What I Am Reading

March 15 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Oscars Within days of the run on SVB, the Fed has donned its “lender of last resort” cape—guaranteeing all bank deposits by all depositors (!), creating a new emergency bank lending facility, and launching a review of what went wrong at SVB. As a result, we don’t see sufficient SVB ripple effects to alter our outlooks for the economy or financial markets. … Also: Inflation has proven both more transitory (consumer goods inflation) and more persistent (consumer services) than expected, but both types have moderated lately. … And: Joe examines the S&P 500 Growth index’s comeback relative to Value after more than a year as the underdog. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 13. Markets Credit Suisse shares slide after Saudi backer rules out further assistance | C Central banks About Those ‘Safe’ Silicon Valley Bank Treasurys | W SVB & banks Credit Suisse leads Europe bank rout in renewed SVB fallout | R Credit Suisse’s biggest backer says can’t put up more cash; share down by a fifth | R Credit Suisse chairman says Silicon Valley Bank crisis looks contained | C First Republic spoke to private equity before securing financing -sources | R Fears of a ‘Great Financial Crisis 2.0’ are overblown | The Hill US U.S. Consumer Spending Declined in February After Hot Start to Year | W PPI February 2023: Wholesale prices post decline of 0.1%, retail sales fall | C Retail egg prices fell in February — but price drop may not last long | C Mortgage demand rises despite volatile interest rates | C 84% of recent first-time home sellers have regrets. Mistakes to avoid | C   China China’s Economy Rebounds, Spurred by Consumption | W   Industries & companies Media: BuzzFeed Encourages Reporters to Write More Stories in Attempt to Turn Profit | W Technology Bosses Are Catching Job Applicants Using ChatGPT for a Boost | W Beyond markets Opinion | Working From Home Is Less Healthy Than You Think | N

March 14 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Lender Of Last Resort While the Fed and FDIC have acted swiftly to contain the SVB debacle, could it still balloon into a financial crisis like previous ones that triggered a credit crunch and recession? It could if it set off a wave of disintermediation at banks broadly, but we doubt that will happen; we think the regulators’ actions will work. … So the incident doesn’t change our outlooks for the economy, stock market, or bond market. But it does revive the “Fed Put.” That’s because the Fed’s actions to stabilize the banking system also stabilize financial markets. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 13. Central banks Fed Interest Rate Hike Pause Is Tough Call After Inflation Reaccelerates | B Fed seen raising rates by 25 bps next week and in May | R Fed’s Tightening Plans Collide With SVB Fallout | W U.S. Inflation Cooled in February as Fed Confronts Bank Failures | W Silicon Valley Bank: Elizabeth Warren criticizes Fed Chair Powell | C SVB & banks What’s The Next Banking Crisis After SVB? Analysts Say It Won’t Be Last | B Moody’s cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing ‘rapidly deteriorating operating environment’ | C Bruised U.S. bank stocks shake off initial SVB contagion fears | R First Republic shares jump as regional banks rebound sharply from Monday’s sell-off | C JPMorgan, other big U.S. banks flooded with new clients post SVB collapse-FT | R Signature Bank (SBNY) Was Seized After ‘Crisis of Confidence’ in Management | B SEC and Justice Department: Silicon Valley Bank investigation | C US Higher rents boost US consumer prices in February | R CPI inflation February 2023 increased 0.4% and 6% from a year ago | C Here’s the inflation breakdown for February — in one chart | C Why more than 60% of Fortune 500 companies incorporated in Delaware | C Europe French Pension Strikes: The Party Is Ending for Retirees | W Japan Japan Has a Low Risk of a Wage-Price Spiral and That’s a Mixed Blessing | W Geopolitics & trade Kamala Harris, Antony Blinken Head to Africa in a Bid to Counter China | W Industries & companies Airlines: Southwest Airlines’ staffing, tech improvement plan after holiday mess | C Tech: Google, Meta, Amazon, others have cut more than 95,000 employees | C Tech: Meta Plans to Layoff 10,000 Employees in Second Round of Job Cuts | W Climate Biden proposes first national limits on toxic ‘forever chemicals’ | C California braces for catastrophic floods, East coast faces nor’easter | C   Technology If ChatGPT Writes Your Cover Letter, Is It Cheating? Some Bosses Think So. | W

