What I Am Reading

December 12 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Call Of The Wild A few choice negative words about consumer spending prospects from a few high-profile bank CEOs tripped up the S&P 500 last week. But on Monday, a strong NM-PMI release did the same, setting investors fretting about the very opposite: that consumer spending might be too strong. Meanwhile, the bankers are crying all the way to the bank: The S&P 500 Financials sectors’ forward revenue and forward earnings have never been higher. If investors need reassurance that the economy isn’t headed south, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model certainly provides it. … Also: PPI inflation is falling relatively quickly. … And: Wage growth seems to have peaked. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 5. Markets A Global Upheaval Is Under Way, Says Market Veteran Felix Zulauf. Don’t Get Caught Flat-Footed. | BR Some Activists Are Leading an ESG Backlash | BR Central banks Investors Grow More Confident Fed Will Pull Off a Soft Landing | W Interest-Rate Paths for U.S., Europe Set to Diverge | W Global Column: Fiscal cavalry trots to inflation battle | R US U.S. inflation will be much lower by end of 2023, Yellen says | R You’re Hired! No Interview Required in Tight Labor Market | W Inflation Is Forcing Many Retirees to Put Long-Awaited Plans on Hold—Again | BR Homelessness Worsens in Older Populations as Housing Costs Take Toll | W From Disney to Target, Boeing, CEO retirements are a thing of the past | C Sen. Sinema’s switch to Independent will not impact Democrats’ control of the chamber, representatives say | C China China is loosening its covid restrictions, at great risk | E China is dismantling its zero-covid machine | E Chinese consumers wary of splurging after Beijing relaxes COVID strictures | R Waning trust: China shadow banks pivot away from property to survive | R China Props Up Belt-and-Road Borrowers Via Unusual Channel | W China’s Balance of Payments Data Does Not Add Up | Council on Foreign Relations Europe Why Italy, like Europe, is crying out for big reform | E Geopolitics & trade How Washington Persuaded Europe to Put a Price Cap on Russian Oil | W Industries & companies Healthcare: CVS Wants to Be a Healthcare Provider. So Why Doesn’t It Have Any Doctors? | BR Materials: Coal Price’s Rally May Soon Burn Out | BR Media: I Found the Perfect Replacement for Twitter. It’s LinkedIn | WIRED Technology SpaceX launches Japanese ispace lunar lander first mission | C Beyond markets NASA Prepares for Orion Spacecraft Splashdown to Conclude Artemis I Mission | W

December 09 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Industrials, P/Es & Chinese Protestors The Industrials sector is outperforming the S&P 500 despite market expectations for a recession. The sector’s exposure to airlines, the defense industry, Boeing, and General Electric may continue to support its performance into 2023. … Also: The bear market has taken a bite out of most industries’ forward P/Es, especially those involved with Information Technology or Consumer Discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, forward P/Es have expanded for select industries in the defensive Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors. … And Jackie examines how technology both helped and hurt Chinese protesters. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 5. Markets S&P 500 snaps losing streak on jobless claims rise | R US U.S. labor market still tight despite continuing claims hitting 10-month high | R U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Slightly in Tight Labor Market | W ‘The worst is yet to come’: the curse of high inflation | R Gas Prices Fall Below Last Year’s Average | W A $100 Billion Lesson In Why Building Public Transportation Is So Expensive in the US | Vice House passes $858 billion defense bill that would scrap Covid vaccine mandate | C China How Will China Turn Its Economy Back On? The World Is About to Find Out. | N Shanghai Disneyland Reopens as Businesses in China Welcome Covid-Control Easing | W Letter From Apple Supplier Foxconn’s Founder Prodded China to Ease Zero-Covid Rules | W Europe The Five-Year Engineering Feat Germany Pulled Off in Months | W Germany expects more arrests after coup plot swoop | R Geopolitics & trade Saudi Arabia signs Huawei deal, deepening China ties on Xi visit | R NATO Membership for Sweden and Finland on Track, Officials Say | W Industries & companies Autos: Auto Dealers Gird for Softening Demand Amid Higher Rates, Uncertain Outlook | W Autos: Tesla Sales of Chinese-Made Cars Hit Record, as Nation’s Auto Market Shrinks | W Energy: Column: ‘Dispatchable’ renewables in spotlight after upbeat IEA report | R Energy: Exxon Holds Firm on Its Five-Year Spending Outlook | W Financials: The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks? | W Corporate finance FTC sues to block Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard | C Crypto SEC issues new guidance requiring companies to disclose cryptocurrency risks | C FTX spokesman Kevin O’Leary says he lost $15 million crypto payday | C

