What I Am Reading

August 16 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Hard Landing In China, No Landing In US China’s economic pain has been the US’s economic gain, as it has lowered the prices Americans pay for goods from China, pulling US inflation lower. Today, we examine how China got into its economic morass and what policymakers there hope to do about it. … Also: With the US economy flying high and US retail sales in July up from June levels, might American consumers return China’s favor? It may be too soon to bet on a resumption of US consumers’ halted goods buying binge. … And: Joe pulls back the curtain on S&P 500 sector reclassification changes for an apples-to-apples look at technology companies’ changing market-cap representation in the index. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 14. Markets Investors Need to Worry About the Bond Market’s Return to Normality | W Column: Bonds, emerging stocks eye ‘geo-investment’ switches | R   Central banks Fed, economists make course correction on US recession predictions | R Russia’s Central Bank Can’t Stop Ruble Trouble | W US Is It Time to Worry About Consumer Debt? What Is Going On in Seven Charts | W Rather than a recession, we could be in a ‘richcession’ instead | C Weekly mortgage demand drops again, as interest rates match a 22-year high | C Amid growing hunger, Americans turn to fast-food joints — whose workers say they can’t afford to eat | Salon.com China Beijing Is Caught in a Catch-22 as Economy, Currency Stumble | W Geopolitics & trade The U.S. Is Turning Away From China, Its Biggest Scientific Partner, at a Precarious Time | W Vital Natural Gas Is Being Stashed in Caverns Beneath War-Torn Ukraine | W Estée Lauder’s Big Bet on China Is Looking Not So Pretty | W UK launches £1 billion fintech growth fund to compete with US | C   Industries & companies Aerospace: Boeing Taps Local-Born Ford Veteran to Chart China Recovery | W Autos: GM investing in Mitra Chem, startup building cheaper LFP EV batteries | C Corporate finance China Torpedoes Intel’s Bid to Buy Israeli Chip Maker Tower Semiconductor | W Intel scraps $5.4 billion acquisition of Tower Semiconductor | C EV maker VinFast is now worth more than the likes of Ford and GM | C Artificial Intelligence Companies Put AI to Work Outside the Cloud, Trimming Costs | W Climate Climate chief: World leaders at risk of ignoring fossil fuel time bomb | C Economics Tamed the Weather. Now the Weather Strikes Back. | W How to make the Inflation Reduction Act protect birds, people from climate change | The Hill Heat Pump vs. A/C: What you need to know about the heat-pump rebates in the Inflation Reduction Act. | Slate.com Beyond markets Nuclear Power Breakthrough Makes ‘Limitless’ Energy Possible | InvestorPlace Dozens of Websites Are Selling Knock-Off Ozempic and Mounjaro, No Prescription Required | W

August 15 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The 1970s All Over Again? The current alignment of economic forces—resulting in a growing economy with low unemployment, falling inflation, and stimulative fiscal policy balancing out restrictive monetary policy—seems too good to be sustainable. Is stagflation what comes next? … We doubt it. We don’t see inflation turning back up and economic growth slowing down as the decade progresses. We continue to place greater odds on “The Roaring 2020s” scenario (65% odds), a reboot of productivity driven growth à la the 1920s, than we do on “The Great Inflation 2.0” scenario (35%), a replay of the 1970s/early 1980s stagflation story. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 14. Markets Stocks Slip as Traders Lose Faith in Rate-Cut Bets | B   Global The Economic Losers in the New World Order | W Central banks Surprise China Rate Cut Only Highlights Tough Choices Facing Xi Jinping | B China is grappling with a ‘confidence crisis’, says economist | C Fed Interest Rate Debate Changing as Inflation Pressures Cool | B US I Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up | C US Retail Sales Exceeded Forecast in July, Showing Resilient Consumer | B Shoppers Boost Retail Sales for Fourth Straight Month | W Opinion | How Economists Missed the Big Disinflation | N US II Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge | C More Americans Are Ending Up Homeless—at a Record Rate | W Democrats can end poverty in America by fixing this one program | The Hill China China Slashes Rates, Suspends Youth Jobless Data as Economy Signals Sharper Downturn | W How much worse can China’s economic slowdown get? | R China Turns to Well-Honed Playbook: Cut Rates, Hide Data | W China Suspends Youth Unemployment Report | N Country Garden: Why Its Financial Crisis Poses a Risk to China | N Japan Roaring Back From Pandemic, Japan’s Economy Grows at 6% Rate | N Japan’s Economy Grows at 6% Pace in Second Quarter | W   Geopolitics & trade China Says Taiwanese Presidential Frontrunner Brings Risk of War | B China Will Hunt You Down | W Industries & companies Autos: Tesla launches cheaper versions of Model X and Model S electric cars | C Banks: Big Banks Are Supposed to Fail Without Causing Panics. Is That Even Possible? | W Banks: Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks | C Media: Streamflation Is Here and Media Companies Are Betting You’ll Pay Up | W Tech: Why the White House Went to Wall Street to Revive the U.S. Chips Industry | W Corporate finance Vietnamese EV maker VinFast debuts on the Nasdaq via SPAC merger | C Artificial Intelligence A.I. Can’t Build a High-Rise, but It Can Speed Up the Job | N Window-washing robots are working on Manhattan skyscrapers | C Crypto A Crypto Mystery: Who Controls This Fast-Growing Stablecoin? | W Climate Don’t expect the greens’ 1,600% mistake on ocean plastic to get them to change course | P