March 13 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Run For The (Sand) Hill Tightening monetary cycles often end abruptly when “something breaks” and a financial crisis is triggered. If the Silicon Valley Bank run is that something, it could mean tightening ends sooner and bond yields have peaked. We can’t say for sure that’s the case but can say the debacle should keep the tech sector mired in its rolling recession for longer. While the SVB crisis doesn’t change our economic and stock market outlooks for now, it adds uncertainty until resolved in a way that minimizes systemic shock. … Also: A theory for why labor market demand so persistently exceeds supply points a finger at the Baby Boomers. … Dr. Ed reviews “Till” (+ + +). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6. Markets William Blair’s Carlette McMullan Is Sticking With Growth Stocks | BR Central banks Goldman analysts no longer expect Fed rate hike in March after SVB failure | R   SVB & banks Companies Whose Deposits in Silicon Valley Bank Were Just Freed | W How Silicon Valley Turned on Silicon Valley Bank | W Banks Trade Relief Now for Regulation Later | W After SVB failure, US acts to shore up banking system confidence | R Why the SVB-Triggered Selloff Is a Buying Opportunity in Big Bank Stocks | BR Biden to defend U.S. banking system after SVB, Signature collapse | R   Global & commodities Global Economy Gets Tailwind From Falling Energy Prices | W Platinum Is the New Precious Metal Darling. Why Palladium Lost Its Shine. | BR US What if Joe Biden decided against running for re-election? | E   China Many of China’s top politicians were educated in the West | E Europe France is in a stand-off against Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform | E Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? | E Germany is letting a domestic squabble pollute Europe’s green ambitions | E Geopolitics & trade China’s Xi to Speak to Zelensky, Meet Next Week With Putin | W Exclusive: UK approves increased submarine-related exports to Taiwan, risking angering China | R Industries & companies Tech: With Salesforce Stock Under Pressure, Marc Benioff Fights Back | BR Corporate finance Pfizer Agrees to Buy Seagen for $43 Billion | W Beyond markets Jubilation as ‘pride of Malaysia’ Yeoh wins first Oscar | R

March 11 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Defense & AI Videos China’s economy has recovered after the country lifted its zero-Covid lockdowns. But that news has been eclipsed by the rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Jackie examines the escalating tensions. … Also: A look at projected defense spending in the US and China and how the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense industry’s stock price index has been faring after a super-strong 2022. … Finally, our Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on how AI is transforming the production of movies and video games. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6. SVB Silicon Valley Bank collapse: How it happened | C Silicon Valley Bank’s demise began with downgrade threat | R Founders swarmed SVB’s branches looking for answers after bank failure | C Analysis: SVB’s lightning collapse stuns banking industry | R Silicon Valley Bank staff offered 45 days of work at 1.5 times salary | R Circle’s USDC Stablecoin Breaks Peg With $3.3 Billion Stuck at Silicon Valley Bank | W Bank of England Shuts Silicon Valley Bank’s U.K. Subsidiary | W   Central banks Column: Fed’s ‘R-star’ becomes black hole | R   US Inflation and cost of living crisis are not stopping people from traveling | C Biden’s Defense Budget Draws GOP Criticism, Sets Up Spending Clash | W Biden’s $5 trillion tax blowout still leaves soaring red ink | P Student-Loan Bills Are Set to Come Due, Adding Pressure on Younger Americans | W How to fight poverty and boost work with an enhanced Child Tax Credit | The Hill   China Li Qiang becomes China’s premier, tasked with reviving economy | C   Geopolitics & trade China’s Model of a New Diplomacy Scores a Win With Iran-Saudi Deal | W How China Boxed America Out of the South China Sea | W Industries & companies Grocery Stores: A Supermarket Megamerger Will Redefine What You Buy at the Grocery Store | W Tech: Meta Plans New Layoffs That Could Match Last Year’s in Scope | W Tech: Amazon Prime Air drone business stymied by regulations, weak demand | C   Beyond markets Falling Survey-Response Rates Undermine Economic Data | W