December 08 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Industrials, P/Es & Chinese Protestors The Industrials sector is outperforming the S&P 500 despite market expectations for a recession. The sector’s exposure to airlines, the defense industry, Boeing, and General Electric may continue to support its performance into 2023. … Also: The bear market has taken a bite out of most industries’ forward P/Es, especially those involved with Information Technology or Consumer Discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, forward P/Es have expanded for select industries in the defensive Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors. … And Jackie examines how technology both helped and hurt Chinese protesters. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 5. Markets S&P 500 Notches Five-Day Losing Streak as Investors Mull Path for Rates | W Bruising Stock Market Reversal Shows How Fed’s Pivot May Come Too Late | B What China’s Covid-19 Reopening Means for Markets | W Emerging Economies Have a High Default Risk in 2023 | B Energy Russian Oil-Price Cap Adds to Fiscal Pressure on Moscow | W US What’s Going On With the Housing Market? | W Used vehicle demand and prices continue to decline from record highs | C Long Covid Is a Threat to the Whole Economy | B Wells Fargo, BofA CEOs say consumer demand is cooling, recession looms | C U.S. SEC to vote on proposals that could overhaul Wall St. trading | R Georgia Win Ends Headaches of 50-50 Senate for Democrats | W Europe Germany Arrests Extremists in Plot to Overthrow Government | W China China Scraps Most Covid Testing, Quarantine Requirements in Policy Pivot | W ‘Too many positives!’: As China rows back COVID curbs, virus fears spread | R Rich Chinese keep spending while others cut back: McKinsey survey | C Japan Japan upgrades Q3 GDP as global recession, COVID risks linger | R Geopolitics & trade U.S., Europe Need a Grand Bargain on Semiconductors and Electric Vehicles to Counter China | W

December 07 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Bonds & Europe Bond yields aren’t determined as much by supply and demand as they are by investor expectations regarding inflation and the Fed’s likely response to it. But it’s helpful to stay aware of the latest supply-and-demand-related developments in the bond market, which we review today. … Also: The EU has been doing a remarkable job of finding alternative fuel sources to replace energy imports from Russia. If a war-provoked energy crisis this winter causes a recession in Europe, chances seem good that it’ll be mild and brief. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 5. Markets S&P 500 closes lower for a fourth straight day as recession worries jolt markets | C Stocks Tumble After Strong Data Raises Rate Fears | W Oil Prices and Energy Stocks Are Headed in Different Directions. What Gives? | W Energy Europe Can’t Count On U.S. Shale To Make Up For Russian Crude | OilPrice.com Analysis: G7 Russian oil price cap evolves from revenue squeeze to market anchor | R The $60 price cap on Russian oil, explained – Vox Oil Price Cap Triggers Tanker Traffic Jam in Turkish Straits | W Central banks Fed to Weigh Higher Interest Rates Next Year While Slowing Rises This Month | W Global High Debt Levels Could Pressure Developing Countries as Global Economy Slows | W US America’s $66 trillion in debt that could crash the economy | P Trump Organization, owned by Donald Trump, convicted in tax fraud case | C Japan Japan business mood up, global slowdown weighs on outlook -poll | R Geopolitics & trade U.S., EU Agree to Coordinate Semiconductor Subsidy Programs | W TikTok National-Security Deal Faces More Delays as Worry Grows Over Risks | W Industries & companies Banking: Sen. Brown introduces bill to close ‘shadow’ banking loophole after Elon Musk says Twitter will process payments | C Tech: Meta’s Targeted Ad Model Faces Restrictions in Europe | W Technology Bezos’ space company teams with Lockheed, Boeing for NASA moon pitch | C Crypto Former FTX engineer quietly became millionaire Democratic donor | C