August 14 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Disinversion Is the federal budget deficit getting too big for the bond market to fund without yields moving higher? That seems to be a growing concern in both the bond and stock markets. In the past, bond yields were determined mostly by the Fed’s response to inflation, which is moderating; supply and demand didn’t matter much, but they may now. Today, we examine why this period of deficit widening is different than past ones. … We also examine two scenarios that could unwind the inversion of the yield curve—one bullish, one bearish—and recap data supporting both. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “The Man Who Saved the Game” (+ + +). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7. Markets Stock Rally Stalls Despite Better-Than-Expected Earnings Season | W 30-Year Inflation-Protected Treasuries (TIPS) Yield on Cusp of Exceeding 2% | B China Stocks Close to Erasing Politburo Gains Amid Economic Woes | B Bill Gross Slams Stock and Bond Bulls, Says Markets ‘Overvalued’ | B Oil Edges Lower After Seven-Week Rally Driven by Tighter Market   Central banks Fed Will Need to Wait Until 2024 to See If US Recession Can Be Avoided | B Goldman Pencils In First Fed Rate Cut for Second Quarter of 2024 | B US After Pulling Inflation Down, Gasoline and Food Threaten to Nudge It Up | W What Wall Street’s Top Recession Gauge Is Saying Now | W Georgia Is Ground Zero for Trump Exhaustion as Another Indictment Looms | W Joybird 2023 report: Best states in the U.S. for flipping homes | C Restaurants and Supermarkets Are Brawling Over Your Dollar | W Geopolitics & trade How U.S. and China Are Breaking Up, in Charts | W China criticizes visit of ‘troublemaker’ Taiwan VP to US | R Industries & companies Airlines: Airlines add premium, first class seats as travelers treat themselves | C Technology Amazon is racing to catch up in generative A.I. with custom AWS chips | C Corporate finance SoftBank is in talks to buy Vision Fund’s 25% stake in Arm, sources say | C Beyond markets Zuckerberg dismisses Musk for avoiding cage fight: ‘It’s time to move on’ | C

August 12 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Semis, Ag & FinTech The semiconductor industry appears to be entering a heyday, with sales rising on m/m and q/q bases, though not yet y/y. Analysts’ estimates have been rising, managements have been upbeat, and investors have bid up the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s share price index by 79% ytd. Everyone’s enthused about the potential impact of the AI revolution on chip demand. … At the other end of the spectrum, meat processors such as Tyson Foods are down on their luck, Jackie reports. … And: Traditional banks are getting a run for their money from forays into fintech by Apple, Walmart, and other heavyweights. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7. Markets S&P 500 Stock Traders on Notice as Options Shift Threatens Market Volatility | B   US Strong services costs lift US producer prices; inflation expectations dip | R China China’s Home Buyers Are Waiting Out the Property Slump | W Can China escape deflation? | E   Geopolitics & trade U.S. executive order on China shows it’s learning from Russia mistakes | C Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working | E U.S., China agree to double weekly flights between countries | C Industries & companies Retail: Organized retail crime: Nine states pass laws to crack down on theft | C Artificial Intelligence Nvidia A.I.-driven rally pushed earnings multiple higher than Tesla | C The ‘Godfather of AI’ Has a Hopeful Plan for Keeping Future AI Friendly | Wired AI Is Building Highly Effective Antibodies That Humans Can’t Even Imagine | Wired Zoom rewrites its policies to make clear that your videos aren’t used to train AI tools Beyond markets Perseid Meteor Shower 2023: When It Is and How to Watch the Peak | W Parlay Bets Are Big Profit-Makers for the Gambling Industry. What to Know. | BR

