market manipulation | C China IMF upgrades China’s 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts | R China’s Exports Tumble Again in Fresh Sign of Economic Trouble | W   Geopolitics & trade Netanyahu Says Israel Will Control Gaza Security Indefinitely | W Japanese Automakers Face Stay-or-Go Decision in China | W Opinion | The U.S. Can Counter China’s Control of Minerals for the Energy Transition | N   Industries & companies Airlines: Your Pilot Has a New Job—and a Bigger Plane to Fly | W Banks: Big Banks Cook Up New Way to Unload Risk | W Financials: Premarket stocks: How Goldman Sachs is navigating a more turbulent world | NN Financials: UBS’s Takeover of Credit Suisse Was a Steal. Now Comes the Bumpy Part. | W Pharma: How Ozempic Maker Novo Nordisk’s Very Danish Capitalism Fueled Its Success, and Its Stumbles | W Corporate finance Private Equity Wants More US Millionaires Invested in Funds | B WeWork files for bankruptcy | C Artificial Intelligence AI negotiates legal contract without humans involved for first time | C I’ve Worked With AI for Months. Here Are 8 Lessons I’ve Learned | W Elon Musk Unveils ‘Grok,’ an AI Bot That Combines Snark and Lofty Ambitions | W Is It OK for Students to Use ChatGPT? More Teachers Say Yes | W

November 6 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Throwing Caution To The Wind Last week brought epic rallies in both the stock and bond markets. We think the stock market’s correction is over and that the S&P 500 is back on track to end the year at 4600. All 11 sectors gained ground last week, many enjoying their best week in nearly a year. … As for the bond market rally that carried the 10-year Treasury bond yield down to a more comfortable distance from 5.00%, the wave of buying had multiple drivers. Nevertheless, beware of the Bond Vigilantes. … Also: Recent economic news supports our Immaculate Disinflation theory. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 30. Markets Stock and Bond Rallies Could Thwart hopes for Rate Cuts | BR Markets think interest rates could stay high for a decade or more | E Markets Got an Unexpected Boost From Washington. Will It Mark a Turning Point? | W Wealth Is Shifting. To Cope, Individuals Need to Start Investing Like Institutions. | BR Russia to continue voluntary cut of oil and oil product exports until year-end | R Global The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last | E US Breaking Down the Best Earnings Quarter in a Year | W Housing Crisis Gets Worse for Americans on Mortgage Lock-In Effect | B Cash Buyers Are Giving the Luxury Home Market a Major Pick-Me-Up | Mansion Global The Fun Things in Life Are Giving Us Buyer’s Remorse | W RMDs: These Are the New Rules About Required Withdrawals From IRAs | BR Work Absences Due to Child Care Problems Jumped in October | BR Japan Japan Has Fallen Far Behind in the Chipmaking Business. It’s Plotting a Comeback. | BR Industries & companies Autos: GM expected to invest $13 billion in U.S. plants under new UAW deal | C Pharma: Vertex Pain Pill Could Replace Opioids. It’s an Opportunity for Investors. | BR Retail: Amazon and Walmart’s Surprising Hiring Plans for the Holidays | BR Tech: Apple, Tesla Give Cautious Outlooks as Big Tech Growth Status in Doubt | B Artificial Intelligence AI Is About to Remake the PC. Dell, HP Stock Look Like Buys. | BR

November 4 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 30. Markets Dow pops more than 200 points on Friday to cap the best week for stocks so far this year | C Stocks, Bonds, Credit See Biggest Weekly Cumulative Gain Since November 2022 | B US The Improbably Strong Economy | W Sharp U.S. Hiring Slowdown Signals Cooling Economy Ahead | W Gen Z leans into soft saving, less focused on retirement | C   Geopolitics & trade China Accuses US of Encouraging Provocations in South China Sea | B Australia PM says China visit ‘very positive’ for bilateral relations | R Hamas Has Deadlier Weapons Than the Last Time Israel Invaded Gaza | W An Israeli ‘Pause’ Would Help Hamas | W Industries & companies Materials: Rainfall plays key role in capping Chinese aluminium capacity | R Tech: One of the World’s Biggest Diamonds Could Be Key to Some of the World’s Fastest Microchips | W Tobacco: Big Tobacco Can No Longer Name Its Price | W Wireless: Carriers Look to Offer Fast-Lane Access on 5G Networks | W Beyond markets Daylight-Saving Time Is Ending. What to Know | W

November 3 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 30. Markets Three Concerns Facing Markets: Economy, Government Spending, the Fed | W US Jobs report October 2023: U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected | C We have seen (and solved) Bidenomics before | The Hill Who’s Running for President in 2024? Meet the Candidates | W 200,000 students accepted to college under direct admissions program | C Europe Hamburg skyscraper construction halted in grim sign for German property sector | R   India India’s New Delhi blanketed by toxic haze, world’s most polluted city again | R Geopolitics & trade It’s U.S. vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy | W China, U.S. to Meet for Rare Nuclear Arms-Control Talks | W China warms to U.S. chipmaker Micron, as tensions with Washington ease | R Exclusive: South Korea lining up banks to help finance $22 billion arms sale to Poland | R Is Globalization in Decline? A New Number Contradicts the Consensus | W Industries & companies Airlines: The Astrophysicist Who Has a Better Way to Board Airplanes | W Retail: Shoplifting and retail theft are a problem, and companies are complicit | Vox Shipping: Shipping giant Maersk announces 10,000 job cuts, warns of volatility | C Tech: Investors Aren’t Buying Apple’s New iPhone | W Artificial Intelligence Biden’s unconstitutional AI order | Washington Examiner Biden quietly tapped Obama to help shape his AI strategy | C Is a Rogue AI Company Training Powerful AI on a Barge to Avoid U.S. Regulations? | Vice   Beyond markets Elon Musk bought Twitter one year ago. Here’s everything he broke there. | Slate Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts | C Tesla boss Elon Musk says AI will create situation where no job is needed | C