December 06 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings Matters Industry analysts following S&P 500 companies collectively lowered their earnings sights for this year and next when they heard Q3 earnings reports. The past three weeks have brought a reprieve in the estimate cutting, but will Q4 earnings reporting season revive it? Our soft-landing economic forecast suggests forward earnings moving sideways, not dropping, through H1-2023. … Also: PMIs correlate with the growth rates of S&P 500 earnings and revenues, and the latest readings yield insights into consumer spending patterns and inflationary pressures. … And: There’s no simple rule of thumb for when to over- and under-weight stocks of various capitalization sizes, but there are specific economic conditions that can guide the decision. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 5. Markets China’s Covid Easing Fuels Stock-Market Hopes—and Fans Fears | W Energy Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Reshaping Geopolitics | OilPrice.com Russian oil cap: EU ministers insist it’ll work despite Kremlin’s opposition | C Oil Prices and Energy Stocks Are Headed in Different Directions. What Gives? | W Renewables to be main source of electricity generation by 2025: IEA | C US Housing Costs, Inflation’s Biggest Component, Are Poised to Ease | W Jamie Dimon says inflation eroding consumer wealth may cause recession next year | C Warnock, Walker Wrap Up Senate Runoff Campaign as Georgia Voters Head to Polls | W Inside the fight for an end-of-year deal to expand the child tax credit | Vox Europe Germany: EU shouldn’t borrow more to compete with U.S. green subsidies | C China Beijing drops COVID testing burden as wider easing beckons | R China’s Covid lockdowns are having a lessening impact on its economy | C Industries & companies Airlines: United CEO says business travel has ‘plateaued’ but revenue is still rising | C Airlines: Airlines warn of higher fares from green transition | R Autos: Ford CEO says 65% of U.S. dealers agree to sell EVs | C Real Estate: Investors Yank Money From Commercial-Property Funds, Pressuring Real-Estate Values | W Retail: Inflation still a problem for Americans, Walmart CEO says | C Corporate finance NRG Energy to Buy Vivint Smart Home for $2.8 Billion | W Microsoft offers Sony 10-year deal for Call of Duty on PlayStation | C

December 05 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow We’ll be glad to put this year behind us—pessimism reigned as inflation raged, the Fed tightened, and investors revalued stocks downward. But the resultant bear market was a mild one as bear markets go. If it ended on October 12, as we believe, the S&P 500 actually was in bear-market territory—down more than 20%—for only 45 days of the 282-day span. … Next year, the economic backdrop should be more bullish as inflation moderates and rising wages outpace rising prices. We expect a soft landing, not a recession. … Longer term, we stand by our “Roaring 2020s” thesis, anticipating that labor shortages and technological advances will unleash a productivity boom. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 28. Markets Dow Shines as Higher Rates Squeeze Nasdaq’s Tech Stocks | W Small-Cap Stocks Are Some of the Best Buys in the Stock Market | BR China’s Stock Market Is Seeing a Rebound. But It Might Not Last Long. | BR Bonds Are Primed for a Better 2023, but How Much Better? | W Central banks A Central Bank That Raised Rates Early Now Talks Up Recession | W The Fed’s path to a ‘Goldilocks’ economy just got more complicated | C Energy OPEC+ keeps steady policy amid weakening economy, Russian oil cap | R OPEC+ Keeps Oil Curbs Despite Russia Price Cap | W OPEC+ meeting: Oil producer group in focus ahead of Russia sanctions | C Russia will not export oil subject to Western price cap, deputy prime minister says | R US Economists Think They Can See Recession Coming—for a Change | W Is the Housing Market Headed for a Big Crash? What’s Ahead for Real Estate. | BR Employers Try to Hold Line on Wages, With Mixed Success | W Companies need to increase salary transparency or workers will quit | C China Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in demand collapse | C China Loosens Covid Restrictions as Public Anger Simmers | W Chinese cities ease curbs, full zero-COVID exit seen some way off | R Xi Jinping’s zero-covid policy has turned a health crisis into a political one | E The protests in China may change the way Xi Jinping runs the country, says Minxin Pei | E The Chinese government exercises control through local busybodies, explains Lynette H. Ong | E Geopolitics & trade U.S. intel chief on Russia using up ammunition in Ukraine | C Chinese Solar Manufacturers Dodged U.S. Tariffs, Probe Finds | W Poor Countries Feel Sting of Local-Currency Debt | W Industries & companies Airlines: Delta pilots would get more than 30% in pay raises under new contract deal | C Housing: The Housing Boom Is Over. But Housing Stocks Could Still Be Winners. | BR Media: Who will be Disney’s next CEO? Top contenders to succeed Bob Iger | C Tech: Apple Makes Plans to Move Production Out of China | W Tech: Business-Software Companies Say Customers Are Pulling Back Amid Economic Concerns | W Crypto Can You Buy Bitcoin Without an Exchange Like FTX? We Tried. | BR FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Says He Can’t Account for Billions Sent to Alameda | W Clashes Over FTX Bankruptcy Go Global | W Beyond markets Parents Who Share Info About Their Kids Online Are a Cybersecurity Risk. Here’s Why. | W Billions in Covid Aid Went to Hospitals That Didn’t Need It | W