August 11 (Friday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Semis, Ag & FinTech The semiconductor industry appears to be entering a heyday, with sales rising on m/m and q/q bases, though not yet y/y. Analysts’ estimates have been rising, managements have been upbeat, and investors have bid up the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s share price index by 79% ytd. Everyone’s enthused about the potential impact of the AI revolution on chip demand. … At the other end of the spectrum, meat processors such as Tyson Foods are down on their luck, Jackie reports. … And: Traditional banks are getting a run for their money from forays into fintech by Apple, Walmart, and other heavyweights. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7. Markets S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as megacaps slide after producer prices data | R Tech Giants Lead Losses in Stocks as Yields Climb: Markets Wrap | B AI Stock Mania Triggers Dot-Com Bubble Flashbacks | W Oil prices could rise further this year, but 2024 demand to slow sharply: IEA | R Central banks Cooler July Inflation Opens Door to Fed Pause on Rates | W Global Hard Landing Is Here for Trade, Roiling World Export Champs | B US I University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: US Inflation Expectations Fall | B US Producer Prices Rose in July on Strength in Some Services Categories | B Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in July, higher than expected | C US Housing Market Recoups $3 Trillion Lost in Recent Slowdown | B Why Americans are struggling with car loans | C US II Will a recession decide the outcome of the 2024 election? | P Could a Third Party Finally Do It? | W China Chinese Property Giant Country Garden Holdings Sends Another Distress Signal | W Geopolitics & trade China’s Options for Retaliation Are Few After U.S. Investment Ban | W U.S. executive order on China shows it’s learning from Russia mistakes | C Industries & companies Consumer: Amazon Wants to Deliver Your Order Without a Box, But Neighbors May See Your Snore Strips | W Consumer: Amazon Cuts Dozens of House Brands as It Battles Costs, Regulators | W Retail: Organized retail crime: Nine states pass laws to crack down on theft | C Climate US awards $1.2 billion to Oxy, Climeworks-led carbon air capture hubs | R Climate complacency is killing us | The Hill Beyond markets Getting Paid Not to Work: Consulting Firms Offer $25,000 Stipend for Start Delay | B

August 10 (Thursday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Semis, Ag & FinTech The semiconductor industry appears to be entering a heyday, with sales rising on m/m and q/q bases, though not yet y/y. Analysts’ estimates have been rising, managements have been upbeat, and investors have bid up the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s share price index by 79% ytd. Everyone’s enthused about the potential impact of the AI revolution on chip demand. … At the other end of the spectrum, meat processors such as Tyson Foods are down on their luck, Jackie reports. … And: Traditional banks are getting a run for their money from forays into fintech by Apple, Walmart, and other heavyweights. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7. Markets Treasury yields slide after July CPI report | C   Central banks ECB is on back foot and for once it’s down to Germany | R Global food Heat, War and Trade Protections Raise Uncertainty for Food Prices | N US I CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Picks Up to 3.2% | N Inflation Picks Up but Modest Price Pressures Could Encourage Fed to Hold Rates Steady | W Inflation, and Housing Costs, Are Set to Turn a Corner | W Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2023, in one chart | C   US II Joe’s Bidenomics victory tour is a bust on Day One | P 5 reasons the American economy is surging under Biden | MSNBC Is More Job Hopping Among Younger Workers a Good Thing? | N Hospitals Shutter Maternity Wards Amid Falling Birthrates | W China Deflation Becomes a Threat to China’s Economy | N China Lifts Ban on Group Tours to U.S. and Other Countries, in Boost to Global Travel Industry | W Geopolitics & trade U.S. and China Poised to Drift Further Apart After Investment Ban | W China slams Biden’s order limiting U.S. overseas tech investment | C   Industries & companies Banks: The regulators’ new bank capital proposal ignores costs to consumers | The Hill Banks: ‘BRICS bank’ looks to local currencies as Russia sanctions bite | R Retail: Retailers may be using organized theft to cover up internal flaws | C   Artificial Intelligence The AI Frenzy Resurrects the Old SoftBank | W With AI, Hackers Can Simply Talk Computers Into Misbehaving | W Beyond markets Colleges Spend Like There’s No Tomorrow. ‘These Places Are Just Devouring Money.’ | W