March 10 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Defense & AI Videos China’s economy has recovered after the country lifted its zero-Covid lockdowns. But that news has been eclipsed by the rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Jackie examines the escalating tensions. … Also: A look at projected defense spending in the US and China and how the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense industry’s stock price index has been faring after a super-strong 2022. … Finally, our Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on how AI is transforming the production of movies and video games. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6. Markets Are you short Jim or long Jim? | FT Commodities Column: China’s run of strong diesel, gasoline exports poised to end | R US February is expected to have been a strong month for hiring and wages | C All the President’s Tax Increases | W Biden’s $6.8 trillion budget challenges Republicans, raises taxes on rich | R Biden’s Budget Shows the Rising Cost of Leaving Medicare and Social Security Untouched | W Industries & companies Financials: Thiel Fund, Venture Firms Advise Companies to Pull Money From SVB (SIVB) | B Financials: Banks tumble as SVB ignites capitalization fears | R Media: Disney reconsiders making content for others under Bob Iger | R   Crypto Bitcoin, ether fall after go-to crypto bank Silvergate announces liquidation | C Silvergate’s Story Is About Fundamentals, Not Just Crypto | W Climate Column: Argentina’s catastrophic drought clips recovery in S. American corn, soy output | R Technology The inside story of how ChatGPT was built from the people who made it | MIT Slack’s new ChatGPT bot will talk to your colleagues for you | The Verge

March 09 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Defense & AI Videos China’s economy has recovered after the country lifted its zero-Covid lockdowns. But that news has been eclipsed by the rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Jackie examines the escalating tensions. … Also: A look at projected defense spending in the US and China and how the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense industry’s stock price index has been faring after a super-strong 2022. … Finally, our Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on how AI is transforming the production of movies and video games. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6. Markets Powell changed everything this week on market’s view of interest rates | C US I Here’s Why the Economy Seems Weird | W US weekly jobless claims post largest rise in 5 months; labor market still tight | R US II Biden’s $6.8 trillion budget challenges Republicans, raises taxes on rich | R Biden’s Budget Sets Up Battle With GOP, Would Cut Deficits by $3 Trillion Over 10 Years | W President Biden’s proposed 2024 budget calls for top 39.6% tax rate | C Biden’s proposed NASA budget for 2024 increases funds to $27.2 billion | C How Team Biden is getting more and more corporations to do its bidding | P China China’s Inflation Rate Slows to One-Year Low, Casting Doubt on Recovery | W Europe Europe’s Next Gas Crisis by Edoardo Campanella | Project Syndicate Geopolitics & trade Denmark investigates yacht linked to Nord Stream blasts | R Industries & companies Airlines: Biden proposed FAA budget for 2024 increases funding | C Autos: General Motors to Offer Voluntary Buyouts | W Financials: Silicon Valley Bank shares slide on stock-sale plan to cope with cash burn | R Media: Disney CEO Bob Iger wants fresh Marvel superhero slate | C Beyond markets Elon Musk Is Planning a Texas Utopia—His Own Town | W

March 08 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Profit Margin Recession? Today, we examine S&P 500 companies’ revenues, earnings, and profit margins as reported for Q4-2022 and as estimated by industry analysts for 2023. Notably, Q4 revenues grew impressively to a record high, but inflation accounted for much of that. Operating earnings per share fell y/y, and just two S&P 500 sectors saw y/y earnings growth. Profit margins were squeezed by rising labor costs at a time of negative productivity growth. … While Q4 is behind us, its influence isn’t: It has caused analysts to chop earnings expectations for all four quarters of this year. Current 2024 estimates may prove too low if they reflect a recession that never arrives. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6. Markets Strategists See Asian Currencies, Stocks Under Pressure From Fed | B China Bears Brunt of Asia Tech Selloff After Hawkish Powell Talk | B Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing | B Energy U.S. Shale Boom Shows Signs of Peaking as Big Oil Wells Disappear | W India’s oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance | R Central banks Fed’s Powell previews tougher rate hike path, starting soon | R Powell Testimony: Repeats Fed Prepared to Speed Up Interest Rate Hikes If Needed | B Powell Testimony: Fed Chair Says ‘No Decision’ on Speeding Up Rate Hike Pace | B Fed Chair Jerome Powell Returns to Congress for Second Day of Testimony | W US I US JOLTS Job Openings Drop to 10.8 Million But Still Too High for Fed | B Job openings declined in January but still far outnumber available workers | C ADP jobs report February 2023: Private payrolls rose by 242,000, better than expected | C Restaurants Can’t Find Workers as Millennials, Gen X Avoid Return to Work | B ​Women’s Return to the Workforce Piles Momentum on a Hot Economy | W US II Mortgage demand recovers slightly, despite rising rates | C Manchin Faces 2024 Choice Crucial to Democratic Friends and Foes Alike | B U.S. Imports, Exports Grew in January, Adding to Signs of Solid Global Economy | W Europe French strikes over pension reform disrupt air and rail travel, fuel supply | R China Xi Jinping’s Subtle Strategy to Control China’s Biggest Companies | W Geopolitics & trade U.S., China Plunge Further Into a Spiral of Hostility | W Russia and China may try using their natural resources to back their money | WT In Nord Stream Probe, German Investigators Search Boat That May Have Carried Explosives | W Studying Ukraine war, China’s military minds fret over US missiles, Starlink | R Yellen is giving away the farm through global tax scheme  | The Hill Industries & companies Airlines: American Airlines CEO tells pilots pay will match Delta’s | C Autos: Tesla Rival BYD Plans Big Commercial-Vehicle Push | W Beyond markets The Perk-Cession Is Under Way at Some Companies | W