December 02 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell, Onshoring & Tech Reassurance from Fed Chair Powell yesterday that the Fed would proceed on its tightening course with “moderation,” to avoid setting off a recession, was music to investors’ ears—lifting stock prices and lowering bond yields. Today, we look at the words that had such a palliative effect on markets and recap Powell’s main points, especially about inflation. … Also: Rising reshoring and FDI trends suggest a revival of US manufacturing, which will benefit supply chains and labor markets. … And: Jackie examines the reasons for tech stocks’ recent malaise. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 28. Central banks ECB’s Lagarde Leads Chorus Warning That Inflation Must Be Anchored | B Column: Powell wisely passes up financial conditions ‘open goal’: McGeever | R Jobs Report Keeps Federal Reserve on Track for 0.5-Point Rate Rise | W Energy Gas Prices Are Dropping: Here’s How Much Lower They Might Go | W Lack of Wind Pushes Europe’s Power Prices Higher, Just as Cold Sets In | W OPEC meeting: Oil output cuts on the table ahead of Russia sanctions | C EU, G-7 Wait on Poland to Advance Russian Oil-Price Cap | W Why Silicon Valley is so hot on nuclear energy | C US I Jobs report November 2022: Payrolls and wages blow past expectations and flying in the face of Fed rate hikes | C November Employment Report Shows U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs | W U.S. job growth strong in November; wages rise | R How COVID-19 transformed the jobs market | The Hill US II Railroad strike: How the trains are getting longer and the job is getting worse. | slate.com Opinion | The Rail Strike Is a Chance For Biden to Prove He Really Is a Pro-Union President | N Next steps on the Child Tax Credit | brookings.edu China China Turns to Well-Worn Playbook to Keep Protesters Off Streets | W China Clamps Down on Internet as It Seeks to Stamp Out Covid Protests | W Inside China’s fight over the future of zero-COVID | R China people worry wrong Covid test results mean pandemic won’t end | C   Geopolitics & trade The U.S. wants the EU to be strict with China. But Europe can’t afford it | C European Frustration Over U.S. Subsidies Mounts Ahead of Key Meeting | W Russia ‘open’ to talks on Ukraine but presses demands after Biden comment | R Chinese Solar Manufacturers Are Evading Tariffs, US Finds | B   Industries & companies Financials: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Cut Banker Bonuses | B Tech: Tech layoffs leave visa holders scrambling for jobs to remain in U.S. | C Crypto Is cryptocurrency still a good investment? | The Week FTX: DOJ watchdog calls for review over crypto fraud allegations | C

December 01 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell, Onshoring & Tech Reassurance from Fed Chair Powell yesterday that the Fed would proceed on its tightening course with “moderation,” to avoid setting off a recession, was music to investors’ ears—lifting stock prices and lowering bond yields. Today, we look at the words that had such a palliative effect on markets and recap Powell’s main points, especially about inflation. … Also: Rising reshoring and FDI trends suggest a revival of US manufacturing, which will benefit supply chains and labor markets. … And: Jackie examines the reasons for tech stocks’ recent malaise. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 28. Markets S&P 500 ends 3-day losing streak. Dow jumps 700 points after Powell signals smaller rate hikes | C Central banks Jerome Powell Signals Fed Prepared to Slow Rate-Rise Pace in December | W Fed Chair Jerome Powell says smaller rate hikes could come in December | C Fed’s Powell: Rate hikes to slow, but adjustment just beginning | R US House Approves Imposing Railroad Labor Deal, Paid Sick-Leave Measure | W Some Rail Workers, Seeking Sick Days, Say Biden Betrayed Them | N U.S. Economic Growth Slowed This Fall, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W Third-Quarter U.S. Growth Was Stronger Than Previously Thought | W Companies are cutting Zoom accounts and office space instead of jobs – Vox China Overseas Chinese step up protests as calls mount for change | R China’s Covid Protests Began With an Apartment Fire in a Remote Province | W Proud, Scared and Conflicted. What the China Protesters Told Me. | N Industries & companies Media: EU warns Musk that Twitter faces ban over content moderation -FT | R Media: Disney warns restructuring could result in impairment charges | R Tech: Mark Zuckerberg says Apple’s app store policies are not ‘sustainable’ | C Crypto Bitcoin Family moving more than $1 million into DEXs after FTX collapse | C ‘No Cooperation’: How Sam Bankman-Fried Tried to Cling to FTX | N UK charity backed by Bankman-Fried sounds alarm to British regulators | C Crypto exchange Kraken lays off 1,100 employees | C Technology Elon Musk’s Neuralink Hopes for Approval to Implant a Computer in a Human Brain | B Beyond markets Megalopolis: how coastal west Africa will shape the coming century | Africa | The Guardian