August 09 (Wednesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Mostly About Consumers Moody’s downgrade of several banks’ credit ratings has some investment implications: It’s bearish for Financials stocks, but only over the short term, as it will hasten M&A activity. It will facilitate the US Treasury’s ability to fund the budget deficit without increasing Treasury bond auction interest rates, supporting our belief that last year’s peak in the 10-year Treasury yield won’t be breached this year. And it drives home the point that credit conditions are tight enough, which should help deter the Fed from further tightening. … Also: A look at consumers’ credit-card usage, rent inflation, and the spending habits of an important demographic—never married singles. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7. Markets Nasdaq, S&P 500 slip ahead of CPI data | R BofA’s Cabana Sees Yields Lower Over Time as Fed Shifts to Cuts | B   US Mortgage demand drops again after FHA loan interest rate hits 21-year high | C Energy Stocks, Long a Laggard, Gain Ground on Sturdy US Growth | B Minneapolis Controls US Inflation With Affordable Housing, Renting | B Why Fitch’s Downgrade of the U.S. Credit Rating Matters | W Secret memo details Trump plot to overturn 2020 loss to Biden: Report | C Europe Explainer: Why Germany’s property sector is in the dumps | R Italy’s Meloni defends bank windfall tax raid | R Italy Treads Fine Line as It Tries to Introduce Windfall Bank Tax | W   China China Slips Into Deflation in Warning Sign for World Economy | W Chinese Exports Fall at Steepest Pace Since February 2020 | W Geopolitics & trade White House to detail plans restricting some US investments in China – source | R Sputtering Trade Fuels Fears for a Connected World | W Industries & companies Financials: Banks’ Problems Aren’t Over, According to the Bond Market | W Financials: Moody’s bank downgrade in charts: U.S. Bank, Fifth Third, others under review | C Retail: Target to add Starbucks curbside pickup across the country | C Tech: CHIPS Act: Semiconductor makers wait for checks one year on | C Tech: U.S. chip sector talent gap emerges as makers spend billions | C Climate Earth Just Had Its Hottest Month Ever. How Six Cities Are Coping. | W Beyond markets The Biohacking Devotees Spending Hundreds of Thousands—Even Millions—to Enhance Their Homes | W

August 08 (Tuesday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Worry List Update Most investors and analysts are newly optimistic about the economic outlook and corporate earnings prospects. Like them, we see low odds of a hard landing anytime soon. That’s notwithstanding the yield curve’s ongoing recession signal. … But six worries, should they become more worrisome, could change our sanguine stance. We’re watching closely for fallout from the US commercial real estate crisis; a reinvigorated wage-price spiral; the off chance that consumers retrench; the soaring federal deficit, which could cause Bond Vigilantes to get more vigilant; and the possibility that Fed Chair Powell might take a page from predecessor Volcker’s playbook. (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7. Markets Surprise Stock-Market Rally Bulldozes Bearish Hedge Funds | W Why political gridlock is gold — and what that means for stocks in 2024 | P Market News: Italy Stocks Lead Losses in Europe After Windfall Tax on Banks | B Bond Yields Sink as Bank Jitters Spur Safety Dash: Markets Wrap | B Central banks Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggests interest rate hikes are at an end | C Fed’s Harker Says Central Bank May Be Able to Hold Rates Steady | B US Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession | CNN Business Fitch’s downgrade of US debt wasn’t a mistake — it was long overdue | The Hill China China’s Trade Plunges More Than Forecast in Blow to Recovery | B Chinese Exports Fall at Steepest Pace Since February 2020 | W Investors’ Short Bets on Chinese Developer Country Garden Jump to Record | B China Drafts Rules for Facial-Recognition Use | W Europe Italian bank shares slide after government surprises with windfall tax | C   Geopolitics & trade After attacking Ukraine wheat exports, Russia faces own shipping challenge | R U.S.-Made Cluster Munitions Fuel Ukrainian Counteroffensive | W Industries & companies Autos: 621 Miles of EV Range? You’ll Need This Chinese Company’s Solid State Battery | PCMag Autos: Elon Musk Calls Cybertruck Tesla’s ‘Best Product Ever.’ Here Comes the Test. | W Autos: American Cars Are Developing a Serious Weight Problem | B Banks: Moody’s downgrades US banks, warns of possible cuts to others | R Banks: SoftBank Plans Fresh AI Bets After First Investment Gains in 18 Months | W Media: Disney reportedly creates task force to explore A.I. and cut costs | C Pharma: Weight-Loss Drug Wegovy Cuts Heart Attack, Stroke Risk by 20% in New Study | W Climate The climate-friendly cows bred to belch less methane | R Opinion | As Climate Change Worsens, Big Oil’s Support for Clean Energy Is Lacking | N Artificial Intelligence Hospitals use A.I. like Microsoft Nuance’s DAX app to fight burnout | C Stability AI’s Lead Threatened by Departures, Concerns Over CEO | B Corporate finance Paramount to Sell Simon & Schuster to KKR for $1.62 Billion | W Beyond markets Scientists create major nuclear fusion breakthrough twice | P SEC WhatsApp Case: Wells Fargo, BNP Among Firms Paying Millions in Penalties | B