March 07 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Selected Sectors Short Studies Our base-case economic outlook is upbeat. Stock investors likewise seem optimistic about the economy given which S&P 500 sectors have led the index’s advance since October. We recommend overweighting five S&P 500 sectors this year: Energy, Financials, Industrials, Information Technology, and Materials. … Also: We zero in on the themes and data supporting two of these recommendations, Information Technology, which stands to benefit from companies spending on productivity-enhancing technologies in this tight labor market, and Industrials, which should benefit from strong spending on infrastructure construction, manufacturing capacity, and industrial machinery in a growing economy. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6. Markets A bull market is in full swing – and most of us are in denial | P U.S. Treasury yields: investors anticipate Fed Chair Powell’s remarks | C Commodities Germany’s Schwedt refinery losing out in race from Russian oil | R Ukraine Shift on Sunflower-Seed Exports Calms Cooking-Oil Market Rocked by War | W Central banks Fed Chair Powell heads to Capitol Hill, and he’s got his hands full | C The Fed’s trillion-dollar bridge to nowhere | The Hill US How Seasonality Affects Our View of Inflation and Jobs, as Explained With Hot Dogs | W Why poverty might be far worse in the U.S. than it’s reported | C IWG CEO says commercial real estate has a ‘shock coming’ | C Europe French Strikes Escalate Campaign Against Macron’s Pension Overhaul | W China China Shakes Up Government as Xi Asserts More Control Over Policy | W Industries & companies Health Care: WeightWatchers Moves Into the Ozempic Market With Telehealth Deal | W Pharma: The Government’s Covid Casualties | W Retail: How Lego Beat Barbie and Monopoly | W Tech: Salesforce Strives to Make Its Sales Force More Efficient | W Geopolitics & trade China’s Foreign Minister Says Ties With U.S. Risk Going Off the Rails | W China’s new foreign minister on U.S. relations, Taiwan, spy balloon | C New bill will give the Commerce Secretary the power to ban TikTok | C Corporate finance Rivian to raise $1.3 billion amid EV demand concerns | C Beyond markets Employees Terrorize Their Bosses Into Going Woke | W