November 30 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: 2024 Is Coming! As 2023 approaches and progresses, it will be the 2024 outlook that the stock market increasingly will discount. Today, we examine the stock market equation P = P/E x E, with E representing S&P 500 forward earnings, in the context of both the consensus and our expectations for earnings and the economic backdrop next year and in 2024. … Also: The inverted yield curve is predicting neither a credit crunch nor a recession, in our view. This time, it may be anticipating a hasty retreat of inflation. That could mean that the yields on both the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries are peaking. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 28. Markets The Best Stocks to Buy Next Year as Inflation Dies | InvestorPlace Junk Bonds Rally as Investors Speculate Inflation Has Peaked | W Central banks Eurozone Inflation Eased in November, but Further Rate Rises Likely | W Elon Musk says the Fed must cut rates ‘immediately’ to stop a severe recession | C US Job Openings Report to Indicate Tightness of Labor Market | W Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports | C Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further | C What Congress could do to avoid a rail strike — and why unions are upset | Vox China Two Chinese cities ease COVID curbs after protests spread | R Jiang Zemin, Leader Who Presided Over China’s Economic Rise, Dies at 96 | W Geopolitics & trade Chinese Startups Try to Make It Big in the U.S.—but Without the Backlash | W Why Macron? Biden state dinner highlights France’s U.S. appeal | R Industries & companies Media: Opinion | Why Disney Fans Celebrated the Firing of Bob Chapek | N Retail: Amazon records biggest ever Thanksgiving shopping weekend | Reuters Crypto European Central Bank says bitcoin is on the ‘road to irrelevance’ | C Early Alameda Staffers Quit After Battling Sam Bankman-Fried Over Risk, Compliance Concerns | W Climate COP27’s green agenda will leave many out in the cold this winter | WT

November 29 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Anxious Index If the economy is in for a hard landing next year, it would be the most widely anticipated recession ever. The Philly Fed’s survey of forecasters, the WSJ’s survey of economists, and even the Misery Index that reflects the sum of unemployment and inflation rates point to a recession. … But we think this time is different. There’s been no broad-based credit crunch, liquidity is ample, consumer incomes are growing, multi-family housing remains strong, capital spending does too, and fiscal stimulus has been gushing. Real GDP shouldn’t contract in such an environment but grow, slowly but surely. We’re in the soft-landing camp. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 28. Markets Dow tumbles 500 points but could actually end the year in the green | NN Stocks close lower, Dow drops nearly 500 points as supply chain concerns mount amid protests in China | C Central banks Fed has ‘a ways to go’ on interest rate hikes, Bullard says | R Fed’s Williams Says Inflation Fight Could Last Into 2024 | W Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability | FRBSF US 400 groups urge U.S. lawmakers to take ‘immediate steps’ to block potential rail strike | R Job Cuts in Tech and Banking Don’t Mean Mass Layoffs in Looming Global Recession | B Joe Biden wastes billions on COVID boosters vaccines | P China China Clamps Down on Protesters Against Zero-Covid Policies | W Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind | W Protests against Covid controls erupt across China | C Geopolitics & trade White House Says Chinese Have a Right to Peacefully Protest | W Russia Cancels Arms-Control Talks, U.S. Says | W Industries & companies Media: Elon Musk claims Apple has threatened to remove the Twitter app | C Retail: Returns Are the Retail Industry’s Quietly Mounting Logistics Problem | W Tech: Exclusive: Microsoft likely to offer EU concessions soon in Activision deal -sources | R Crypto BlockFi Bankruptcy: More Crypto Trader Funds Trapped After FTX Collapse | B How FTX ‘death spiral’ spelled doom for BlockFi, according to filing | C FTX: The Enron case on steroids, fueled by woke capitalism | The Hill Corporate finance Shell to Buy Biogas Producer in $2 Billion Deal | W Climate U.S. warns California cities possible water cuts in fourth dry year | C Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Volcano Is Erupting for the First Time Since 1984 | W Idealab, Heliogen founder Bill Gross sold solar energy kits in 1973 | C ESG Sign of the times: BlackRock closes ESG fund due to lack of interest, amid poor performance – Citywire | Twitter Populist House Republicans Picking a Fight With US Business Over ‘Woke Capitalism’ | R