August 07 (Monday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Guess What? This is ironic: Just when the most widely anticipated recession of all times is no longer widely anticipated, July’s employment report suggests that the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators is weakening. … With the consensus now elbow-to-elbow with us in the no-recession camp, our contrarian instincts are on full alert. The alternative scenarios of two prominent financial market prognosticators may give investors pause and keep the stock market treading water through September. … Also: Friday’s employment report does support a scenario of gradually moderating inflation, notwithstanding some observers’ views to the contrary. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “The Beanie Bubble” (+ + +). (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 31. Markets Recession Worries Have Investors Buying Treasuries, Doubting Stocks | B The Stock Market’s Rally Paused. It’s Time to Buy the Dip. | BR China Bonds Are Winners With More Government Support, Invesco Says | B Oil prices rise after Saudi, Russia cuts and Russian oil export hub attack | C Central banks The Fed Can’t Keep Everyone Happy | BR Investors Bet That High Rates Will Linger | W   US Next job-market challenge: the Great Unresignation | R Need to Hire Workers in a Hot Job Market? Let Them Do Some Remote Work | W Is the Economy Headed for a Soft Landing? It’s Too Early to Say We’ve Avoided a Recession | BR US Ratings Downgrade Raises Government Shutdown Threat | B The Risks Hidden in Public Pension Funds | N Inflation Will Weigh on Back-to-School Shopping: Forecasts | BR Asia China or India? How to Invest in the Coming Asia Boom | B The Era of Ultracheap Stuff Is Under Threat | W Industries & companies Autos: America’s Most Tech-Forward City Has Doubts About Self-Driving Cars | W Energy: Big Oil’s Talent Crisis: High Salaries Are No Longer Enough | W Financials: Property Loans Are So Unappealing That Banks Want to Dump Them | B Media: ‘Barbie’ to top $1 billion at the global box office Sunday | C Retail: Buy Walmart Stock. It’s Quietly Growing Into a Retail Tech Titan. | BR Tech: How U.S. microchips are fueling Russia’s military — despite sanctions | C Corporate finance Siemens Energy books $2.4 billion wind turbine hit in Q3 2023 results | C SharkNinja NYSE debut shows challenges for China-dependent companies | C Trucking firm Yellow files for bankruptcy protection after loading up on debt | C Climate Zero-Emission EVs Are a Myth. Why Teslas Aren’t Really ‘Clean.’ | BR Technology Will AI be an economic blessing or curse? History offers clues | R   Beyond markets ‘Inflation’ Reality Can Be Found In Adam Smith, Not ‘Fiscal Theory’ | FO

August 05 (Saturday) Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Oil, Cat & Flying Cars With US economic growth so strong and OPEC so disciplined, oil inventories are rapidly depleting. The surpluses that have tethered global oil prices over the past year will disappear next year as consumption overtakes production, forecasts the EIA. Jackie examines the reasons and the recent performance of the S&P 500 Energy sector and its component industries. … Also: The US economy’s vitality was evident in Caterpillar’s remarkable Q2, a testament to the strength of demand for building new homes, mining minerals, and constructing factories. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: Will cars ever fly? (subscribers’ link) YRI Daily Markets Overview Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 31. Markets Stock Market’s Weekly Loss a Warning Shot to Investors | WSJ Stocks Have Had a Great Year. Cue the September Effect. | WSJ Stocks, Treasuries, Commodities Sold Off This Week | B US JPMorgan backs off recession call even with ‘very elevated’ risks | C A Goldilocks Job Market Is in Sight | WSJ U.S. Adds 187,000 Jobs in July as Economy Cools | N A 5% US Mortgage Rate Is Seen as Tipping Point to Unlock Supply | B Back to school shopping: Prices rise for backpacks, notepads, pens | C China China Pleases Parents With Plan to Limit Kids’ Smartphone Use | WSJ Geopolitics & trade GOP hopeful Chris Christie surprise trip to Ukraine, visits Zelenskyy | C China Embassy in Moscow Rips Russia Border Entry-Denial Incident in Rare Move | B Russia says JPMorgan stops processing its grain payments | R   Industries & companies Communications Services: Google offers on-campus hotel ‘special’ to lure workers back in | C Media: ‘Barbie’ box office nears $1 billion heading into third weekend | C Pharma: First Pill for Postpartum Depression Is Approved by FDA | WSJ Corporate finance Exclusive: UBS nears major investment bank restructuring | R Technology Why ChatGPT Is Getting Dumber at Basic Math | WSJ When A.I. Lies About You, There’s Little Recourse | N Climate Heat Pumps, Electric Cars, Home Solar: The Climate Dads Have Arrived | B