March 06 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The ‘Roaring 2020s’ Revisited Productivity was poor last year—declining more than it has since 1974—and growth in unit labor costs was high. But the final quarter of 2022 saw significant improvements in both, and we think the worst is over for both. If productivity continues to improve as companies increasingly solve their labor challenges with technological innovations, that should lead to lower inflation, higher real wages, and better profit margins. That’s the thesis of our “Roaring 2020s” outlook. … Also: The economy has been experiencing a rolling recession that started last year. Today, we examine rolling recessions, past and present. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “The Whale” (+ + +). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 27. Markets The U.S. Stock Market Is Undervalued, but It Looks Like a Rough Road Ahead | Morningstar How to Invest: Holding Cash Will Be a Winning Strategy in 2023, Investors Say | B China’s Markets Are Set for a Strong 2023 | BR Japan Piled Back Into U.S. Treasurys This Year. Investors Worry It Won’t Last. | W Junk-Rated Companies Are Borrowing Again | W ESG & climate On Wall St., ‘Socially Responsible’ Is Common Sense. In Congress, It’s Political. | N The ESG attack on energy becomes personal | Washington Examiner One zeal of a woke backlash to ESG investments | P Uranium Is Back in Demand. Russia and Climate Change Are Why. | BR Central banks Fed’s Rate Moves Put Manufacturing Sector at Risk | W The Paul Volcker Narrative Imagines an Economy That Doesn’t Exist, and That Never Has | FO China China Sets Conservative Growth Target as Challenges Loom | W China takes a cautious approach to its economy in 2023 | C China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang, is about to retire | E China’s New Top Troubleshooters | W Missing Banker Bao Fan Reignites Fears of China’s Xi in Tech | B Analysis: China’s chip sector needs more than state money to dull impact of US restrictions | R US Housing Market Momentum Stalls as Critical Spring Season Approaches | W Europe Italy’s largest opposition party gets a young and radical new leader | E India Is India’s boom helping the poor? | E Geopolitics & trade Why aren’t China and America more afraid of a war? | E How America plans to break China’s grip on African minerals | E Pentagon Sees Giant Cargo Cranes as Possible Chinese Spying Tools | W South Korea Says It Has Deal With Japan on Forced-Labor Dispute | W Industries & companies Agriculture: It’s Boom Time for Farmers. Deere and Other Stocks Are Reaping the Riches. | BR Autos: Tesla cuts U.S. Model S and Model X prices between 4% and 9% | R Autos: EV Startups Brace for Another Tough Year as Cash Dwindles | W Autos: EVs Boost Chip Demand Despite Semiconductor Makers’ Woes | W Biotech: How to Invest in Biotech Now. | BR Consumer: Nestle, Tyson, food giants bet on air fryers | C Tech: Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks. | BR Tech: Chinese firms launch foldable smartphones as Apple rumors swirl | C Corporate finance The tech slump is encouraging venture capital to rediscover old ways | E Technology One of the biggest autonomous vehicle tests is deep underwater | C Investors are going nuts for ChatGPT-ish artificial intelligence | E Your Face Is Your Ticket: A Creepy Convenience | W Beyond markets Five New Work Perks You’ll See in the Future | W Hiltzik: The COVID lab leak theory won’t die, but it should | LA Times New drugs could spell an end to the world’s obesity epidemic | E Places with high religious participation have fewer deaths of despair | E

March 04 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Discretionary, Utilities & AI Fake Voice Retailers are wary about the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates on consumers’ discretionary spending. But Target this year stands to benefit from easier y/y comparisons and shoppers looking for alternatives to its rapidly shrinking competitor Bed, Bath & Beyond. Jackie examines. … Also: Will demand for electricity outstrip available supply over coming years with retiring fossil-fuel-powered electricity generation replaced by less reliable green alternatives? That’s what one transmission organization projects. … And: With voice-cloning software readily available, its potential nefarious (as well as silly) uses may spark new opportunities in identity authentication. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 27. Markets Stock Traders Are Ignoring Blaring Bond Alarms | B U.S. financial system vulnerable to bond market stress, Fed’s Logan says | R GEN-Z ETF Shuts Down After Falling 26% | B Energy How Russia’s war made the U.S. a dominant supplier of energy | C Central banks The World Economy Is Doing Well—This Is Bad News for Central Bankers | W Fed Says More Interest-Rate Hikes Needed to Curb Inflation | B Fed Official Says Hotter Data Will Warrant Higher Rates | W Fed’s Barkin calls for deliberate rate hikes to fight ‘exhausting’ inflation | R US US Service Sector Expands Suggesting Hiring Ahead of February Jobs Report | B Consumers Try to Change Their Spending Habits After the Pandemic | N Government Subsidizes Microchip Firms While Making Production More Costly | reason.com China Here’s how much economists expect China’s GDP to grow this year | C Geopolitics & trade Biden, Scholz vow to punish Russia for war in Ukraine | R   Industries & companies Energy: Oil companies bring in $200 billion in profits in 2022 | C Crypto Crypto Companies Behind Tether Used Falsified Documents and Shell Companies to Get Bank Accounts | W Climate Clean hydrogen industry future depends on IRA tax credit | C Beyond markets What Will Make Hybrid Work Stick? | N Full-time office work is ‘dead,’ economist says | C